squally1313

In AAA: Jared Young: 376 PAs, .430 wOBA PCA: 158 PAs, .365 wOBA Canario: 161 PAs, .373 wOBA Young has 7 and 5 years on those dudes and plays a significantly less valuable position and is in general a significantly less valuable asset to the franchise. It's ok to say he's a better hitter right now.

Cubs outfielders in the last week: Happ 207 wRC Suzuki 143 wRC Cody 120 wRC Tauchman 105 wRC We should continue playing these dudes.

I'm fine with that, think he brings a lot of unique value and most likely 150 quality back end of the rotation innings at around or below market rates. Plus he's just awesome so another point for that.

Hoerner has won me over as a top of the lineup guy through both irrational (hustle, rah rah, etc) and rational (that second half OBP legitimately shocked me, in a good way) reasons. Could make an argument for the two slot, given his normally good bat control skills, but lead off is fine. Morel should be below Happ and Swanson. Sub 300 OBP in the second half and not enough power to overcome it. Happ is going to streak in terms of batting average, but he is pretty much always going to take his walks. Dansby is the new whipping boy, I get it, but 108 wRC in September (and if we want to go even more micro, two home runs in his last 4 games) plays for me. Happ Hoerner Suzuki Belli Swanson Morel Mastro/Wisdom - they seem like polar opposite hitters, so play the matchup based on the starters Gomes (he's been pretty bad since an unreal July, don't think we should solely lean on him, especially against Colorado, 29th in steals) Tauchman (September OBP: .356, Aug-Sept OBP: .358, second half OBP: .369)

The Brewers got 320 innings from the following guys: Bryse Wilson: 73 IP, 2.59 ERA Joel Payamps: 68 IP, 2.51 ERA Hoby Milner: 61.1 IP, 1.91 ERA Elvis Pegeuro: 61.1 IP, 3.38 ERA Devin Williams: 56.2 IP, 1.59 ERA But yes, the difference is Craig Counsell is just smarter than David Ross.

Basically everything that TT said, but I find this part especially questionable. You spent a couple paragraphs talking about how Ross didn't use Canario or PCA enough and then blamed that for....injuries to Alzolay, Fulmer, Bellinger in May, and Madrigal? How exactly were those two outfielders, the 8th and 11th best hitters at Iowa with over 100 PAs per wRC, 1/14 with 1 home run and 2 walks combined in the majors, supposed to help avoid those? I'm not saying that those guys can't seriously contribute to a future good Cubs team (or even a present good Cubs team), but....the entire Iowa team has an .841 OPS this year. It's just a completely different sport. It's bad luck, I guess, that our top prospects support (in a post-Mervis world) happened to be pure outfielders which is the last thing we need. But unless you wanted like, the Ian Happ, second baseman, experiment again, hands are kinda tied. The bullpen is full of bad pitchers trying to back up a rotation that has been for the last month essentially one seriously overworked ace and 4 dudes either outright sucking or peripherally sucking. It'd be great if Ross had the 'Devin Williams' or 'Josh Hader' or hell, even 'Josh Suter' button to press, but he doesn't. I keep hearing those dudes are coming, and maybe they are. But we had like three decent, non elite pitchers (Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather) and a bunch of garbage. No one's going to be able to do anything with that over a 6 month period.

I don't really see any reason why you'd think we're in for another rebuilding year next year. Stroman and Bellinger leaving frees up Stroman and Bellinger money, Hendricks frees up some more, Heyward finally comes off the books. Yeah we're looking at salary bumps for Ian, Dansby, and Hoerner (none of which are overpays), but don't think we're just going to sit on our hands. Quick glance at Cots shows us with $50ish million in salaries to give out for next year while still being able to stay under the threshold.

The team I like should miss the playoffs, he says, intelligently.

Very, very dumb take

I've 'officially' turned this game off like 6 times. Such a dumb sport.

Hardass David Ross thinks whatever he's going to do the rest of this game is more important than going out and punching the ump in the face

oh jesus christ horsefeathers YOU

we went a couple years without even really considering the concept of Fake Rallies. At the very least, at least we got those back

lollllllllllllllllll

I maintain that our hitting is fine (115 wRC in September before tonight, which probably means it's actually higher with 14 guys reaching base). The Bellinger part of it needs to be maintained, and there's spots for not super expensive improvement. The pitching fell apart, and needs to be seriously addressed going into next year. Even if Wicks, Horton, etc hit their optimistic projections, they still need to fill a lot of innings. Edit: 9th in September wRC, 27th in the FG Clutch stat, however you measure that. Spent the first half being unlucky, started playing even better and had the luck turn hard, and then lost both of those boosts at the very worst time we could.

His only pitching move being a dude with a 4.43 FIP remains totally bewildering.

lol didn't expect it to be that bad

Really I think the bullpen decisions are just a sign that there's a ton going on behind the scenes that we aren't privy too. Stroman rushing through his recovery, looking pretty good, and then disappearing being a key example. Merryweather getting 7 innings this month after 14 last month is another.

Not going to go through all the specific situations, but Merryweather and his very reliable numbers pretty much all year having pitched once since 9/10 seems less than ideal. Jesus what is going on.

lol this is so funny

Yeah I mean, totally disagree. Becoming more and more likely that the path to the playoffs includes taking the final series in Milwaukee against the Brewers, and then taking that momentum right into another 3 game set in Milwaukee. This is not me saying that there's anything more than a miniscule chance of a deep run, but why not give it a shot. So we'll have a 7% chance of winning it all while the favorites have a 20% chance. Just take the shot.

I mean, who knows. All those other teams suck too. Go surprise us all and beat three teams with nothing to play for. The thing that's a little frustrating is that for most of the main hitters, this isn't their first time in a high pressure environment. Happ has been here plenty, Dansby and Bellinger have rings, Suzuki has plenty of success in Japan and has also been awesome. Still think this is more of a pitching shortage, but wasn't expecting to see these guys press the way that they have been.

Un horsefeathers real all around right there

Couple things here so I can distract myself from the actual game: 1. I think batting order is an easy thing to point to when you're evaluating a manager, correctly or incorrectly, just because everyone has their preference on who the best hitters are, and those guys should bat more than the less good hitters. 2. Ross, for whatever reason, has made it clear that he's only going to change his lineup like, on a monthly basis. Some guys are like that, Maddon went back and forth, whatever. I rarely think those lineups are the most effective way to group these hitters, and I think in particular it almost seems like he gives Dansby and Nico undue offensive credit when an unusually large part of their (substantial value) comes from their defense. Some hypothetical bad defensive first baseman who OPSes .830 is way less valuable than Hoerner, but he should probably get more at bats. 3. In the short run, I really don't think it matters. Suzuki with a .350 OBP is like 7% more likely to come through than Dansby with a .325 OBP, and these are made up numbers. I think the advanced stats back this up.