David

I agree completely. So, he'll have more pressure on him for his first AB, but after that it's just like any of the other 40 at bats. Plus, won't he see better pitches with T-Riot and the heart of the order protecting him, versus Blanco? So it didn't matter when Neifi and Corey were hitting 1-2 in front of Lee as opposed to 7-8? It's generally accepted, I think, that lineup configuration does not matter significantly in wins and losses. If you're deciding whether to hit Ruth ahead of Gehrig or vice versa, I totally agree. If you're deciding whether Neifi hits second (with his .300 OBP) or Murton and his .360 OBP, I think over the course of a season, it can cost you enough runs to make difference. But that would be nearly impossible to prove. There have been studies along these lines - I think Tangotiger proved that creating optimal batting orders can be expected to add 1-2 wins by the end of a season. Batting order is one of the most straightforward, concrete decisions a manager can make, so I disagree with the argument that it's trivial and doesn't rate discussion. Optimal batting orders may add 1-2 wins a season, but I have my doubts as to what an optimal batting order actually is. I don't think it's what conventional baseball wisdom would define as an optimal lineup.

What's the gay joke?

That JD Drew. I'd really hate to have him on the Cubs. He doesn't hustle.

So, Felix Hernandez is going into the 8th with a no hitter going.

I wish the Cubs had Felix Hernandez.

Is there a problem with playing the hot hand? Yes, yes there is. So when Murton was slumping horribly last season you'd still play him? This isn't the prospect development league. It's MLB. Wins and losses matter. Murton isn't some wildcard unknown, he put up an 800+ OPS last year in pretty much a full season. Floyd needs to be pretty much at his best to be worthy of more than just giving him a day off. "Playing the hot hand" is way too arbitrary and puts too much pressure on either player to produce or get benched. Either platoon them, or let one get the lions share of the starts. Considering there's probably not going to be a significant difference between Floyd and Murton v. RHP(at least one large enough to justify stunting further development of Murton, the difference between them defensively, etc.), then Murton should be starting the majority of the time. So far it looks like Lou has done the right thing production-wise. To say otherwise is 20-20 hindsight. Floyd has been great. Murton has been lackluster and impatient at the plate. His infield dribblers remind me of the first half of 2006. Infield hits galore. It wasn't until the second half that he started putting it in the air and driving it. I'm sure Murton will get his playing time through merit. He's a good player (not great). Floyd is outproducing him at 80% health right now. Over the long hall Murton will take ABs away from Floyd, but he'll have to earn it. He's not such a great prospect that a team will throw away productivity temporarily to develop him. That's the nature of the game. I don't know if you've been watching the games or following via gameday/radio, but Floyd is making very solid contact. Loud outs. Booming XBH. Murton is lost. You don't have to follow splits to get the most productivity out of a platoon. Part of it's it who's hot now. If you want to play some guy b/c of last year's stats, that's not going to work. Is Soriano raking right now? Izturis? DeRosa? Play the hot hand. It has been SIX GAMES. SIX. 6! Do you not understand how utterly insignificant a sample that is? This is the problem with playing the hot hand. Players look good and bad sometimes, and it varies sometimes at bat to at bat, game to game, series to series. To "play the hot hand" is just playing roulette with the lineup, short hot streaks are so far from being predictive it's ridiculous. At the same time, you want to reward good performance, but there needs to be a structure in place for that. Murton was better at everything last year. He's younger, healthier, a better defender, and is probably better at cards. He should be getting the majority of the starts. Now, this isn't necessarily a criticism of what's happened to this point, because it has only been SIX GAMES, but over the haul Murton needs to be getting the lion's share of the playing time unless something goes very wrong for him and very right for Floyd, for an extended period of time. Was Floyd not significantly injured last season? It's pretty dubious to rate Floyd vs. Murton based on last year's numbers. So far Floyd has outproduced Murton. The numbers don't lie (not to mention the naked eye for anyone that's watched the games). Murton has sucked so far. Absolutely sucked. Will that continue throughout the season? Nope. But playing Floyd over Murton has helped us win games so far. You're arguing long term and I'm arguing short term. Have you seen Murton lately? Crap. Until he gets it figured out, Floyd's the man. Sample size, shmample size. We're talking short term. Sample size is irrelevant. Geebus, Neifi was good at times. Are you suggesting we should have played some SS stud in a slump b/c his overall numbers warranted the start? This is baseball. Everyone slumps. A smart manager can take advantage of the depth on his roster. Otherwise he'd be playing his starters every day no matter what b/c their career numbers suggested it. You can't be serious. I mean, really, are you? I'm glad you used such an extreme example, too, because it illustrates the point incredibly well and I don't have to take the blame for it (since the Floyd/Murton situation isn't nearly as clear, although I'm in agreement with those who say Murton should get the majority of PA's). The best decision isn't the one that turns out better in hindsight. It's the one that is made based upon the most amount of good information possible. Whether it works out is irrelevant. Let's say ARod is this "SS stud in a slump" that you refer to. It would never, and I mean NEVER, be a good decision to start Neifi over him (at least, if you're only taking into account potential performance and not fatigue or injury). I don't care if ARod is 0 for his last 25. We have thousands of plate appearances to tell us that ARod is an elite hitter. We also have thousands of PA's to tell us that Neifi is one of the worst hitters in MLB history. I don't care what either has done for the past few games. Even if Neifi goes 3 for 4 in this hypothetical game while ARod would've gone 0 for 4 in that game, it still wouldn't have been the right decision. It would've just been a bad decision that luckily worked out well. Do you play poker? If you had pocket 4's and you know an all in player before you has pocket aces, would you call hoping to hit a set because you've had a good run with pocket 4's the last few times you got them? (Or, to make the situation more analogous, would you trade your pocket aces for pocket 4s because you've hit a few sets recently with pocket 4's but have had your aces cracked the last couple times?) Hell no. You fold (or, for the other scenario, you sure as hell don't trade). You even fold pocket kings there. And if you call with either hand and get lucky and crack the other guy's aces, it still was a terribly bad play and the wrong decision. Sorry about the poker analogy, but I just felt like it worked pretty well here. There's, admittedly, a difference in that there's a human element in baseball, and it might help 'stud SS in slump' out, mentally, to sit out a day if he's had a bad run. That's a far cry from "sit him because he's cold and player 'y' is hot," though, and it's more of a long term type of decision to give him a day off here or there to clear his head than a short term one. If I'm in a one game playoff, and ARod is 2 for his last 15 and Neifi is 9 for his last 18, I'm starting ARod 100 times out of 100. Ok, done rambling.

