Transmogrified Tiger

At this rate Felix might be at a .780 OPS by morning.

Has been just about all year I believe, and he is tonight. Pie adds a walk in his second PA. EPatt is 0 for 1 with a walk.

milb.com has 'em now too

Is NSBB saying they'd rather have Veal or Gallagher? Considering age, production, position and tools Pie is the clear winner. It's more of a reward for the best season than a best prospect evaluation.

Again, Theriot has no power, but I see an OBP over .350 both of those years, compared to Cedeno's abysmal .270. And Theriot has been a better basestealer too, no? (Sorry, can't find his minor league SB stats) If you sent Cedeno down to AA I think you'd see him put up pretty good overall production. Even moreso if you started him at Peoria. But that's not the point. What I'm getting at is overall, Cedeno is the better asset, but Theriot fits our immediate needs better. Theriot in his minor league career was 115 for 154 in stolen bases, 74.6%. He seems to have alternated between real good and real bad in different seasons.

About bloody time. Wonder what this does to minorleaguesplits.com. And for a positional player, Felix Pie

When Theriot was as old as Cedeno is this year, he split the year between Lansing(.259/.353/.318/.671) and West Tennessee(.236/.351/.270/.621). Cedeno is(or should be viewed as) the more valuable commodity. However, for the purposes of being a middle infielder, Theriot being more advanced works to his advantage, so hopefully someone will see Cedeno's big helping of tools and potential and he can help bring in a more valuable player.

2 IP 28 pitches

"On base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on base percentage.....the problem we have to address more than anything is the home run problem" If it weren't for my horse, if it weren't for my horse...

I'm setting a 90% probability that postgame discussion is dominated by Dusty leaving in Z too long, especially considering the game situation. wtg hitters though

Is he injured? ETA: I realize you meant his roster situation and that he's unlikely to get the roster nod, but I was wondering because I hadn't heard either way. I have to think something's wrong with him. He was out of the lineup for several days, and then EPatt got promoted.

Poor Mike Fontenot

Didn't need to be converted. Shh, I prefer to think my rants and raves are actually listened to.

The obscene year not likely to repeat theory is the same with Soriano, no? Yep, although at least in that case you don't have to pay in players to get him. True, but if you go after Soriano, you have to give up prolly 2 draft picks, plus, IDK considering his agent, prolly have to give about $14-16 mill for five yrs. So, IMO, in the long run it is more expensive to go after Soriano then Wells, and their games isn't the far off. I'm not quite sure how the draft pick compensation would work. Remember that we would only be giving up one pick, because the extra sandwich pick isn't ours to begin with. And this year our first rounder is protected, lowering the value of that tradeoff.

Well that's one convert to the Pie camp. You all should be ashamed of yourselves.

Where'd you get the numbers? That's good stuff. Unfortunately, those percentages don't bode well for Harvey. In general, a player's BABIP should be roughly 110 points over their LD %(not an absolute by any sense, but a guideline. For example, speedy players often outperform their expected BABIP). Even in his hot months Harvey doesn't seem to be hitting all that many line drives(with an expected BABIP well under .300). On the plus side, his April-June LD% are so low it's scary, and hopefully flukish.

The obscene year not likely to repeat theory is the same with Soriano, no? Yep, although at least in that case you don't have to pay in players to get him.

Join. I'm weary of him too, but I'd still rather have Soriano than Lee. What about Vernon Wells? Vernon has made no secret that he is planning to leave Toronto after the 2007 season. I mean over the career, Soriano has posted a .280/.320/.500 season for his career, whereas Wells has posted .285/.330/..481. And Wells is regarded as one of the better defensive CFers in the game, whereas scouts/GMs acknowledge the fact that Soriano can play the position, just not as weel considering his athlethicism. Wells isn't that great in CF. He's a bit above average, but nothing special. Overall he's a good player, but acquiring him now means you're paying (players and dollars) for his obscene year that he's not likely to repeat (consistently at least). Not a very good allocation of resources IMO, especially considering Pie.

