Transmogrified Tiger
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Berry was also one where a number of people were skeptical, though I think Schanuel(also a super fast riser!) wasn't as universally missed. Wilson didn't get discussed as much as a Berry, mostly because basically everyone had a 'please no' reaction, and there also wasn't much buzz or mock activity connecting him to the Cubs, unlike Berry/Schanuel -
King is the one guy I would probably be least enthused about among the college bats. That said, the corollary last year pre-draft probably would've been Jacob Wilson(IIRC there were several 'thank you Oakland' posts when he was drafted), and he has a .414/.435/.635 line split across A+, AA, and AAA(including .461./494./731 in AA/AAA!), so a good reminder that who knows when it comes to these things.
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This dynamic also means that you make huge improvements on the team's level if you can marry those two and fill a hole with a very good player, it's just that the options are not numerous. But like, if you like Danny Jansen now, go get him and start negotiations on an extension. He's not a Boras client, he's a Chicago guy who has spent his career not being thought of as a locked on starter, and the cost to get him is not going to be damaging even in the worst case scenario. Or if the Rays give you even the slightest inclination that they want to cash in on Paredes before he hits arb and let Caminero or Mead play 3B? Cash in that upper minors hitter surplus that no one else is going to be able to reasonably match.
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I don't have an elegant way of tying these thoughts together so I'll just bullet them I think removing players who are high floor or elite ceiling or both is not necessary to compete in 2025 I think those players generally have little trade value so you get nothing but additional freed up money along with a hole that costs just as much to fill similarly on the open market I think the team is generally closer than their last 2 months would imply. They're one game/month from being at .500 and 1 team/2 GB of the playoffs. I find it very plausible they would be there with slightly less catastrophic injury luck. I think the 2025 Cubs get more bang for their buck by plugging gaping wounds than by hunting elite production above all else. A league average catcher in 2025 is likely just as big upgrade on 2024 production than 2025 Soto is an upgrade on 2024 Bellinger. Ideally you don't have to choose, but... I think the only player who the team may need to remove salary to fit into an offseason plan is Soto, and even that is uncertain in its necessity. If you do need it, you wait til you sign him before making such a deal because you aren't banking on the return influencing your roster build anyway
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If what you would get for Taillon would then get you a young starter worth trading for(or close to it), a team would just do that instead of trading for Taillon. Also, the team does not lack for young/pre-arb or higher ceiling starters who can impact 2025, there's no less than 4 guys who fit either/both of those categories, and that doesn't include Wesneski. That's not to say that a controlled, quality starter isn't desirable, but playing the paperclip trading game with Taillon to try to make yourself marginally better/cheaper when you don't lack for that upshot in the org already doesn't strike me as a particularly good use of the talent you've accumulated.
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Tom is right, unless you think/want the Cubs to make moves to optimize for 2026 or really 2027, 'selling' essentially means trading pending FA deals. The Cubs don't have any of those worth trading unless you want to hold out the hope that Bellinger will bring a meaningful return(he will not).
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It is absurd to think that Morel, a player promoted from AA and who continues to play regularly at 3B despite having an unlucky season at the plate and being the worst defensive 3B in MLB by a country mile, is not gonna have the chance to show his stuff because other guys have the label of 1st round pick. As much as we could've hoped this was not the case, we are getting a very clear lens into Christopher Morel the defender, and he has not shown any optimism that he can do so at the MLB level. He was unplayably error prone on the infield as a minor leaguer, and right now he has been so bad(33rd of 33) at the MLB level that the difference between him and 2nd worst is the gap between 2nd worst and a top half 3B defender based on 2024 performances. I know it lacks the obvious visual explanation like a big oaf being incapable of making defensive plays or covering ground, but it is the same type of story. You ever see a terrific athlete that hasn't played much baseball try to play defense? Morel is essentially the MLB version of that, and at age 25 we can't lean on repetition or age-related progression to save him from that fate.
