David

That's the point. And there have been quite a few more examples of dumb play that cost the Cubs this year. Luck probably plays a role, but so does poor decision making and poor execution. I conceded this point before I even argued anything else. What I'm arguing against is your contention that that run cost us the game, when there is absolutely no way you can say that the run would have scored had things gone differently. D-Lee as a runner on base when Aramis hit that HR is your own hypothetical. You're accusing me of (and ridiculing me for) coming up with hypotheticals when the situation you're trying to present is just as much of a hypothetical. Him getting thrown out and then the following pitch being thrown and hit out of the park is what actually happened. Him being on base for that pitch, that's entirely hypothetical.

Yes, and we all know that pitching from the stretch is so much more effective than pitching from the windup. While, I bet you he would have just blown it past Aramis had he been in the stretch. Or better yet, if Lee is safe a butterfly would have landed on a dandelion and distracted Jenkins just enough that Aramis would have been able to hit an inside the park HR on liner. You're kidding me, right? It's not about it being more effective (that probably depends on the pitcher, anyway). It's about it being a COMPLETELY different pitch. Hitting a home run is a fairly unlikely outcome for a hitter which requires a confluence of several variables going the right way, any ONE of which could completely change the outcome if it were removed or changed. Is this so hard to comprehend?

CubinNY brought that example in. Still, I wouldn't argue with him about it being a bad play. Yes he was safe, but it's not really about the outcome anyway. It was a bad decision to attempt the steal. Even if he's safe, it was a bad decision. Process over outcome.

On top of that, wasn't he also pitching from the stretch while Lee was on, and the windup when Aramis jacked it?

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. So you are trying to argue that the catcher would've called the exact same pitch, the pitcher would've made the exact same pitch in the exact same location, and Aramis would've made the exact same swing had the attempted steal never happened? The play may have been dumb, but you can't just say that it cost us a run because Aramis hit a HR on the next pitch. It just doesn't work that way. You're the one making asinine statements. No. You are trying to argue that there would have been a different outcome in some hypothetical universe where Lee's stupid play went the other way. I'm going on what actually happened. The problem is, it very likely wouldn't have actually happened had Lee still been on base. How in the wide, wide world of sports can you possibly say that? You can't be serious.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. So you are trying to argue that the catcher would've called the exact same pitch, the pitcher would've made the exact same pitch in the exact same location, and Aramis would've made the exact same swing had the attempted steal never happened? The play may have been dumb, but you can't just say that it cost us a run because Aramis hit a HR on the next pitch. It just doesn't work that way. You're the one making asinine statements. No. You are trying to argue that there would have been a different outcome in some hypothetical universe where Lee's stupid play went the other way. I'm going on what actually happened. The problem is, it very likely wouldn't have actually happened had Lee still been on base. The play was stupid, there's no doubt about that. But you can't argue that the run cost us the game because you think that, in your own hypothetical universe, Aramis would've hit a 2 run HR in that spot. You're talking to me about hypotheticals while you're the one saying a hypothetical run in an alternate reality would've won the game. Really, what on earth are you talking about??

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. You're right, the outcome would've been exactly the same if Lee had been on third base. The same pitch would've been made with the same velocity and location even with a different number of outs, runners in scoring position, and a different delivery. Thank you. Didn't even see this when I made my reply.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said? Asinine:" You cannot really Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all." Aramis did hit a HR and Lee did get called out. This isn't chaos theory nor is it the butterfly effect. All we have to go on is exactly what happened. And what happend was a dumb play followed by a HR that should have been the difference in the ball game. So you are trying to argue that the catcher would've called the exact same pitch, the pitcher would've made the exact same pitch in the exact same location, and Aramis would've made the exact same swing had the attempted steal never happened? The play may have been dumb, but you can't just say that it cost us a run because Aramis hit a HR on the next pitch. It just doesn't work that way. You're the one making asinine statements.

That's asinine. Aramis hit a freaking HR. That HR was the difference in the ball game if Lee doesn't try to steal. For the life of me, I cannot understand Cub fans. ITS NOT BAD LUCK THAT IS KEEPING THE CUBS FROM WINNING Tell me, what exactly is asinine about what I said?

I agree that Lee was safe, but you can't really assume that Aramis would've hit that HR if Lee had been called safe or hadn't tried to steal at all.

Exactly.

Although Philly just won three straight and they are a bad, bad team... But yes so far this is the most overrated baseball players since 2004. The 2004 team was not overrated. It was also the best Cubs team I've ever watched (only been a serious fan since about 1994 or so). The team was well on its way to winning 94 or 95 games, but completely and utterly ran out of gas at the end (not that I need to remind anybody). Outside of the final two weeks, that team did not underperform, at all, especially when you consider the injuries to Prior and Wood early on.

Is there any other kind? And also... Bitter much? I think he means having a boner FOR a man, not having a boner AS a man. Anyway, how's Alex Sanchez doing these days?

Wow. Michael Barrett is just a really good hitter. That was a shame.

I LOLed. Slightly.

Um.... Albert is right.

What's that stat for the record of teams that win game one in an NBA playoff series?

Are you seriously suggesting DLee as a leadoff hitter? You might want to lay off the meth. I like the lineup posted by the thread starter, except I would flip Theriot and Murton. The point is that, in actuality, the best lineups you can put together aren't (necessarily) really what conventional wisdom would suggest. It has been drilled into our heads for the longest time that lineups should be constructed a certain way, hence your response that Rob lay off the meth. That doesn't mean there aren't other, better ways to put together a lineup. There have been more than a few studies on lineup construction that have strongly suggested that there are better ways (such as something similar to Rob's) to fill out a lineup card. It'll be a long time before a manager actually has the balls to put it into practice, though. Personally, though, I don't think lineup construction matters all that much as long as you make sure that your very best hitters get the most at bats and your worst hitters get the least (which is, to a good extent, what Rob's lineup does). Even then, it probably doesn't make that much of a difference.

Hi, I'm Skip Schumaker!

Coming from the American to National league, I wouldn't be suprised if Lilly had a very good season. A valid point. I thought he might have a nice season because of this. But this is beyond my most optimistic hopes. Of course, he hasn't really pitched an 80 degree day with the wind blowing out at Wrigley yet.

All I keep thinking is that we can't possibly stay this lucky with Marquis and Lilly all season. One of them has to suck or at least be mediocre eventually, right? I mean, Lilly's K/BB right now is just absurd. Wow. Then again, Maddux started out looking like Maddux in his prime last year.

+1

Nah... 15-2 2.51 ERA

Anyone think the Bulls will be doing whatever possible (in a non-cheap way) to make Wade worry about that shoulder? Force him to drive the opposite way and expose it on offense, force him to run into a lot of picks on defense, etc.

Gooden was already a big star and had proven himself to be a phenomenal major league pitcher when he was battling his problems. EDIT - Guess I'm a few minutes too late.