Transmogrified Tiger

pretty amused by the 'wait, really?' hesitation from Amaya that Burleson was actually running

On his way to the futures game, same reason there's no Triantos or Ballesteros in lineups tonight.

I very much agree with the broader point, said a different way you should not freak out about performance that one very good week will normalize. With Busch's defense, I don't have any big concerns, but I'll also note his uptick also coincided with Swanson stopping his early season defensive slump and Morel's throwing stabilizing somewhat(along with playing less 3B), which undoubtedly helps. I haven't noticed a big uptick in his picking ability(his main early season problem), but I don't watch every inning so maybe others have a different perspective.

There's the Brecht mention we'll be coming back to when there are folks gnashing their teeth that the Cubs took him over Tibbs

Only at 9 active parks and 12 total it looks like, though I'm gonna check Truist off next weekend. My favorites are probably Wrigley, Target, and Coors in that order.

With 4 days to the all-star break it seems likely Bellinger gets IL'd regardless, since he'll likely need to be out a game or two in the best case scenario, and with the All-Star break coming he'd only miss 2 games after the break with a minimum stint. It's also possible he has a real fracture and needs to miss more significant time, I don't believe we've heard what the follow up testing showed.

I think depending on how you think about 'viewing contention on a longer time horizon' these thoughts are potentially in tension, but I think the practical upshot is correct. IMO, there's little chance of Jed being fired before the end of his contract next year unless something dramatic happens. Where I think there's some nuance is that Jed pretty clearly created a window that only barely outlasts his current deal, if his plan was simply to be playable until the farm system became a perpetual motion machine of winning talent I doubt he would've created the payroll cliff that he did. I also think that if ownership were pleased with the trajectory, they would be looking into extending him at a minimum to see out that window(and practically, probably longer). If this season doesn't have a pretty significant turnaround, then I suspect next year becomes as must-win for Jed as seasons go. Because while Ricketts has a lot of patience, if you can't get into the playoffs and/or past the ".500ish" level of results on the timeframe that Jed's been given, I think you probably pull the plug, and let someone new retool with all the rentals that make the team prime for a remodel after 2025.

First things first, the answer to the question is Betteridge's Law. But if you wanted to make the bull case for Mastrobuoni as a player: He's pretty consistently hit at a good level at AAA, a 122 wRC+ over 1000 PA, with 13%/19% BB/K. The plate discipline in particular separates him from Madrigals of the world among contact/low-power bats. ZiPS seems to think that translates okay, they estimate him for a 93 wRC+, which if you combine with slightly above average defense is pretty close to a league average play. He also adds value on the bases, across AAA and MLB he's 55/64 in SB. But I wouldn't put money on the ZiPS forecast, as his lack of power is probably going to lead to pitchers more fearlessly pounding the zone and make him more at the whims of the BABIP gods. Plus as a *regular* his profile is not one the Cubs can afford in a lineup that has Hoerner and probably PCA(to say nothing of the catchers). He is however, a decent bench fit, as there is no 150 game 3B on the roster, and he's the only LHH for 2B/SS/3B on the 40 man unless you stretch Busch, and no other internal options appear imminent(Shaw, Triantos, & Vazquez are all RHH). As it stands, he's perfectly fine as a 26th man option you can yo-yo to Iowa through next year. If he starts living up to that ZiPS line and there's opportunity you can give him more platoon sided bats, but the best case scenario is that he's written in pencil on the 26 man roster for 2025 similar to Tauchman in security(but not in quantity of playing time), there's just not a path to being more than that unless there was an overhaul of the roster that won't and shouldn't happen.

He got it on the left hand, he was clearly he was feeling it but in Cody fashion he was still pretty stoic, so hard to say.

Watching Little and Morel decide which one is going to grab the ball and throw it at you as hard as they can has to be a terrifying experience.

A team down a man is going to be defending in their own third, and sometimes shots from outside the box take a deflection and go in. Soccer fans in particular like to frame things as inexcusable, or 'that can't happen', when it's functionally impossible to prevent those situations (and therefore those outcomes) entirely. Again, there's this instinct to try to treat soccer managers as puppetmasters when the overwhelming majority of who wins comes down to talent(and randomness for individual games), that's dialed up to 11 for international soccer. The idea that a different manager would have achieved different results than Berhalter's track record is wishful thinking. The manager isn't going to influence Dest getting hurt, Ream, Adams, Sargent, and Reyna lacking sharpness without playing time due to injury, or Balogun, McKennie, Aaronson, etc stagnating in their development in their club situations. Those things are far, far more influential to the USMNT's success than who is coaching them.

