Why is that hard to believe? They were 6th in the based on record last season, and 2 teams were within 2 games of them. Some teams have improved, while some Cubs fans believe that the rotation really overachieved last season and is bound to regress. They were also 2 games from having the 3rd best record, pythag-wise. We can debate progression/regression for every team until the end of time, but the Cubs were relatively easily among the Top 8 teams last year, and they've improved the roster. It's irrationally pessimistic to have them as low as 8th.