Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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74 players have 400 innings at 3B since the start of 2022(Walls has 412). Walls is tied for 27th in OAA and 18th in UZR. The idea that he's one of the ten best defenders in the league is an extreme stretch. His AAA numbers are not very distinguished given the current gap between AAA and MLB, it's very similar to Mastrobuoni who is not playing at even a platoon level currently. He had 466 PA in Tampa in 2022 and 349 last year, this is not someone who is getting one at bat a week that's suppressing his numbers. Fangraphs put a 30 on his game power, there isn't a hidden vein of slug that makes him a viable 3B. His LHP numbers last year are in 90 PA, and in a slightly larger sample the previous year had a 67 wRC+ against them. Lastly, Walls is 28, and about to be arb eligible, which means especially for a fringe roster guy he is not particularly young or cheap. Just wait for Madrigal to be healthy, we can do the same squinting in a slightly different offensive package.- 85 replies
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- justin steele
- cody bellinger
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Walls has 6 bWAR based on being a +42 defender in less than 2 seasons worth of innings, which is unfortunately not substantiated by UZR(roughly +5) or OAA(-10) and why he has cumulative 0.4 fWAR. He has over 1000 PA of 73 wRC+ at the MLB level, how does that fit the current roster at all
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Third base may end up be the defining choice for how long Jed's tenure ends up lasting. Because of how the rest of the roster is shaped(established vets in the corners + Busch at 1B, glove first options at 2B, SS, & probably CF), it is the obvious place to make a big upgrade if you can at all. But the position just doesn't have that league-wide, you're either paying through the nose for a Paredes and hoping he continues, paying all the dollars and a pick for Bregman for him to go back to juiced-ball/trashcan levels of production, or you're doing something more creative. I don't have an objection to creativity, but it means by definition you probably can't count on that spot being a big bat, which means the margins in the rest of the offense are that much narrower.
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His last 30 days entering tonight: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 12/4 K/BB
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It is that far out of the realm of possibility for 2025, probably 2026 too. I mean we're talking about Kjerstad(ZiPS 110 wRC+ projection as a COF/DH) and Mayo(ZiPS 106 wRC+ as a 3B/1B/DH) as the headliners in the 'well the Orioles won't do it but if they did then yeah it's on' mold. In the offseason you can at least squint and come up with something since teams might be willing to trade players who have more MLB certainty, but not at the deadline. Or we could flip this on its head and just trade from our own list of high minors Top 100 hitters or graduate them. We have five of them already!
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I think you're misunderstanding me, I'm saying if you trade Steele you need to nuke the roster. I'm not going to be a luddite and think that trading Steele can't be a net positive, but I do think it's extremely unlikely to be a positive on a 2025-26 timeline, and if you're making a team already selling at the deadline worse in 2025-26, then you need to lean in and finish the job by either trading or extending several more guys.
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Mayo + Kjerstad would be a short term step back for the window that this roster has. If you're trading Steele you ought to be firing Jed and trading *everyone*, but instead we seem to be of the mind that the 2025-26 Cubs can be better by trading Steele, which is a very poor assumption. Let's say this another way, no one had any interest in trading Steele prior to this season, and I would bet a lot of fake money that anyone who as eyes on being competitive in the upcoming 2 years will not be very interested in trading him in the offseason either. But since being a "Seller (tm)" demands getting rid of players and we don't have a classic rental to haggle over the cost of trading, we offer Steele because he 1) could get a large return and 2) is potentially desirable to a "Buyer (tm)". But it doesn't actually help towards the goals that make you decide to sell to begin with, again unless you're on team 'nuke the roster', which I don't really see in any significant number.
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Steele is 7th in MLB in ERA since the start of 2022, he doesn't need more upside and his current level can decline and still be very valuable to a competitive Cubs team. Trading Steele would be for players with much larger downside risk as well. I continue to not understand so many people's thinking about how to approach the deadline.
