squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Yeah I feel like there much be some garbage team out there with a black hole in one of their three outfield spots and an intriguing reliever or an 8th starter or something. Replacing Canario for 2024 purposes, either external or internal, can't be at all difficult.
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Happ has been the 14th best outfielder in baseball over the last two years and is projected to be the 30th best outfielder in baseball this year. If we end up with two other corner outfield guys who can comfortably exceed that, we'll be in amazing shape.
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It's just a stupid, bad faith argument. He can go back and pick and choose the players who signed big contracts and turned out good and use that as an indictment against the Cubs FO, because, obviously all those players were desperate to play here, while ignoring all the terrible contracts, the internal development, the very good position the Cubs currently find themselves in, etc. Just sign only good players, idiots, what, like it's hard? The Royals just committed 4 more years and $111m more to a shortstop who is projected to outproduce Dansby by 0.1 fWAR next year. But yes, dick sucking jokes, nice.
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The Royals had a top infield prospect in all of baseball, gave him 150 starts his rookie year while he OBPed under .300, let him develop into a stud his next year with another 158 games and locked him into a contract where they pay him like $43m over the next four years total, and and in response to that you....want to give Cody Bellinger and/or Matt Chapman, each projected around 3 WAR, $20-$30m a year for 3-7 years while PCA, Shaw, Alcantara, etc all sit around in the upper minors.
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Cubs payroll is, as of today, $50m higher than the Royals, they have a top 5 farm system while the Royals project as the worst, and have a 12-15 WAR advantage based on current rosters going into the season. Absolutely horsefeathers pathetic.
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We can't just pick and choose which version of Bellinger we like the best though right? He had 26 home runs last year, good for 41st in baseball. That's 6 more than PCA hit last year in the minors (in 56 more PAs). The 'last year was not a fluke' argument still assumes he traded power for contact right? That's not to say that even 85% of 2023 Bellinger isn't very useful, but even the most pro-Bellinger people here aren't expecting a 15% K rate AND 40+ HRs.
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This kinda establishes the Dylan cease market right? Because if so, I’m in.
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Two things that ultimately don’t matter much (the odds of the cubs winning the division, the cubs chances of being ranked as the best farm system in baseball) improved with that trade
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Cubs sign Hector Neris to 1yr /$9m with options
squally1313 replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
We should probably pencil that into 2025 when we think about future dollars available right? 90 pitchers threw more than 60 games last year, he's essentially done it the last 5 years (when you prorate out 2020). -
You could make the argument for that as a personal preference, but it would seem to go very against the grain given how much they value up the middle defense.
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Jake Odorizzi as essentially a free flyer is fine. Can never have enough pitching. Rosario doesn't do much for me, Crawford I see the value but when you already have a Madrigal and a Mastro and a Hoerner and Morel/Madrigal/Mastro middle infield plan in case of a Swanson injury, there's probably not any room on the bench for him.
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Kinda forgot he could play outfield too, good call.
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/ Some more discussion about Zips projections and the other options out there, with a few Cubs names (Busch, Chapman, Madrigal, Imanaga) showing up on the 'most controversial' lists. Separately, there's a blurb about Tony Kemp that makes me think he's an intriguing bench option, though I don't think we have the space for him at the moment.
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Just because he gets reps at third doesn't mean he'd be a good first baseman. If that's the case, then we can no longer give Bellinger a point vs Chapman in the 'position versatility' argument for playing first base The rest seems incredibly dependent on the bat. Can he increase the walk rate, decrease the K rate, or validate the 40 HR/year pace he was on last year? If so (ie: if he improves on last year), he can DH, play first, start the 'how valuable is Hoerner in a trade' conversations. If he's a 115ish wRC bat (higher than all of his projections) without a defensive position....that's a DH that starts 100 games while letting the normal starters take 'breaks' there. And honestly trade bait. If he's worse offensively? Get what you can, emergency backup, etc.
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29th in wRC, by far the best offensive projection on the team (Chapman 62, Happ 89, Busch 98, Morel 140, lol Cody 152, Mervis 153, Dansby 162). Just hate his base running and defense.
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The goalposts keep moving. I mean, Zobrist, Heyward, Lackey, and Chapman weren't even on the 2015 team. Travis Wood gave you all of 1.2 fWAR in 2015 and 2016 (all in 2016!). They brought the kids up in 2015, let them sink or swim (KB and Russell have over 500 PAs as rookies, first time for Soler over 100 PAs, rushed Schwarber up), and then figured out where they wanted to supplement from there.
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Dansby projected for 25th, Hoerner for 31st. For anyone who's curious, Happ is 83rd, Busch is 89th, Seiya is 96th in the top 100. So yeah, 7 in the top 100 would be pretty impressive, and more than the Dodgers (5) and Braves (6). However, that again makes the lack of top end talent pretty glaring given that we knew the huge gap in overall talent. Dodgers go 4, 18, 20, 43, 48, Braves go 1, 16, 21, 37, 39, 52.
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I know, the projections are pessimistic, wrong, whatever. But Bellinger isn't projected to be a 3 WAR guy next year, and that is presumably with the computers thinking he'll spend most of his time in centerfield (and crediting him accordingly). So if you want to give PCA a legitimate shot, you're either waiting for an injury, temporary solution, or you just signed a 2.5 fWAR first baseman to a long term deal, $20+m/year deal. Basically: Sign Chapman because we have the money lying around anyways. Win the division with that team. Upgrade from there.
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I guess, to look at it another way, if you want to go all in on immediate success, which is fine....wouldn't you focus on taking those prospects that are all two years away in your mind, but in theory have plenty of value on the market, and trading those guys for immediate contributors? Why beat everyone else on the open market for two non-elite guys when you could consolidate all this talent that isn't ready and you want to block anyways into guys with higher ceilings or more reasonable contract terms? Or is that something else that you don't think Hoyer does?
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I'm pretty confident that we'll be the betting and projection favorite for the division on opening day. We have, based on the rankings that came out today, 5 prospects in the top 50, all of which are in the upper levels of the minor leagues. We currently have zero contracts outside of the dead money on the books this year that annoy me. The next three years are going to be just fine. There's no path to becoming the Dodgers or Braves in the short term, and there probably never was at any point this offseason. Bellinger and Chapman doesn't put us anywhere close.
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Let's pretend that's the case. What's your plan then? Fill the lineup with long term contracts of non-elite guys?
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But neither of these guys are that good. You don't worry about prospects when you discuss Juan Soto or Ohtani or Jose Ramirez or whatever. Chapman is projected as the 29th best offensive player, which seems generous, and Bellinger is projected for the 81st best, which seems pessimistic. Split the difference and these guys are the 50th or so best offensive players in baseball that would be locked in at over $20m a year. And we just took ourselves financially out of any elite talent hitting the market.
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No one treats them like gospel. They're a third party, unbiased projection that people, in my opinion, should prefer over gut instincts or biased/selective memory because on a large scale they will prove closer to being accurate than anything we have.
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The issue with signing both those guys to me is that that's essentially your team for the Dansby Swanson era (final name still to be determined), and there's no chance for me that it turns into a powerhouse. We lose the financial flexibility to pick up elite level talent, and we severely limit the opportunity for any of the offensive prospects to turn into elite talent for the Cubs. I'm generally pro the 2023 team, the current roster, and dealing with having too much talent when we get there. But when your offense through 2026 is Happ, Bellinger, Seiya, Chapman, Swanson, Hoerner, a catcher, a DH, and a first baseman/centerfielder, and you can't afford an elite talent to fill one of those slots, you have an offense without an elite bat and very little chance for one to develop.
