squally1313

Big picture, Adbert is a weird case because he's so unique from the rest of the bullpen and their problems because he just flat out doesn't walk anybody. His stuff isn't overly filthy, he doesn't have the double digit strikeout rate, but he doesn't give free passes and (until this year) keeps the ball in the ballpark. Which is the small picture point of his struggles this year. One, he gave up 6 home runs over 77 innings in 2022 and 2023, and has given up 3 in less than 9 innings this year. A 3.12 HR/9 rate won't continue for any pitcher, but especially not for someone with his larger data set. And then, yes, blown saves are the ultimate metric, but those being tied to 3 outings with a one run lead and giving up a solo home run (and nothing else) is about the most 'unfair' way to rack up three blown saves.

A couple things here, now that I'm tired and somewhat regretting the tact I took last night. 1. The reason I get frustrated with complaining about bullpen construction is that I've yet to see an actual alternate plan that would have solved anything. I look through the list of relievers who signed sorted by AAV, and yes, with the benefit of 3 weeks worth of 2024 data, you can piece together an alternate reality offseason where things look better. But I mean....$19m/year for Hader until he's 35? The Kimbrel experience again? Robert Stephenson hasn't pitched yet this year and basically has 40 innings of Tampa magic to point to as any recent success, and he got 3 years. Chapman? Reynaldo Lopez got a 3 year deal after being equally as effective as Neris last year. Which is a long way to say that I don't see this as some fatal shortcoming/deficiency in the front office as much as it's crapping out on a dice roll two years in a row (maybe! it's only the middle of april). I also don't think we're alone in having this problem (16th in overall bullpen value since the beginning of last year), and trading for these guys is really hard. To use Jason Foley, the trade value site has him as more valuable than a Triantos, Rojas, or Assad (you'd need roughly 4 Matt Murtons). Do we want to trade those guys for 70 innings a year? 2. When I think about sustainable ways to build a bullpen, I basically see two paths. One is to either have an endless amount of money or a sufficient amount of cheap/controllable offensive and starting pitching talent that you can just throw 8 figure contracts at multiple dudes with track records and tilt the odds of success in our favor. We're not in that situation, which is a Ricketts problem and/or a Jed problem, but not necessarily a Jed/bullpen construction problem (at least to me). The other is to just have, to use an old term from around here, 'waves' of arms that throw upper 90s that moonlight in the pen until they find a third pitch or (to be blunt) break. I've been told it's coming, and maybe it is. But also, maybe it's guys like Assad and Brown and Horton in the near future who would be filling those roles if not for the injury struggles in the rotation. Those guys not being full starters just adds to the weight that needs to be carried by the pen that just lost a couple key options. 3. To use the 45 game sample you cited (basically September 2023 + this year)...the overall numbers are bad, yes, but 23rd in total value in no way lends itself to 'historic horsefeathers' right? Like, there's being a bad hitter and then there's being a bad hitter and having a .100 BABIP. This is really bad sequencing luck, playing an unsustainable amount of close games, etc....it's fine to say we have a bad bullpen based on the larger data set available. To take 'we are blowing leads at a historic frequency in this selective sample' and conclude 'our bullpen is a historic disaster' is probably skipping a few steps. Not saying this is you, specifically, but seem to be getting a lot of that around here. This is already far too long, but will just add that this was somehow all David Ross' fault last year, but definitely not Counsell's fault this year. And that after all this we're 4-4 on what is tied for the longest road trip of the year against three teams with playoff aspirations. If you want to see real problems, wait until this home stretch coming up, where we have two teams that also in theory were going for the playoffs this year and are a combined 10-23 to start the year.

Fangraphs chart has to be wild. Three three run leads blown if I’m reading the line correctly.

Jordan wicks no pressure but going to need at least 8 innings out of you tomorrow.

If the solution you’re going to keep calling for is “spend 9 figures on a bullpen but also make all the other signings we made in the offseason” then I’m going to keep being annoyed that your suggestions are completely unrealistic and don’t add anything to the conversation.

I’ll take Neris and Imanaga instead

I did not think it was still legal for hottovy to make all of these mound visits

Yeah! Like Houston did with Hader!

Lolllll

Fun with how credit/blame gets assigned: cubs bullpen this series: 8.2 innings, 3 ERs

Watching that second out and weirdly realizing I’ll forever be haunted by that ultimately harmless foul ball hit by Jason Kipnis in the ninth inning

I’ve never been as sure of anything as I am that tomorrows game will be a complete blow out one way or another. said another way: please can I just go to sleep

Seriously his numbers are going to look so good tomorrow. OBP over .400, more walks than Ks, his xwOBA was .371 before tonight.

Nico remembered how to hit….uh oh.

Turns out exhausted bullpens are bad at pitching regardless of who is in charge of the dugout.

Can we update this at some point

Cubs are committed to making sure there are no more high leverage situations, one way or another

Fuckkkkkkk yeah

We’ve got a couple of those guys, luckily

Any idea who’s pitching the 7th?

That’s bad hitting.

Let’s go Cody.

Decent start. Would make one tweak. Your calc is the base metric, but the index gets a 2 point bump if you can answer ‘Yes’ to the question ‘do you have Devin Williams as a relief option’

To be clear, you are trying to compare two managers and as part of your argument you are just making up theoretical suboptimal decisions for the guy you are arguing against.