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I don't know if this is the plan for certain, but the repeater penalties only become a concern if you continue to raise payroll and live well above the tax line. Take two hypotheticals of a 3 year sample: A: under LT, 10 million over, 18 million over; 7.4 million in total penalties B: 5 million over, 10 million over, 15 million over; 13 million in total penalties In neither outcome are there draft penalties, and you're saving less than 6 million in penalties across a 3 year span by ducking under this first year. Plus in the Cubs case, after year 3 (2026) they have an easy opportunity to reset(Bellinger, Happ, Seiya, Taillon, and Hoerner all FA), so there's less of a slippery slope. Not to mention a new CBA starts in 2027.
- 85 replies
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- justin steele
- cody bellinger
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-21-24
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Palencia has about 90 innings above High A and a 13.3% BB% in those innings. You can be an MLB reliever with that many walks but it also requires doing things that Palencia hasn't done, namely being very hard to barrel/hit HR off of. I don't see an urgency to get rid of him, and Estrada is an example that adjustments are possible, but I also think there needs to be *something* that results in a step change for Palencia. He's not on a path that ends with productive MLB RP, so whether that's something mechanical to improve command, a pitch mix change, or something else, he needs to do something to get there. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
Last year Atlanta had a really big outlier in HR/FB, it was 19.1% and no team since the pandemic had cleared 16%. That was probably bound to regress and then you have the ball or whatever is suppressing offense this year probably impacting them further if they're that reliant on HR for offense. Acuna getting hurt doesn't help either, and I'm guessing there's some feedback loop effects where they benefitted from everyone hitting well simultaneously so the broken chain brings everyone down a bit(hitting with men on base less often, etc). -
Be the change you wish to see in the world, etc
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Viera has cachet with players thanks to his playing career, speaks excellent English, has familiarity and success coaching US players, and otherwise for club has not been actively bad(which is the maximum you can hope for). Hard to do much better than him, IMO.
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Trevor Bauer Continues to get Worse
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Bertz's topic in General Baseball Talk
he went to an off-brand Westworld, I will consider no other theories about this -
I actually missed the 3rd series the first 2 times I scanned because it's in small print, so I thought it was only 2 in Japan and 3 in LA. 2/3/2 is fine since 4/3 would've been a perfectly normal outcome otherwise, complaint withdrawn.
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The Tokyo series taking home games from us and not the Dodgers is kinda dumb.
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I agree that Morel doesn't make much sense to trade at the deadline, he can do more for his value by keeping him and having progression to the batted ball mean, despite losing marginal value with service time. I don't think you can reasonably go into 2025 with him on the roster though, unless you've done other more dramatic things with the OFs. Yes there aren't a bunch of terrific options for 3B in FA, but at the same time you can't consider Morel playable there if you have competitive aspirations, so his value as a 3B contingency is pretty much nil. Make a trade or do something more creative/aggressive to ensure you feel okay with 3B, personally as a longtime Moncada truther maybe giving him a pillow contract with Shaw nipping at his heels feels preferable.
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In-Season Trades and Transactions
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Post Count Padder's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The announcement I saw was that he was on a minor league deal, so I wonder if it's a coincidence and Merryweather will get Palencia's spot out of the break? -
He's had enough MLB PAs that he might just not be good enough, but Baty is the one comes to mind. Top 50 prospect, hit well without major red flags at all minor league levels, plays an okay 3rd defensively, and blocked on the current roster.
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11 IP, 15/2 K/BB in *this year's* Cape? That'll work in the 15th round.
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His brother transferred there for this season after 3 years at Mizzou. So yes but unless I misunderstood the eligibility rules(possible!) they wouldn't overlap even if Eli went to school.
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Midseason Prospect List Updates
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Cubs Rankings Prospect July 2024 -
This would be one of the funnier real life 'not like that' instances in recent memory
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I require one (1) small school college draftee with video game numbers. It's not a proper draft until they take the JuCo kid with 20 K/9 or the guy from EastWestern State Tech who has a 1.500 OPS.
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2024 MLB Home Run Derby + All Star Game Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to cl smooth's topic in General Baseball Talk
James Russell being a Home Run Derby pitcher is multiple traumas I was not prepared for
