squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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1. You made a 84 win team. What else are you overpaying for to get to 90+ wins? 2. What is the bolded based on? The lack of three team trades?
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Much different goal posts if you want to try and be a consistent 84 win team. We're one of the Boras guys away from that.
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If you swap out PCA for Bellinger, Kim for Madrigal/Wisdom, Busch for Naylor, and Bieber for Wicks and Wesneski, congrats, you've added 2.3 projected fWAR to the roster, we can round up to 3 for backups even though you just traded the infield ones away. Guardians players add $20m to the payroll and Bieber is a FA after this year, Bellinger is another $25m, Kim is another $8m. That reduces the likelihood of an Imanaga signing by quite a bit, and taking away his 3.2 fWAR you.....basically end up right back where you started. But, hey, let's give you Imanaga too. Why not. In your 'create the ideal offseason', using trades no other GM would agree to, you created an 84 win team.
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Wait are you saying the Guardians don't want to give up their ace for the chance at a 7th starter, a backup to Jose Ramirez, and Matt Mervis
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The Cubs have 7 dudes on the top 100 list per MLB (PCA, Horton, Caissie, Busch, Shaw, Alcantara, Triantos). All of their ETAs are either 2024 and 2025.
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What did you realistically want to happen this offseason? Not being snarky, just curious what kind of path would have gotten us to 'dominant' (projected for 90 wins?).
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Half the people here think that Jed has like, the Ten Commandments of Responsible Spending nailed to his office wall based on less than 2 complete contending offseasons (and to call us a contending team going into last offseason is a pretty big stretch), based essentially on frustration that we aren't the Dodgers and it's been a boring offseason if you're a fan of any team besides the Dodgers. We have no idea, we just didn't get Shohei and everyone is antsy and wants it to be baseball season even though it's still 7 weeks away.
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I kinda agree that it was a little excessive in terms of the length, but I guess it was a testament to how rotted out the whole organization was at the time. Hoyer basically took a year and a half to flip the roster into a team that was in playoff contention on the last weekend. Obviously there’s a way to go to be in the ‘best team in baseball’ conversation, but then again the a big reason we got there in 2015-2017 was because we got to stack high draft picks from bottoming out for as long as we did.
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Man you must have really hated Epstein after his first three years then (.411)
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I think if we get just a few dozen more message board posts freaking out about it, it might break the dam wide open
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Yeah but that's a different argument than what you made earlier. Did you want him to pick one of these four, say that that is his guy, and overpay for him two months ago?
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Is that an approach that you think would lead to the Cubs being one of the best teams in baseball? Are there obvious examples of other teams doing this? Weren't we all complaining about how long the Ohtani saga dragged out? Why didn't Friedman sign him in November?
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Yeah but what is that based on? Not signing Cody Bellinger like the other 29 GMs?
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We've been in win now/contending mode for like 7 months since Hoyer took over. Did you want him to go balls out after the 2021 year where we went 27-45 in the second half? We won 74 games in 2022 and then he turned that into an 83 win team in 2023 after picking up what looks to be the best shortstop of the options that were available when you consider both production and contract. Yeah he should have picked up more relievers, but that's obviously not going to turn any team into 'the best team in the NL'. There wasn't a better offensive player traded at the deadline than Candelario, he just sucked for the Cubs. His 2021 first rounder is already in the major league rotation, his 2022 first rounder is a top 3 pitching prospect in baseball, and his 2023 pick destroyed the lower minors and is a top 50 prospect going into this year. Both those latter two guys could legitimately be at Wrigley by the all star break. We were never getting Ohtani. Morel for Soto straight up was like, a debate around here, and then the Yankees put together a package that, per Baseball Trade Values, almost tripled the value of Morel. Outside of those two guys, what was the path that he could have taken to get us to 'challenging for the best record in the NL'?
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Honestly spring training is way too long for a sport like baseball. These dudes are all training year round anyways, it doesn't take 6 weeks to learn signs and bunt coverages. Dexter Fowler shocked the team on February 25th and then went out and OPSed 1100 in April that year. Jed obviously has multiple plans and has been in plenty of contact with Boras and the names he wants. As long as they're all still out there, no one is dictating anything.
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So are any statistics real to you besides like, home runs?
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How many runs do you assign to hitting a single
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can you elaborate
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I get your point. All things being equal, that means we have a 20% chance of being the team left without a dance partner. Call it 30% if you want to doom boner some mystery teams, whatever. But, all other things are not equal: The Cubs have a perfect sized cushion under the luxury tax and all signs point to them coming right up against it and are perfectly in the part of the win curve where these kinds of additions are maximized Blue Jays are already into the luxury tax and just lost an arbitration hearing to the face of their franchise, if that tells you anything about their willingness to throw a ton of money around. Signing any of these dudes would put the Rangers into the luxury tax. The Angels are projected for 77 wins and a 3% chance to win their division. The Giants have a 3.3% chance to win their division. The price of the three, or two, remaining isn't going to suddenly shoot up once a couple of them sign. It's much more likely teams take themselves out of contention and the cost goes down.
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Sure but these things don't all happen instantaneously. I don't think one signing ups the price of the others.
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Do you think it's possible that, for lack of a better phrase here, he's kinda indifferent between the choices and is fine waiting it out? It's not like some team in the central (or obviously anywhere else) is going to spend 9 figures to pull the rug out from under us. Toronto signs one of the four....great, that most likely takes them off the table as an option for the other three. Etc etc.
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To clarify, they are 9th in 2024 payroll at the moment at $204m, this supposed $30m-$32m puts them in 5th (behind NYY, NYM, Houston, and Philly). That's pure dollars spent. Luxury tax they are in 11th, theoretically moving up to 7th-8th.
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Lots of good answers above but also depends on what you mean/desire by 'truly competing' in 2024. 21% chance to win the division and 38% chance to make the playoffs as it stands now is competing to some. One of those big names makes it what....30%/50%? Conversely, we could sign all four of them and not be at the Dodgers/Braves level.
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Dead cat bounce for the Cardinals in that they gave Wainwright 21 almost entirely uncompetitive starts in his quest to get to 200 wins after they dropped out of contention. Having said that, agreed with most of the above...team is designed to project well. It's the Cardinals, so they'll maybe find some way to stay healthy and have the hard hit balls land on the track instead of over the wall, but they are definitely going to need to thread the needle a little bit. This is also a really expensive team for their standards already, and that's with the Sonny Gray contract backloaded. FG released projected standings today, Cubs at 81.5 wins, Cards at 84.4. If we can turn this rumored $30m into 3 wins, should put us at the top.
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2023 xwOBA Mike Tauchman: .345 Chris Morel: .346 Cody Bellinger: .331
