I think betting on +/- 95 on the ERA+ scale is perfect. Marquis was signed to be a 5th starter. If he puts up an ERA+ in the mid-90s or better, he'll be doing that job effectively. FWIW, I'll take the over. This is a bit flawed. He was signed to a contract that pays him well over the average. He's not going to be the 5th starter. So I don't see the point in giving him the benefit of a sub average number to still be "doing his job". Contract has nothing to do with it. You don't line up your starting rotation from 1-5 based on salary. Marquis was most certainly signed to anchor the back of the rotation, behind Z, Lilly, Hill, and (ideally) Prior. Contract has everything to do with it. Do you think most of us would be nearly as pissed off about having Marquis here if we took a flier on him with a 1-3 million dollar contract? I don't. It was a terrible signing. Now some people want to say he'll be decent, some want to say he'll suck, and the people saying he'll be decent want to lower the standards of "suck?" Come on. Again, the contract has everything to do with it. Do you see people here starting threads about how bad Miller is and what a monumentally bad move it was to bring him in? I love it when people try to suggest that the contracts are irrelevant and that we shouldn't be worried about what the Cubs are spending on whom, as if they had unlimited resources and could just throw any amount of money at anyone. The Marquis signing is just another example of Hendry wasting resources on mediocre to bad talent.