squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Just because his pinch hitters didn't succeed does not mean the original option would have. You're talking like 30% v 35%, actual differences are probably smaller than that. Busch and Tauchman are, in the sample size of 1 AB, marginally better than Wisdom and Bote, but Koenig is also better against lefties than righties. Wisdom hit a ball 104 MPH with a .350 xBA, Bote 96 MPH with a .290 xBA. Megill is significantly better against righties. I don't think managers really matter at all, but whatever value they do bring is in the macro. Saying otherwise is just doing the same stuff we did with Ross last year.
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I don't think Counsell is bad. But I think it's a fine take in that managers aren't the answer to any substantial question, and counting on the person in that role to have some outsized tangible impact is probably dumb. But then again the difference in salary is a rounding error, so whatever.
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horsefeathers terrible 2-0 call, cool cool
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5 wins from one player >> 5 wins from 2 players. If anything, the current iteration of this roster (2.5 win players for daysss) highlights the importance of this. And I think it's pretty fair to question whether a team making a playoff push would have two guys they realistically believed were 2 months of baseball away from being 3 and 2 win major league players but were choosing not to use them in said playoff push. Even the Orioles, who everyone will tell you has juggernauts all over the field blocking elite prospects, have given substantial PAs to Mountcastle (374, 0.9fWAR), Ramon Urias (166 PAs, 0.4 fWAR), Mullins (300 PAs, 0.3 fWAR), and Austin Hays (169 PAs, 0.1 fWAR).
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We're literally a year removed from calling up a bad defensive third baseman from AAA with a 180 wRC in 134 PAs and now we're going to trade our best pitcher, with years of control, to replace him with another no-glove third baseman and a corner outfielder/DH guy with a Baseball Savant page full of blue bars despite the sparkling wRC. That's not to say that those guys will or would suck, but trading the guy who almost certainly does not suck in the least because of 'downside' or just so we can say that We Were Sellers, is a very weird Shiny New Toy'Grass is Always Greener situation.
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Fall of the house of Busch-er
squally1313 replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
Tampa and St Louis huh. Well, color me shocked. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-19-24
squally1313 replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I disagree with the 'mismanagement' part. Players can just be bad at things. But the Ballesteros debate is interesting because I think a position like catcher needs to be learned and progressed at each level of the minors, but his bat is just carrying him on this express train up to AAA at age 20. 87 games at single A (.394 OBP when promoted), 56 games at high A to end 2023 (128 wRC), 56 games at AA (151 wRC), and now 20 games of 114 wRC in Iowa. For his age and number of games caught, you'd probably want him in high A behind the plate, but what good does that do for his offensive skill set at this point? -
Weird what happens when you expand the sample size beyond “one”
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Strike 2 was ball 3, but yeah, overall, this is horsefeathers infuriating
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I had to say something
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A home run that gets out in one other ballpark in baseball and a walk after 4.1 scoreless.
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I knew he was having a rough year but did not expect to see Corbin Carroll batting 7th and rocking a .633 OPS.
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Very weird how Morel gets a lot of 'well look at the advanced stats, he's just been getting really unlucky, there's a bounceback coming' support for his 51 point difference in wOBA and xwOBA but you don't seem to hear the same thing for Dansby and his 45 point difference. (Good to be back)
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Copy/pasting over here Some assorted thoughts before I realize Brock mul has beaten me to setting up this game thread: Cubs were hot, hopefully Cubs ride Shota's shut down ASG inning and stay hot This series doesn't count double but they are yet another team going for a wild card spot, so knocking them down a peg would help out more so than a normal win Hendricks going Saturday is a choice, but I guess with a 4.26/3.52/4.13 line since being added back to the rotation (in 5 starts), he's earned a normal role. Tauchman off the IL, Canario back to AAA Remember when PCA hit 2 dongs in St Louis? That was fun Got like 10 days here to keep themselves in the race before the people who have been calling for a sell off since May start yelling even louder. Good matchups today and Sunday, let's start with today. Mad Men gif? Mad Men gif. Me wanting to be buyers because why not, it's more fun:
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lol of course
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No but seriously, can we get a game thread? Tauchman up, Canario down doesn't really prompt it's own thread but after the mods continued their 'down with Mega Threads' war on the trade rumors thread there's kinda nowhere to go.
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Personally I'm just pumped that everyone who was worried about unsigned players not getting a full spring training gets to start beating that drum two weeks earlier for this offseason.
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Weekend Cubs/Sox series for the first time in a while, no?
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He's an improved hitter over last year by a vast majority of the advanced metrics and every other team in baseball is more than capable of seeing that. Teams don't trade for players because they are riding hot BABIP streaks.
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I’m not going to get into some no win argument about the merits of expected stats, but if we’re using those as gospel then we should also be trying to dump Cody bellinger (who i was told repeatedly to ignore xwOBA) immediately. Can’t have it both ways.
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I don't think Chris Morel is a bad hitter. I don't think he's capable of playing third base, I don't think his overall skill set is enough to warrant any discussion where he takes second base from Nico, and I don't think his bat is elite enough, even if the luck turns, to hand him the DH job, especially when you've got Suzuki already here and producing the numbers Morel is thus far only expected to have. I think there is a chance that other teams might think he's playable at second base (or would be willing to try him in a corner outfield role), that there's a chance they think his bat is better than their options at DH, or that he's still just more reps away from improving as a fielder, and they're a couple years away and he's got tons of team control. As an example, the Red Sox have a team .701 OPS from the DH spot, a .559 OPS from 2B (-1.6 fWAR combined), and a 52% chance to make the playoffs. If other teams value him higher than we do, we should consider trading him, even if he's still a pretty safe bet to be among the 13 best offensive players in the org on opening day next year.
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Your second sentence and fourth sentence are kinda in conflict though, right? If he's replacement level, then we aren't getting anything for him. If he's worth giving up something good for, he's going to be hard to replace. There are 53 starters over 90 innings this year with an ERA below that 3.92 number. Taillon is 19th. As boring as he may be as a pitcher, they don't fall off trees.
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I go back and forth in terms of what I actually believe and eventually just appeal to authority. How many thousands of hours were spent by smart people getting paid to do this to create the best possible all encompassing stat. Also worth pointing out (maybe) that the Cubs are 17th in defensive value added since last year and 11th in offensive value added (a little driven by good baserunning). Nico and Dansby are elite. The rest are a smattering from above average (Happ) to bad (Morel).
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Are you saying that a run created is more valuable than a run prevented?
