Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Good HBT analysis of the last 2 postseason debacles
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
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My bad, I somehow saw both of his LD as 19, instead of the 13 from last year. Even then, he still outperformed his LD% in '08, and not by the "oh he's got good speed it should be a little higher than expected" amount either.
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I think 2008 is a lot closer to where he is than 2007. His batted balls remained largely the same, and his BABIP came down to reasonable levels. With his age he could improve of course, but given his swing at everything mentality(his P/PA is Theriotian, 108th of 147 qualified), I think he's a little more exploitable than most. He's also an average defensive CF who didn't play an inning there last year, and doesn't have a great arm.
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Dempster?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubzfan64's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
C.C. seems to hail from the Livan Hernandez school of overused heavy guys. They don't get injured, they just start pitching terribly. -
Pence also has a career line of .269 .318 .466 when his BABIP isn't 60-70 points higher than it should be, and he's nothing special defensively. Seriously, on an offense+defense basis, how much better is he going to be than Pie next year? If Pie OPS's .700? And he's the centerpiece for Peavy?
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Whaaaa? Slightly hyperbolic because of ages and Pence's lack of platoon split, but they aren't far off in what they would be expected to produce.
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If Hunter Pence gets to be the center of a package for Peavy, then Reed Johnson should work just as well.
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Colin Wyers: 2009 Marcels projections
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
It's horrible. They basically say Dempster was a fluke and Harden will collapse. Don't buy it. What about Marmol? His ERA wasn't over 4 was it? -
Colin Wyers: 2009 Marcels projections
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If you look at the link, you'll see that the ERA's are regressed to the mean in a big way. Harden is one of only 18 pitchers out of 1000 projected to have an ERA under 4. And now that I moved the pitchers into an actual xls file, I found Kerry. 4.23 ERA. -
http://www.editgrid.com/user/cwyers/2009_Marcels_Projections Name PA AVG OBP SLG OPS DeRosa 496 .277/.357/.433/.790 Fontenot 342 .281/.363/.439/.802 Fukudome 495 .258/.360/.389/.749 Hoffpauir 240 .282/.354/.444/.798 Johnson 387 .277/.346/.406/.752 Lee 549 .299/.386/.501/.887 Pie 246 .251/.321/.386/.707 Ramirez 522 .291/.370/.524/.894 Soriano 451 .279/.346/.528/.874 Soto 481 .289/.372/.494/.866 Theriot 530 .284/.357/.368/.725 Cedeno ~250 ~.250/~.310/.~385/~.695 Cedeno's are estimates because I don't know which "Cedenro" is which. That's the average of the two, and they're pretty close to each other either way. I'm too lazy to do the pitchers right now, but they're there too. In short: Z: 4.07 ERA Lilly: 4.49 Marquis: 4.70 Dempster: 4.11 Harden: 3.70 Marmol: 4.01 Wuertz: 4.33 Samardzija: 4.21 And I can't find Wood.
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At least I'm not hand picking a single stat and then acting like it shows you're 100% correct. Look at his home/road splits and what Arlington did for other hitters in 2008 and then try to tell me with a straight face that he was the 5th most valuable player in the league. If you do you're just lying to yourself and are biased. Pretty simple. 3rd best hitter on his own team. 139 OPS+ in Arlington, obviously significantly better than what Arlington did for other hitters in '08.
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He had a 139 OPS+ in Arlington, it's not like he was hitting the same as everyone else in that park. His overall OPS+ is nearly Top 5 in the AL. He's 4th in the AL in Runs Created, 5th in Win Shares and VORP, 8th in EqA, 2nd in Equivalent Runs, and had a 9.4 WARP3. EDIT: I can only assume you're referring to the Awards voting thread, in which a whopping total of 8 people voted and placed Hamilton an average of 7th in AL MVP, and no higher than 4th.
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I like the idea of Shark starting
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Dallas Green's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
There's a difference in selling high on a reliever after a good season, and trading away a very good pitcher. Marmol isn't a reliever because he failed at starting, he has phenomenal stuff and he's had great success relieving for 2 years and 155 IP. If someone wants to sell the farm to make Marmol their closer of the future, that's definitely alright with me. But that's got nothing to do with selling high, it's just letting people overvalue a good player. -
Couple fun links to pass along: Celebrity Big 10 Jeopardy (NSFW language)
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it is impossible to screw the pooch against indiana. they got destroyed by iowa and ball state, they're extremely terrible. michigan state is pretty tough, but i just cannot see penn state losing their last game of the season at home with a national championship bid on the line. WVU/Pitt
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I think I'm finally over last night. I read something today to help put it in perspective, that Mizzou may be the only team in the country last year(save Hawaii) that didn't lose a game they shouldn't have. Having that continue for 2 years(especially with the high rank target on their backs) probably wasn't feasible, and at least it was to a pretty good team. My hope is that the OSU game prepped our O-Line on how to fix what they did wrong last week and be able to move the ball on offense, cause I don't see us winning without putting up 50 points.
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Dempster?
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Cubzfan64's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I don't have a strong opinion either way, but they can't let Dempster go and try to replace him internally. Another starter(the caliber is up for debate) would need to be added via FA or Trade. -
Oh come on, this is not what I needed to see. They were practically looking for plays to overturn all night and they missed that?
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thanks, i was curious about that. it's probably a good thing that daniel won't wear it again though, he was pretty lousy tonight, as was the entire offense. Given how superstitious Daniel is(the ESPN Mag article on him talks about it), I was almost surprised he didn't come out for the second half wearing number 10.
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To answer Andy's question about Daniel's number, Aaron O'Neal was a redshirt Freshman at Mizzou who died before his redshirt freshman season. Since this would've been his senior year, one senior is wearing his number, 25, without a name each game this season. Tonight it was Daniel.
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If you had told me OSU was going to score 28 points, I would've been stoked. The thing is I can't figure out what went wrong, aside from everything. Daniel was awful and so was the O-Line(some of that goes hand in hand). The run game got abandoned, people dropped passes, a couple interference calls weren't made, it was just an endless concatenation of terrible.
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In that instance, Bama and Texas go to the title game, chiefly because their schedule strength dwarfs PSU's, not because they were ranked higher to start the season.
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Players that are "traded away" rarely get their true value in a deal. Beltran's contract, his status amongst the fans/media, and Minaya's inability to ignore the fan/media perception mean that if he were dealt it would be less than his actual worth.
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So you're saying that during the preseason nobody really knows how good any team is and therefore it's unfair that the BCS could be affected by that uncertainty? I'm saying the first ranking of any kind to come out should be the Week 8 BCS ranking. If you have a situation where three teams end the year undefeated, the one who started the year with the lowest preseason ranking is most likely going to be left out. Yes, the human poll is "only" 1/3 of the formula, but that's big enough that it shouldn't be arbitrary early in the season The Mock BCS from earlier this week had PSU in a distant 5th place. They're not disproportionately ranked in the human polls.
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Lee, Cedeno, Pie, Hill/Marshall for Cain and Lewis sounds real interesting. It's hard to balance the Giants' need for youth and Sabean's obsession for age though.
