squally1313

JAG

Yeah good call, I'm actually at the moment pretty optimistic on the pitching situation in terms of just having enough major league talent to cover the innings. Obviously pitchers break, but in a full health situation you basically have: Assad (can probably get to 150 innings) Brown (125 innings) Wesneski (150 innings) Horton (100-120 innings total, but probably like...60 with the Cubs?) to cover the 5th spot, spot starts, potential injuries, and the multi inning reliever roles. If you can have three of them on the roster at any given point, it really lessens the need to turn to Neris/Leiter/Adbert (and hopefully Merryweather) night after night and you can let Counsell pick spots. Hendricks and Smyly forcing their way back into the mix gives us a good problem to have. (as an aside, I'm sure most people are aware of this but I wasn't until this year and it's been a godsend, every time I look at it I see new useful information: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cubs)

I don't disagree, was just saying in his first month last year (June) he put up a .375 wOBA and then the rest of the year it was .284. Maybe they're trying to avoid all the mania, for better or for worse.

Yeah there seems to be some real improvement there, which is cool. I guess I can see, given how hot he started and then how hard he crashed last year, that they want to manage expectations and not stir things up. But with their injury problems and theoretical playoff aspirations, might need to press a little.

WIcks up to 32nd in baseball in FIP for pitchers with more than 20 innings. He qualifies for the normal leaderboards but wanted to see where Shota fell (2nd). Get a full strength Steele back to go with those two and 2023 second half Taillon and I suddenly worry a lot less about the whole 5th starter problem (though a dominant Horton would be fine)

Looking for a player that is considered a 'current prospect' and also has already successfully ascended to the major leagues might be a tough ask

2024 Cubs are undefeated in games where they don't have Garrett Cooper on the active roster

This seems like an inordinate amount of fly balls lost in the sun/lights so far this year

Cody turning back into a dude would really lift the ceiling on this team

Now if he could just look like an adequate offensive third baseman…

This seems almost entirely revisionist history (Hosmer out OPSed Bellinger by 60 points in 2022), but also it's probably not worth relitigating. So, sure.

I know this is very on brand for me, but....Hosmer had a 234/280/330 line after all of 31 games. We cut him and everyone was pumped to bring up Mervis and then he put up a noticeably worse line: 167/242/289. Making moves for the sake of making moves =/= improvement.

Just happy for you guys that you have someone new to complain about

If it is Morel, which I doubt but is a possibility, seems weird they would choose to go with Cooper, Mervis, and Busch all at the same time....unless it's now Busch's turn to be the 'well his bat is so good, if he can just be passable at third...' guy.

I've been told by a bunch of people that Garrett Cooper sucks, maybe it's for him

The issue in the second paragraph being that there are currently 7 teams per FG with a less than 20% chance of making the playoffs, and of the other 23 teams that would/should consider themselves in 2024 contention mode, about 22.5 of them would love a starter who can go three times through or an immediate 8th inning guy. Obviously someone like an Almonte can be had for lower level prospects, but not sure if we can simultaneously look at Shaw/PCA/Caissie/Alcantara/Horton as both imminently arriving reinforcements and also the only prospects with enough value to get the kind of players we're referring to.

It's possible, though we would have had like a week now to have a different conversation around that fact pattern if it was truly 'for the good of the team'. I went back to the end of 2022 and he was weirdly pretty productive his last three starts before being shut down (16 IP, 4 ER, 17/4 K/BB). But the stretch before it was probably the roughest stretch he's had up until this year (5 starts, 23 innings, 21 ER, 7 HRs), so I get your point. As a bright side though, it shows that he can break pretty hard for a month or so and not necessarily need to hang it up.

I know the common refrain here is to write off Hendricks, but I'm wondering if there's a way to configure the bullpen to allow Hendricks to become a one time through the order guy and pair him with Brown or Horton as a way of keeping their innings limited. The issue with it being Brown is that it basically takes away your best option at a multi-inning fireman in the bullpen, and the issue with it being Horton is that he's probably just not ready yet. That multi inning role is mayyyybe Wesneski or Keegan, but that's leaning a lot on a small recent sample size over a longer track record of being bad. Assad is the guy in a different world where we can just go get a #3 starter, but in April that's not realistic. As I type it out, there's not really an easy answer. With Steele out I still think you just have to grit your way through it and try to keep the pen stocked for Hendricks days (made more difficult by Assad and Brown not being true starters, Shota being used to longer rest, Taillon still ramping up). But in a month, with Steele back, Taillon at full strength, a little more clarity on Assad/Brown (and Wes/Thompson), and expected progression from Horton, maybe you end up in a spot where you can go Steele, Shota, Taillon, Assad, and Hendricks/Horton, with Brown and maybe Wes/Thompson being able to give you multiple innings out of the pen and leaving Azlolay/Neris/Leiter/Smyly for Counsell to play matchups in the late innings. It sounds dumb to just kick the can down the road on this, but we're still dealing with small sample sizes and there's a good amount of clarity to come out of the next 4-6 weeks. And, for better or for worse, we've basically gotten through the first 20 games in a worse situation (without Taillon) than where we are now.

You can go back to bed, no game today.

On one hand....Hendricks is at 33% HR/FB, which is 5th for pitchers with 10+ innings this year (Adbert is first at 40%). I went back to 1970 and no who has thrown 50 or more innings has had a HR/FB rate above 32%. On the other hand, the loud contact is very much there, and even regressing that rate to a normal level still leads to pretty ugly numbers (vs someone like Adbert where the path is a lot clearer). Still have the same opinion I had this today (and honestly, 5 K/0 BB, one extra base hit in 4 innings is a step in the right direction). But there's plenty of work to be done.

I can't believe I'm doing this, but why can't that last sentence say '....it has been great in his last 55 PAs a .365 OBP'? Why can't we say '...it has been great in his last 13 PAs a .385 OBP'. Why do you get to cherry pick a specific number of PAs that paints him in the worst light possible? The whole conversation started with some criticism of Jed not putting together enough depth on the roster. Someone else referenced the last 7 games for Cooper to ignore his overall successful season, you're doing the same thing for Tauchman to ignore his overall .364 OBP for the year. Those initial games count, and unless you decide to really cherry pick somehow (which I guess wouldn't be surprising!), the good things they did prior to the last 7 games/31 PAs contributed to us having a good record (which we still have!). What is Jed supposed to do here, just have a dozen fringe starters lying around so we can dump players when they have a bad week? How is that even remotely realistic or recommended?

Once the fourth outfielder stopped running a 500 OBP, clearly Jed should have woken up from his nap and replaced him with the next guy who can do the same.

Does this part of his stats not count or something

Cooper was discussed plenty. Tauchman had a .364 OBP going into today. I remain so confused on what you guys expect from an MLB bench. They’re backups for a reason.