squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Yeah the 2022 Braves and their....7th in baseball wRC was the key to Dansby being a good hitter. That explains how terrible and unproductive he was last year.
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No one is denying that Dansby is having a very subpar year by his standards but when you include 'decidedly average player' in reference to a guy who was 8th in offensive fWAR the year before he hit free agency, 14th in fWAR over the 3 years prior to free agency, and 21st the year after he signed his contract, you're losing a little credibility in your analysis. Like, he has the 31st highest AAV contract in baseball and has been something like the 45th best player in baseball (hitters and pitchers) since he signed. This is not the disaster that everyone is making it out to be.
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It's been 3 months, and in June he bested his career OPS by 25 points. Maybe we can pump the brakes just a little bit on the Downfall of Dansby Swanson
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Dansby has a 120 wRC in June. It was bad before that, but weird time to pile on him.
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Ian Happ sucks so much
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103.6 mph off the bat from Dansby, 560 xBA hey, PCA, good to see you
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Turned the game on, nice walk from Happ, line drive single from morel, Dansby misses a hanger and then squares up probably the most perfect 6-4-3 DP I’ve ever seen.
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He was in New York, being generally bad for the Mets. But his walk rate is under 4, so maybe we can run some BABIP luck for a little while.
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4th in wOBA amongst 1Bs, 17th in xwOBA. So, not great. Willing to accept some nuance there given all the talk about Bellinger sustainably beating it last year and then the underperformers this year doing so for a reason. Also, league average-ish offensive production with solid defensive metrics at the league minimum isn't the biggest problem in the world.
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To be fair, we've gotten a 1.53 ERA out of Tyson Miller since he came over. It's possible, and even happens to us sometimes.
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under 3.5 first 5 innings was a sweat, but we got there
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Haha well this particular instance isn't the best example of that (and probably almost a counter argument in the lesser value of stolen bases in a TTO world). No point in risking getting thrown out on the bases if the next dude is going to park one. Having said that, stolen bases are fun, we should embrace fun.
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Also I just saw the Happ play where he got thrown out and it wasn't quite as egregious as I had imagined. Sky high pop up to the dead zone in shallow left center played, with two outs, played super casually by center, with PCA coming up to hit. Obviously it didn't work and Willie Harris deserves no benefit of the doubt, but I could see the reasoning.
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lol PCA: gets hit by pitch, steals second, steals third, doing everything he can to be valuable Hoerner: just relax dude, I got this
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Of the non-middle infield/catching positions, it does kinda seem like the only definitives these days are PCA in center and Busch at first.
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Now there's a two word phrase that really never needs to be uttered in a sports context.
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Javier Assad to IL, Almonte to 60-Day
squally1313 replied to Jason Ross's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Cubs missing all of 13 days more than the Brewers doesn't exactly make me feel comforted -
They signed a reliever with a 14 K/9 rate in AAA and a 2.25 ERA in 8 innings in the majors for a league minimum contract to replace some dude who sucks in the current bullpen. We can be neutral, or even ok, with that decision.
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You're right, I should join every other person and just find ways to spin every single thing that happens as something negative. That would be way less exhausting.
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Everyone until now: We have to try something different! Everyone when we make a no-risk move to try something different: Lol no, not like this
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Cubs pitchers have 9 strikeouts through 5 innings and are rocking a cool 60% HR/FB
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PCA rbi single, walk, scores from first on a single.
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Just because the team sucks with PCA in the lineup doesn't mean the team sucks because PCA is in the lineup. If we're all in agreement that he's an obvious net negative offensively right now, that means he must be contributing otherwise to have the end results he has. Do we want to go and figure out the impact he has on the starters' sparking ERAs? And ultimately I'm fine with PCA going to AAA to figure some stuff out because I think it's good for his long term development. But just stabbing at names because of a hot couple weeks in AAA or because they hit a ball far in a game you watched isn't the way to do it. Just stick Bellinger back in center and figure out some weird Morel/Suzuki/Wisdom/Tauchman 3B/RF/DH platoon. All of those guys are probably going to give you 90-100 wRC offensive production at a minimum, which, as shown above, is far from a guarantee from someone like Canario, without sacrificing a premium defensive position.
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I find this 'well it can't get any worse!' argument pretty tough to accept. PCA isn't singlehandedly losing all these baseball games. If one of the other 8 guys in the lineup comes up and comes through with a big hit but Canario can't get to a ball in the gap that costs them 2 runs....that's worse! There are thousands of permutations here. If you want to argue that the overall difference in production is negligible and PCA needs the AAA experience offensively, sure. If you want to buy into the concept of a spark, I guess, whatever. But you can't realistically look at Canario's profile and be like 'this guy can't be worse than the guy who has given you 0.6 fWAR in 45 games'. He absolutely could be.
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I think PCA needs to go figure out how to dominate AAA before his offensive confidence is forever ruined up here. Having said that, it could absolutely be worse than a 0.6 fWAR in 46 games and Bellinger is currently 52nd of 53 in defensive value for anyone with 50 or more PAs in CF this year (33rd of 80 last year), so 'fine' is probably overstating it.
