I'm in the same boat. I think they'll finish in the 6-10 range or so. They're 14-2 in games decided by 1 goal this year. That's not going to happen next year. Between losses and ties, you can probably take off 10-15 points. They got 11 penalties this year, which is only the eighth time since 2002-03 that a team has taken more double digit PKs in a season. In the year before and year after each of those seasons, those teams averaged 5.3 penalties per season. So you can take off a couple points for that also (there will be some overlap with the above stat). This year was the weakest the EPL has been at the top. City will be better next year with Pep coming in. Chelsea will be better with Conte. Liverpool will probably be better in their second year under Klopp. And you've still got Spurs, Arsenal and ManU. I know they'll have more money coming in between the UCL and the EPL TV money but if the big clubs want somebody like Mahrez or Kante, they'll be gone. So how many of their players they keep will be a major factor as well. I think they'll finish in the 55-60 point range which will put them between 6th and 9th in the table.