Transmogrified Tiger

Gonna start calling Noland "Ozark Assad"

The scale for Hard hit % is a little wonky because he's K'ing a lot more recently too, but there's at least a slight indicator we've hit the 'darkest before dawn' point with PCA at the plate

I really hate that this gives credence to what I was hoping was me being a game thread reactionary

I had honestly forgotten a couple of those pitchers were hurt, that's how ridiculous the pitching injuries have been

Also, Bigge was hurt and just started his season a month ago, and has thrown with less than 2 days rest only one time. I think he is the closest to being ready(though he has a 40 man obstacle Palencia and Arias do not), but he isn't at that point quite yet.

That is because they belong in Iowa, at least for the time being.

Boy "spectacular" is sure doing some heavy lifting. Even after an excellent outing tonight, Herz's MLB performance is about 8th among Cubs who have started games this year, ahead of only Hendricks. He's made some progress with walks, though judging by his HR rate it's very possible he's just daring MLB hitters to hit center cut fastballs when he's behind in the count and at least once an outing they gladly oblige.

Gonna do just enough to make me remember that 2 of Philly's runs came on 85 mph EV doubles with a combined .220 BA

To go back to last night, my impression from being there If you have the chance to see the US A-team play a good opponent, you should do so. The atmosphere is great and unique among sporting experiences. Similarly, if you have the chance to go to a world cup game you should do that Both fanbases kept trying to chant/counter-chant U-S-A or Ur-u-guay and it became hilariously muddled every time That ref was some Remember the Titans nonsense, clearly not why they didn't advance but honestly indistinguishable from someone actively throwing the game. Between St Louis City and now this game I have watched the same match in person too many times this year. Be the better side but don't have enough attacking quality in the final third, give up a questionable/unjust goal, and be incapable of getting a breakthrough against a team with no interest in putting numbers forward.

My understanding is that it is less true than it used to be, partially due to the proliferation of MLS academies, and MLS participating in solidarity payments when they did not before a few years ago. I've also seen estimates that are far from free but also significantly lower than 8-10k (like 2-3k), and this is something that can vary across a very large country. It is still a problem, though one that is not as simple as the federation simply deciding to make it low/no cost. US Soccer doesn't reasonably have the money to do this, which is why progress has happened via MLS and their academies who can make that more sustainable.

I would also say that even if you do have strong conviction that one of the likely available names is BPA, there's so much muddled beyond the top 8 or so that it's very plausible that you can get that guy to take an underslot deal because there's little guarantee he doesn't slide to 20 or worse if you don't take him. The one exception would probably be Yesavage given the lack of other pitchers in that range, but absent a player having a guarantee from one of the Red Sox or White Sox right after, I think you can safely assume your hitter BPA can still come at a 500k discount to slot in many cases.

Coming back to this now that I'm not on the road, if the Cubs had an elite closer I'd be fine with cashing in on that value given bullpen volatility, but they don't. Burnes they waited til he was on the cusp of free agency after multiple years of rumors. But to bring this back to the Cubs, I would group these possibilities into 2 different buckets. One bucket is the players who are clearly above the '2-win whatever' standard and are the types of players you are likely to simply hemorrhage value by trading. Steele and Hoerner are in this boat primarily, and while I'm willing to admit there's a narrow path to a Bellinger trade working out, I simply don't think he will have any reasonable trade value so we should prefer to bet on his demonstrated ceiling and the possibility he doesn't opt out. The other bucket is players who are good and not overpaid, but have a high enough dollar amount that they will not have significant trade value without eating significant money(specifically *future seasons money*), which eliminates a big part of the point of trading them to begin with. The idea of trading Taillon, Happ, or Suzuki will outstrip the reality. I also don't find it compelling that simply clearing the money puts you on a path to being better. Freeing up money while creating additional holes is generally a video game mindset that doesn't work out, as it requires unrealistic hit rates from prospects and in free agency. Beyond this group though, I don't have a problem not being precious with trading players, especially given that the positional and offensive balance isn't particularly fine tuned at the moment. Morel, Tauchman, Amaya, Assad, Wicks, even Brown or PCA in the right move I can get behind, to say nothing of the positional prospect group in the high minors.

Archetypes might look like the Busch trade, the Arrieta trade, or (least likely), trading for a pending FA you intend to immediately extend.

Like Tom I think people get too wrapped up in buy vs sell as a binary distinction. Make moves to make next year better, if they come with making 2024 better too i don’t think that’s throwing away value given the team’s talent and the bar for the wild card.

Selling as a concept exists to make tomorrow better in exchange for making today worse. In the current playoff environment, at the deadline it means mostly trading expiring contracts, of which the Cubs only really have Hendricks. The number of players that will make 2025 or 2026 better by trading away is incredibly small and does not include Hoerner or Taillon. It probably doesn’t include Bellinger either. Therefore, a more aggressive sell means having a view that the team needs 2.5+ years to be truly competitive. This strikes me as absurd and indefensible, especially given the aforementioned playoff environment.

These are gross and lazy. Do better.

Thank you for asking, no it is not

Counsell's thirst for velocity seems to have won out Hooray for Ethan How many rib fractures can one team have? Nearly 3 pages of back and forth about Nittoli and it turns out he was barely a waiver stash

They would not come close to getting Smith-Shawver and might not even be able to get Guanipa alone for Bellinger, which is why he shouldn't and won't be traded.

I will caveat this though that maybe there's something with the AA funhouse mirror run environment that's suppressing the walks a bit. It feels like it's not a primary cause compared to the tacky ball they were using last year, but mainly this is a 'you can't walk less than 5% of the time in AA(and also have poor BB rates previously) and make it in the modern game'

Without fairly significant changes in swing decisions I don't think he's an above average MLB bat.

I'm still fairly bearish on Triantos because I think the excess swing is going to bite him at the big league level, maybe even at AAA too. But the high average with increased pop, SB, and apparently looking playable at 2B and CF is much more well rounded than I anticipated. So at a minimum it looks like he's giving himself more room for error.

So we're gonna say that this game has a total of 8 minutes of stoppage time, well that's about 8 minutes short. Good stuff, excellent system

TBH I thought it was like his 2nd or 3rd start before I checked because I noticed him there on Monday, so I think you're far from alone on that one.

I assume that Happ is getting a partial breather by DHing like Counsell has done so often. Also this is Bellinger's 5th straight defensive start in RF, and in June so far he has more innings in RF (59) than CF (56).