Whatever timeframe you want to separate by, it's pretty clear that there was a stretch that he was on fire, coupled by mediocre to okay play, with awful play at the beginning of the year. That's the point, that the sample you used contained stretches of okay/great/mediocre, and that aside from that great stretch(which happened to be about a 4 week stretch) he's been a poor offensive player. That's your whole Macias argument all over again. "Take away that weekend in San Diego...............". But you've never explained the rationale behind discounting a positive outlier, but not the negative outlier whenever you don't like the guy. Because in each of those cases the negative outlier is much closer to the norm. Macias has been garbage his whole life(and the SD thing was more a tribute to how his small number of AB's was easily skewed), and Pierre hasn't been "good"(in quotations because Pierre at his best is still not spectacular, but a worthwhile leadoff hitter) since the Cubs were last a winning team. Also, it was someone else than me that was claiming Pierre had made some sort of adjustment and had used a long period of time as justification. It's worth pointing out that when you isolate his hot streak from the beginning of the time in question, it shows that Pierre's improvement is more of just that, a hot streak, than an adjustment that has led to a consistent, marked improvement.