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I don't think we need to 'find out' if Nico can handle third, he's a well above average SS and 2B, there's no reason to think that wouldn't translate if the team thought that was the best way forward. But for Morel, who has been poor defensively at every position he's played a non-trivial amount of innings, who struggles with catching the ball and throwing it accurately, I don't see reason to think 2B as a solution is more than hopeful thinking.
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Morel playing at a -4 full-season rate as a big league 2B (in limited time) does not fill me with optimism that his problems are solved by moving to the right side of the infield. At a minimum, it's not enough upshot for me to want to relocate the 4 win 2B we have under contract for the next several seasons just to find out.
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Morel played more third base than any other position in the minor leagues, the Cubs clearly did not spring 3B on him late in the offseason, and he has a half season of innings in an MLB OF that were also horrific defensively. The most likely outcome is that he is not good enough to be a decent MLB defender at any position. That doesn't make him useless, but he does need to turn things around with the bat fairly quickly because a below average bat with that defense is a borderline MLBer instead of a guy straddling the line between 1st division starter(Ian Happ) and 2nd division starter.
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Merryweather, Kilian, and Alzolay are all on the 60 day too, so Brewer's time can still be fairly short. But if Davis is a long shot to stay rostered, they might prefer pulling that trigger now. It keeps an arm on the 40 man longer, and exposes Davis at a time he's more likely to slide through and be successfully outrighted if both parties want that.
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Bigge needs a 40 man spot, so unless Hendricks jumps straight to the 60 day IL that wouldn't be enough. I kinda wonder if this is the moment they'll give up the ghost and DFA Davis.
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Roster Resource has the best public accounting of LT status I've seen, and they have them 3+ million under: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/cubs Bonuses, extra IL stints, etc will impact that final number and we can't be 100% certain either way given how close they are. I do agree though that if they set out to get under the LT/be certain they stay under the LT, it won't be difficult to do so, and wouldn't impact the direction they choose to go with deadline moves.
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In practice, probably. But it wouldn't be unjust at all to just make the call, because the rule exists and in this tournament in particular there's been an escalation in how much takers are breaking it.
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Referees really need to start calling out these penalty takers for stopping. It's one thing when the stutters clearly have movement, even if it's an exaggerated trailing leg swing, but Ronaldo came to a dead stop twice on his penalty. It's always been against the spirit of the rule but now they're starting to flaunt the letter of it too.
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Ian Happ, who switch hits to trick you into thinking he can do 2 things well when in fact it is zero, now up to 9th in qualified OF in wRC+
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Bellinger had 8 straight starts in RF before yesterday, it's clear that the only thing keeping him from there is if he needs to play CF.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-4-24
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Gonna start calling Noland "Ozark Assad" -
The scale for Hard hit % is a little wonky because he's K'ing a lot more recently too, but there's at least a slight indicator we've hit the 'darkest before dawn' point with PCA at the plate
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I really hate that this gives credence to what I was hoping was me being a game thread reactionary
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I had honestly forgotten a couple of those pitchers were hurt, that's how ridiculous the pitching injuries have been
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Also, Bigge was hurt and just started his season a month ago, and has thrown with less than 2 days rest only one time. I think he is the closest to being ready(though he has a 40 man obstacle Palencia and Arias do not), but he isn't at that point quite yet.
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That is because they belong in Iowa, at least for the time being.
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Minor League Musings
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Little Slide Rooter's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Boy "spectacular" is sure doing some heavy lifting. Even after an excellent outing tonight, Herz's MLB performance is about 8th among Cubs who have started games this year, ahead of only Hendricks. He's made some progress with walks, though judging by his HR rate it's very possible he's just daring MLB hitters to hit center cut fastballs when he's behind in the count and at least once an outing they gladly oblige. -
Gonna do just enough to make me remember that 2 of Philly's runs came on 85 mph EV doubles with a combined .220 BA
