squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Well when you put that way.... I get it, and certainly don't want to die on a crippled 33 year old Mike Trout shaped hill. Just found myself wondering how much of that contract we could get out of, and then about the concept of trying to find opportunities that give you a wide range of potential outcomes in terms of value added. Like, to get Soto you're going to be paying a number that implies peak Soto production. But if you could make a financial commitment that's based on 'Always Injured and Maybe Washed Up Mike Trout' and then he suddenly stops being injured all the time while continuing to xwOBA above .390....that raises the ceiling quite a bit.
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I've got 112 from 1999 to 2009, guessing we're off on a year or so on one or both ends. He was also the 8th best baserunner during that time (246 SBs to use a basic stat). Alcantara has 22 SBs in 171 games since the beginning of last year, at a lower success rate than Cameron, so don't think we're getting anywhere close there. Cameron's K and BB rates during that peak are both better than what Alcantara is doing in AA right now, his ISO was higher than anything Alcantara has put up above the Complex League (excepting 20 PAs in AA last year). I think it's pretty unlikely Alcantara puts up numbers at the plate similar to Cameron. I think it's very, very unlikely his overall offensive profile ever gets to a Cameron level. I think it's a magnitude more unlikely that he eclipses Cameron in total value. Aware you said offensive value, and yes, I know, 0/35. But they still count. And that's not to cast him off. If he turns into Brandon Marsh, to pick a name on the CF leaderboard, that's a cost controlled salary for essentially the same production since the beginning of last year we've paid Cody Bellinger $45m for (while on the hook for another $50+m).
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Eh, 6 years vs 10 years, wouldn't expect him to immediately become a DH/huge drag defensively. Injuries are definitely a problem, but he could probably be had for less than free and he hasn't put up an xwOBA below .389 in his life.
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I have a couple friends that are Sox fans and apparently very masochistic and their position on Roberts is that he's been just 100% checked out for months now and it's not that he's actually getting worse. Don't know how I feel about trying to quantify effort/motivation, but there's maybe an angle there. Totally out of left field here (pun maybe intended) but....do you think Trout would ever waive his NTC?
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Look I know it's cool to be down on everything, but this is just wrong. Busch is 5th in wOBA among first basemen, 6th in wRC, 5th in baserunning value, and 5th in defense. What he's doing is plenty impressive, and the improvements he's making month to month even more so. Paredes is 9th in wOBA, 7th in wRC among third basemen and to get ahead of the next rebuttal, he's 7th in both in road games this year. If you want to nitpick on 'special', sure, whatever. If you truly believe that they 'won't provide much with the bat'.....you should take a closer look at the rest of the league.
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Paredes
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Yeah the actual ranking itself is probably kinda worthless. Definitely see your point, though you could argue that there's a bevy of guys who haven't been good enough to play consistently enough to be qualified, so you could bump him down the rankings and also keep his percentile probably pretty consistent? I think my larger point was just how depressed the offensive environment is across that league. Still would want more, but holding out hope for some slugging improvement in AAA, even if it comes with decreased avg/obp.
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Heartbreaking: The Most Pessimistic Person You Know Just Made A Great Point
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Sore neck for whatever reason. Expected back tomorrow, though it's fair to say we've heard that one before.
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Seiya is hurt
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Not ironically hoping that this somehow gets to PCA?
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Alcantara turning into Mike Cameron is like a 99.5th percentile outcome.
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Duran is nasty, I don't have any idea how he's only striking out 8 per 9. Jax has been better, assume we'll see him in the 9th. Potential saving grace is that his last two outings were against the Sox and so it's possible he forgot how to pitch to major league hitters.
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This ump is flipping a coin apparently
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Worth pointing out the Alcantara's slugging is 17th in the Southern League (out of 49 qualified), which obviously isn't elite (you'd want him putting up a higher number than Triantos, as an example), but more so just shows the overall environment. Feel like I've seen discussions of his exit velocities being pretty elite, which is nice, but we're also looking at a below average BB/K ratio.
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His numbers don't look terrible once you normalize down his BABIP and HR/FB rate in AAA and his 20 innings in the majors. Lot of Ks, decent control. I think both teams are just going to try and launch as many fly balls as possible and we'll see who gets more into the LF basket.
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Well, sure, but that's baseball. Ryan Helsley is probably a top 10 reliever in baseball and we got 3 off of him on Thursday with a home run that only leaves 2 other parks and three sub-100 EV hits. If we're over here pissed we didn't get a sweep and they're over there pissed they didn't get a split....maybe we should all find other hobbies.
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'Winning games actually makes me angrier' is certainly a logical conclusion to the general mood of this board.
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If PCA can OBP 350, he would probably be the MVP frontrunner.
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Yeah I’m sure Romero is death on lefties but that seemed like a suboptimal spot to make that move.
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Good point, nevermind
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Fun times
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The totally replaceable taillon down to a 3.25 ERA on the year
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That seems better
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Man, take care of business tomorrow and we get a chance to go for the sweep on Sunday Night Baseball with Steele on the mound against Mikolas and all his weirdness/bad at pitching-ness? nowyouvegotastewgoing.gif
