squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Jed: Cubs expected to be over the luxury tax THIS year
squally1313 replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Wrong it's actually because Jed Hoyer is stupid and doesn't have creativity. -
This literally describes 2015-2016 javy.
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Also. Just let the red hot hitter put a fly ball to the outfield.
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lol both sides of javy magic
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What do you think the average third baseman is putting up right now
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Eh. I think when people picture the starting pitching showdown, they're picturing the elite guys who definitely still exist. You put in rules where there's suddenly 150 pitchers in baseball that have to throw 100 pitches every time out, feel like you're going to have a lot Shawn Estes flashbacks. I also don't buy the injury rate argument. Unless you tell these guys that certain outings will be thrown out in their statistics, most every pitcher out there is still going to go balls to the wall no matter what. I just think it's too dramatic by a pretty substantial amount. You end up in a world where starting pitchers and relievers have to be brought up with almost totally separate development programs. Any injury more than a couple weeks probably requires multiple rehab starts. Etc. Just go with the double hook.
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I guess I don't really see why these are problems that need to be fixed? Like, there are already built in downsides to these things. You can only carry 13 pitchers, reliable relivers don't grow on trees, either way you're taxing the pen and, eventually, having to throw your worst relievers.
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Jed: Cubs expected to be over the luxury tax THIS year
squally1313 replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Baby, bathwater, etc. -
Feel like the initial push to put minimums on how long pitchers had to pitch was to speed up the game and I think the pitch clock pretty much already solved that problem? If we're just looking for more offense I feel like there has to be a better way than mandating a pitcher but also having like seven exceptions that you'd need to track. Move the mound back, flatten it, juice the ball, ABS would help, etc.
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People smarter than me around here have actually run the scenarios on being barely over the LT this year and the actual consequences are pretty minimal. Not sure why Hoyer would bring it up and call attention to it on his own given that the team didn't actually play good, but this isn't some potential gigantic screw up that some people are making it out to be.
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Well on the frustration side of things, it's probably fair to say I'm hand waving a lot of potential issues in that plan. Hoerner is at 93 wRC, Swanson at 83. So league average is probably a stretch, but those are still both guys that are going to comfortably end up north of 3 fWAR. We used Happ as a baseline of 120 wRC (his numbers this year). Bellinger is at 111. Busch and Suzuki are both at 126, which is barely ahead, and that K rate from Busch remains a concern. Agreed you end up in a 10 guys for 9 spots situation bringing in an outside bat, but that's fine for me. It's basically 6 guys for 5 spots unless you want to fake it with Busch at second or third, but it's still fine. Trade for Tucker or Robert, sign Soto, there really shouldn't be an option that we can't work into the current roster.
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I was a little skeptical initially but I think that's probably right. Next year you could probably expect/rely on Busch and Suzuki putting up better offensive numbers. It wouldn't be significantly better, but it would be offset a little by generally expecting Belli and Paredes to put up similar production to Happ. Throw an elite bat on top of all of that (and league average offense from Nico and Dansby)... I don't know. It seems like plenty. But getting more than a little discouraged at the results.
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18.5% K rate in 54 PAs, which is 10 Ks. Career rate is 27% and he has 14 hits (8 extra base hits) in those situations. Was pretty good last year too (.897 OPS, 24% BB rate to 14% K rate). BABIP is basically what he runs normally, just seems to have been better in those scenarios. Seiya's is a little harder to parse. BB rate is 8.7% (8.5% across all PAs), K rate is 21.7% (26.8% across all PAs). BABIP is trash (.194 v .333 across all PAs) with no power (3 XBHs in 46 PAs). Obviously you're breaking this down to unusable sample sizes at some point, but his batted ball profile in high leverage situations seems fine too (43.8% hard hit v 37.5% across all PAs). Seems too optimistic to just chalk it up to bad luck but....that's probably driving a lot of it.
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Four straight days for clase 7 games clear of a playoff spot is certainly a choice.
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That was such a filthy pitch on 3-2 against Happ. Probably would have been called a strike 6 more inches in but still. keep thinking that we can death by a thousand cuts this bullpen but they just keep throwing out these create-a-shutdown relievers
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Me talking about the Guardians offense just being kwan and Ramirez
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The cubs scored, wanted to get that in there around the pitch count and one AB sample size complaints
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‘Had to’ is a weird phrase to use there
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Two sides to that right? In small sample sizes, lefties were over 100 points worse, wOBA wise, against Boyd last year, 45 points in his career.
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Have to appreciate the effort but moral victories obviously aren’t going to cut it anymore. Need Assad to get his A game back tomorrow.
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With the runner starting on second? Dansby is really good but I don’t know if he’s that good
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Please make them at least consider using a couple of their top 3 bullpen arms.
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Do you mean four steps forward one step back?
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Cubs are 19th in errors going into tonight
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And again.
