40 runs is an awful lot, especially when Ibanez doesn't even OPS .900. 10 runs = 1 win? Yep. seems a little odd/arbitrary to me, but whatever. BP has gathright at 84 EqR in 839 PAs the past 3 seasons ibanez is at 311 EqR in 2042 PAs. so if you assume that each guy gets 650 PAs in full playing time, at their current level of production, gathright would produce 65 runs while ibanez produces 99. so 34 runs difference. i guess my figure was a bit high but not off by much, and i don't see how gathright is 3.4 "wins" better than ibanez in the field. Using wOBA, Ibanez projects around .345 for next year(James says .346, Marcel .344). With .328 as league average, that puts him about 10 runs above average. UZR has him around -24 in LF in '07 and -11 in '08. Moving to RF and getting a year older isn't going to help that, but let's say he's -10 to be simple and he's net zero above average. Gathright is a career +19 defender in LF, +13 in CF. We'll split the difference conservatively(since RF is between LF and CF, closer to LF, on the defensive spectrum) and say he's +15 in RF. To put him on par with Ibanez, he needs to be at worst -15 at the plate, which is a .302 wOBA. Marcel has him at .302(.264/.333/.329 slash line) and James .315(.281/.356/.321) next year. This is where I differ from Colin, since I think those projections are optimistic for Gathright, a career .293 wOBA guy who put up an awful .280 last year. I don't think he's quite on par with Ibanez or Abreu on that offense+defense basis, but it's not as far fetched as you might think from looking at them offensively. That said, the extent that you agree with the logic depends on how down you are with UZR. If you think being able to put a number on runs saved is preposterous, then it's not going to carry much weight. If you think UZR has been the leader in defensive metrics to this point, then it should at least give reason for pause, even if you don't ultimately agree.