squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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You don't have to remove players from "The Core" to add players to it. Keep the good players, get more good players at the spots you don't have good players. Baby, bath water, etc.
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For whatever can help us in the next two years. I see an argument that Hoerner is maybe redundant with Dansby, but paying him $12m for his age 28 and 29 years when he's 8th in 2B fWAR this year and 6th since last year doesn't seem high on the list of problems to address.
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Why not trade Shaw then
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Yeah totally fair, but I wouldn't call starting pitching depth an area of strength. I think the Rays made that move because 1. Paredes was going to hit arbitration and had the flashy stats/all star appearances and the Rays are more budget conscious than anyone outside of Oakland, and 2. they've got 2 top 5 prospects in baseball less than a year away on the left side of the infield. Shaw and Triantos are not Caminero and Carson Williams, and I would really hope we aren't the type of team who looks at a 2-2.5 fWAR pitcher making $18m and consider that a fiscal crisis. If it's May 2025 and Shaw or Triantos are destroying AAA, then I'll consider it a position of strength. Hoerner will still have plenty of value there.
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But they probably aren't getting those types of players in Hoerner or Taillon trades because why would a contending team trade away that type of player? So then you're wanting two separate trades, creating one hole to fill another, and ultimately for me it just seems like unnecessary deck shuffling, not to mention the fact that most of the 'Trade them all' crowd also thinks that Jed is a terrible GM who sucks at his job, so why they'd want him rearranging everything doesn't quite make sense to me.
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I'm saying the second one
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I think he's trying to get away from this binary of 'We are leveraging future assets in a desperate playoff push that will be decided in the next 6-8 weeks' and 'Get rid of everything that isn't nailed down immediately for Prospect and Draft Position purposes'. You can just....be comfortable with the state of the organization going forward and find value on both sides of the aisle. Seems like Jed is approaching it the same way. Obviously Tom said it in his Tom way and kept his Disney streak alive, but the general sentiment is fine.
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White Sox Season in Jeopardy
squally1313 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in General Baseball Talk
If you remove the 2 14 game losing streaks, they still have the worst winning percentage in baseball. -
Bradish was a pipe dream with his production, but feel like most of these contending teams have a guy on the shelf rehabbing for next year that has evidence of major league production. Giolito in Boston, Kyle Wright in KC, Houston has Garcia/Javier/McCullers/Urquidy, Strider is probably a pipe dream, Senga could be fun, Gasser and Woodruff in Milwaukee, Buehler/Gonsolin/May in LA, Musgrove in SD. Probably missing a lot of nuance there, but a different set of options to target.
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Trying to get creative on a possible Taillon trade that doesn't set us back going into next year. It doesn't make sense to me that we'd be able to get back the type of pitching that would be ready to replace his production going into next year because the implication that they aren't ready now but will somehow be ready after like 8 more minor league starts the rest of this year falls a little flat. But wondering if there are some more elite arms that are injured/out for the year that could be available from teams wanting to push all their chips in this year. I started with the Orioles and looked at someone like Kyle Bradish, who had TJ last month, but he won't be ready until the second half next year. Is there anything to this idea or should we just ignore me?
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Can we make sure Shaw and Triantos check off the 'hit in AAA' box before we trade our cheap, signed for two more years, pretty much a 3 win floor second baseman? The last infielder who mashed in AA and went straight to the majors just got traded away for never putting it together, the other guy on our roster who never mastered AAA is running a 57 wRC currently. There's very little chance of Shaw or Triantos giving you more value in 2025 than Hoerner, and you aren't trading Hoerner for the type of talent that's going to be ready to produce on opening day next year.
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No that was entirely in jest. Aware I've generally been more down on Morel than most, but think the cost of getting a player with Paredes' surface level appeal means that both teams priced in the home run reduction that you'd expect from those stats. Ultimately for me, even if you over-regress down to like, a .700 OPS, that's still a clear upgrade that you happily toss in two non-top 20 prospects to lock in.