I dare you to make your pick IMB!

Join.

This is exactly the point. If the peripherals don't show any change, then yes, it is the same as Neifi going through a hot streak. Maybe it means he's showing a little better ability to hit for average(too bad we don't have access to type of batted ball data, BK?), but as it pertains to Harvey, he'd need a lot more than that to compensate for his still poor plate discipline. Do you really think Harvey is going to become a .300 level hitter(or to word it without an arbitrary number, be significantly better at hitting for average) because of this adjustment? If you do, then we're just going to fundamentally disagree. Otherwise we're arguing a matter of degrees that he's going to improve without any changes in his BB's and K's.

I don't think you're reading carefully if you think people are looking for negative all the time, especially when it comes to prospects and the posters who consistently post about them. You're putting words in my mouth. I never said anything was an absolute. The peripherals I'm talking about are his plate discipline, walks and K's. That's the stuff that needs improvement, with or without fluctuation in BABIP. Like I said, he's been better in August and he's also had the report of a shorter swing, so maybe he'll be able to build upon that. If he doesn't, then it's not going to matter that he has a shorter swing if he continues to avoid walks and K at that rate. Unless those peripherals improve, then Harvey needs to be a .300+ hitter at the major league level in order to be a worthwhile corner OF. That's where the BABIP comes in, because in all likelihood he's not going to be able to do that.

I'd bet more people get upset because people still don't understand that Billy Beane isn't a "hero" to most people who subscribe to what is described in the book. People get upset because there is so much misinterpretation that comes up everytime the word "Moneyball" is mentioned it's almost impossible to make a point.

You really should care. I should care that his BABIP indicates he likely won't keep hitting .370 with a .700 slg? I care about improvements, adjustments, and growth from prospects, and he's showing that. Stat's aren't everything. Also, nice job taking a small part of the quote out of context, while adding nothing to the conversation. I've said plenty on the topic of Harvey, even in this very thread. You can't just dismiss the fact that Harvey is on a hot streak when there aren't notable peripheral changes to support that. When a player has a hot streak that is almost entirely held up by Balls in Play(In August he's had a better go of it, although his power has returned to previous levels), it's worth pointing out that it's not sustainable and he will return to his previous subpar production without changes in those areas. And while it's true that "stats aren't everything", stats in the right context are very important. Looking beyond the stats should mean trying to find reasons to explain the performance/stats, not discounting the performance/stats out of hand.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the word of the evening is age. Age relative to level is where it's at, and it's why Pie is the runaway choice for Minor League POY. Felix is playing this entire season at 21 years old. Donald Veal is a year younger and 2 levels below. Much less impressive. Gallagher reached AA at age 20, but he spent half the year at Daytona like Veal. Any disparity is gapped and more by this discrepancy in age relative to level. And remember, Felix dominated AA at that age as well, and has carried it forward where Gallagher and Veal have not. All others are out of the question. Jake Fox is 24 and just making it to AA, Pie will be making Major League All-Star games by then. Scott Moore is a year older and a level behind, get him outta here. Like any good player/team making a run at an end of the season honor, Felix has turned it on during the home stretch. As his team battles for a postseason spot, Pie has caught fire, putting up an obscene .357/.400/.631/1.031 line in August. When the going gets tough, Pie gets going, sporting improved numbers once runners get on, once they get into scoring position, and with 2 outs. Clutch may not exist, but if it does Felix has it coming out of his ears. And let's face it, Pie is the jewel of the system. He flashes all 5 tools, he's been a winner, scouts love him, stat people like him, he's got charisma, he WANTS this award. Vote for Felix. Best prospect in the system with the most impressive showing when you consider the word of the day, age, and the fact that he is at the highest level of MiLB while turning in amazing performances to help his team chase the playoffs down the stretch. Vote for the wrong candidate if you like, many of you already have, but deep down everyone has to admit to themselves that this guy deserves it. VOTE FELIX(He has a great smile too!) http://media.scout.com/Media/Image/18/182285.jpg