Some serious ownage of the garbage "clutch" myth in this thread. I love it.

This thread is obviously a joke.

What's worse to you...putting this sarcastic remark in or having someone actually rip on Kerry Wood for his well deserved lambasting for his constant health problems? Just curious Well deserved? Some people just get hurt. Yea. He can't help what has happened. How does he deserve a "lambasting?"

I'd rather see Theriot at 2B and DeRosa in RF than Floyd or Theriot in RF. It works better offensively and defensively.

That worked out ok. I wouldn't mind seeing some hit and run when ARam is up to avoid the DP's considering he makes so much contact (doesn't K a lot) and isn't exactly fast himself.

??? It wasn't even close. Nice Avatar and Signature. Where did you find them? Bulls forum at RealGM.com. Most of the forum is using them until the playoffs end.

??? It wasn't even close.

...or a strikeout

I think Rich Hill will have a good game too. But our offense is the thing that needs to be picked up. Not the pitching. Both Lilly and Marquis only gave up 1 earned run in 6-7 innings each. . I think playing in a controlled climate will help somewhat. Did they wind up getting that roof fixed in time?

its almost like you want the cubs to lose just so you can say you were right about thinking they would suck. No I just am still bitter about the last 2 seasons, really hurt by watchin the White Sox and Cardinals win world series, and I basically refused to buy into Spring Training optimism like almost everyone else on the board did. I knew it would take more then one season to turn that sorry 2006 team around, but Hendry decided to throw tons of money at mediocre players, leaving the team in a horrible position financially for the next 4-5 years. Don't get me wrong, I want the Cubs to win every game...but they won't. They'll only win around 78 of them. yep we will only win 12 more games than last year with this team. Why is that so hard to believe? Our team OBP was completely not addressed in the offseason. I don't care what you saw in the spring, players don't just randomly get more patient, especially veteran hitters like most of this team is. Our starting pitching is a bunch of spare pieces who can only succeed if they all have career years. Bullpens, our only strength, are a crapshoot at best, which is way only the best relievers don't have up and down careers. Taking all of that into account... You think replacing the crap we had at 1B last year with a full season of Derrek Lee, Juan Pierre with Alfonso Soriano, along with significant improvements in the rotation (as bad as you think it may be this year, last year it was worse), only equals 12 more wins?

its almost like you want the cubs to lose just so you can say you were right about thinking they would suck. No I just am still bitter about the last 2 seasons, really hurt by watchin the White Sox and Cardinals win world series, and I basically refused to buy into Spring Training optimism like almost everyone else on the board did. I knew it would take more then one season to turn that sorry 2006 team around, but Hendry decided to throw tons of money at mediocre players, leaving the team in a horrible position financially for the next 4-5 years. Don't get me wrong, I want the Cubs to win every game...but they won't. They'll only win around 78 of them. I'd LOVE to bet you on that...but I wouldn't wanna make you root against them.

Unfortuntly there is more crappy teams then dominate teams... OMG shoot me. Is it wrong that this pisses me off worse than the final out of this game being recorded? You missed one. Well, if we're gonna be picky, I missed a few. But the first one is my big pet peeve.

Unfortuntly there is more crappy teams then dominate teams... OMG shoot me. Is it wrong that this pisses me off worse than the final out of this game being recorded?

Yes, we need FIRE! and INTENSITY! Fixed. You forgot the inexplicable exclamation point in the middle of the sentence.

not hardly. the season is young and cedeno needs some plate appearances with something on the line. just because cedeno didn't get a hit doesn't mean it was a bad move. I wish more people would understand this concept. All moves that end in a good result aren't good moves, nor are moves that turn out bad automatically bad moves.

Ok... NOW it's over. THESE GUYS SUCK!!!!! ;)

Looks like we have runners at 2nd and 3rd and we're down one run. I thought the game was over?

It's not that we lose, but how we lose. That never changes. Oh and it's never too early to freak... This is ridiculous. All teams lose like this. Even great teams lose ~60 games. And among those 60 there are plenty of games that were blown by boneheaded plays and bad luck. Are you kidding?

How can you guys stand to be this on edge during game 3 of a 162 game season? Especially with a game like baseball where failure is inevitable, frequent, and expected (unless you have Barry Bonds with a .500 OBP).. Don't you wear yourselves out? I usually don't start to freak out about stuff until at least July, unless things get really, really bad early.