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This might be loser talk, but I don't get all this fear of Morel figuring things out because in my opinion he absolutely was never going to figure things out as a Cub. I guess technically the development side of the house also falls under Jed's purview, but Morel turning into a .350 wOBA guy next year (still with bad defense) shouldn't be looked at as some failing of Jed on the trading side. Guy had almost 1300 PAs and put up 2.9 fWAR. Go get a real asset for him and if someone else fixes him, good for them.
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Hahaha as the resident pessimistic stat guy, I nominate you to keep a running tally of warning track outs.
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Could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that's not what Philippians 4:13 says.
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It probably does. But makes it a lot easier for Shaw and/or Caissie to be that bat too. Shaw blowing awaw AAA in the next 12 months makes Hoerner trade bait, Caissie lets you pick between salary dumping Bellinger or trading PCA for pitching or prospect depth. Or, as Tom has mentioned once or twice, trade PCA for Robert and go to war.
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Not saying you're ignoring the nuance, but obviously more than wOBA v xwOBA. Rays have 2 top ten prospects on the left side of the infield, one killing AA and the other putting up a 110 wRC at AAA. Lowe is getting expensive-for-the Rays at second. Morel is a bat they obviously think they can unlock who is dirt cheap for approximately forever. Cubs could have believed a lot in Morel's bat, but you aren't picking his offense over Suzuki's in the near future, and they both pretty clearly have the same one spot in the lineup. Now instead of trying to find that premium bat (which probably isn't Paredes) that can also somehow play third, you've got CF (Robert) and RF (Soto, numerous other options) to play with, with PCA and Bellinger there to fit around whatever you pick up. And that's before Caissie and Shaw come up to complicate things. Anyways, terrified, risk averse, just following the bosses orders Jed is suddenly the talk of the town. Need to reset some priors around here.
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Coming to a conclusion that a trade means nothing to you, and then logging onto the Cubs message board to tell other people who are discussing it to stop talking about it because you decided there's nothing to discuss, on a discussion board, is certainly a choice. It's one thing if you loved Rivera or Pinango. But if you simply don't care...great! Good for you, some people do.
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He's a 26 year old who put up a .539 OPS as a first baseman last year. They could have waited for the DFA.
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Cubs trade for PIT minor league Outfielder
squally1313 replied to Rex Buckingham's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm guessing there's some dumb rule in place that would make it suboptimal, service time wise, to call up Alcantara. But if not....just pull the trigger there. Got to make a decision on him eventually, and I don't know how you're going to carve out MLB PAs for him next year. Probably not super fair to him, but I don't think his value takes a hit if he struggles because he's still young and obviously skipping a stop. -
Rizzo is hurt and/or broken right? Can we just take him back in the deal, reduce the Yankees 2024 payroll concerns, give PTR a nostalgia driven cash infusion around wrigley, and open up CF for either PCA or a more creative idea this offseason?
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Yeah that rousing .740 OPS from Bellinger (which he's lucky to have based on the expected stats) is clearly what's going on here.
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This is way better given the context. And the fact that it was just long ago enough that it probably caught him by surprise.
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Yeah it's really not the 50/50 calls or the fluke hits or whatever that has done this team in. That's why the season is as long as it is, so that in theory those things even out and regress to a normal level. We're where we are because we have 2 excellent starting pitchers, a handful of good players, and a bunch of really bad performances on both sides of the ball.
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Both of those last two points are still related to the expanded playoffs though, in my opinion. 2 weeks ago a Cubs-like team on the fringe probably wasn't willing to make anyone of value (the 'right player') because there was still time to go on a run. When that run doesn't materialize before the end of the July, that team becomes more willing to make those players available. As for back in the day, 60 years there were 10 teams in each league and you needed to win the league to go to the playoffs (which was obviously just the World Series). On June 15th, 1965, 7 of the 20 teams were double digits back of the league leaders.