If the main arguments against a coach are that he won a knockout game that the team dominated(near 3 xG without the own goal) and that they couldn't score on Uruguay's A team (one of the most defensively solid groups in International soccer) in a game Uruguay did not have any motivation to push numbers forward, I don't find that argument very compelling? Every country wants their national team to play beautiful, flowing soccer and win every game against a lesser country 3-0, and then everyone is always shocked and angered when the group of players who rarely trains together can't take down a bunkered opponent with surgical precision 10 times out of 10. Case in point, Gareth Southgate(a man blessed with far more talent than Berhalter can dream of) has been 30 seconds from losing his job like 4 different times in the last month, and he's the most successful manager his country has ever had by a country mile! The sample sizes, the lack of meaningful time to implement detailed tactics, knockout games being 90+% of the meaningful games, it's all just engineered to maximize randomness. So consistent product is mostly down to talent, which the US under Berhalter was basically always on the right side of(and had always been before Weah's red).

Others may disagree, but I would say yes. The interim was Gregg's top assistant who wasn't trying to change the style of play, and in terms of results was either on par or worse than what we saw in the same competitions with Berhalter.

Multiple sources reporting that Berhalter is out. I don't think he's uniquely great, but I've been so reverse polarized by the QSMNT discourse that I'm annoyed that they're doing this for basically doing exactly what they expected, minus Tim Weah losing his mind for a minute. Mostly though it's going to be funny/frustrating listening to how incompetent/corrupt/in bed with MLS the federation is when considering candidates. Then even if everyone's favorite candidate gets hired the results will be the same, because international soccer is an all-star game with a couple weeks of practice a year and managers don't matter unless they lead to player revolt.

time for a neckiotomy

Statcast's estimates say he loses a couple HR a year, though this might partially be a clash of his profile and the methodology because they say he loses a handful of HR in nearly every park: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes-670623?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Re: the under the hood stuff, Paredes was one of the short list of people who both hit the ball in the air a lot and also don't strike out much, which I argued at the time is a proxy for a specific skill in bat control. That criteria in this year's run environment gives you this list: Mookie Betts José Ramírez Vinnie Pasquantino Alex Bregman Marcus Semien Yordan Alvarez Nolan Arenado Ozzie Albies Isaac Paredes Justin Turner Francisco Lindor Adley Rutschman Will Smith Cody Bellinger Anthony Santander JJ Bleday Salvador Perez That group is averaging 120 wRC+ (a simple average, not PA-weighted).

Here's the Cubs team rank in IsoP by position: Catcher: 29th 1B: 6th (Mets are 4th) 2B: 30th SS: 21st 3B: 17th LF: 3rd CF: 20th RF: 9th DH: 10th I know it's more viscerally fun to add a 40 HR hitter, but Alonso wouldn't be marginally adding as much slug compared to a lesser slugger who plays a different position. Alternatively, this calls into question that if you are going to lean defense first up the middle with Hoerner/Swanson/PCA, you may need to bite the bullet and make Seiya your primary RF and go big at DH. Alonso wouldn't be my top pick for that though, and I assume the odds of him having interest in a mid-season extension are less than 1%.

If Seiya is considered more of a primary DH, then there's room to add an OF. Tauchman has been fine there this year but far from a permanent solution, and the only way that is a clear non-starter is if both PCA turns it on with the bat and Bellinger does not opt out, which I wouldn't put as the most likely outcome. Also free agency is not the only way to add a big bat, hence the whole conversation about a trade for Vlad to begin with.

Mastrobuoni now hitting .277/.350/.333 since his recall, which is probably about a league average line?

Gonna need a second look at whatever that Hottovy/Mallee celebration was in the dugout

Speaking of catchers, still can't shake the feeling that Janek is gonna make some team look really smart. Seems a lot more of a certain catcher defensively, and his performance at the Cape before he went supernova at SHSU feels like a reasonably high floor with room to dream on more.

Can someone more plugged in than me share what the main knocks are on Cam Smith? He had HS pedigree, made adjustments with plate discipline and hit in both the Cape and ACC, has a good frame and projects as best I can tell to be a MLB 3B(potentially even a good one). Is there bearishness on him getting to enough raw power, or worries about growing off 3B? Feels like compared to many others I don't see the blinking red warning sign, yet in mocks I don't ever see him in the top 10 and often falls closer to 20.

The bolded is the stickler for me. I can potentially see the argument if we look narrowly at the rotation, but considering the bullpen's injury troubles and issues with quality, I think there's a compounding depth issue that really cannot afford to turn away quality SP innings. Mayyybe in the offseason if Wesneski figures out the pitch mix problem and looks the part for the rest of the season. The rest I don't have enough confidence in them being a potential playoff series starter(Assad, Wicks) or they simply can't be counted on for enough innings while also potentially being needed to reinforce the pen(Horton, Brown).

I truly do not understand how people can watch this season unfold and conclude that the best way forward for short term competitiveness is getting rid of an established SP for a flyer of a return. If you think they need to plan for 2027, okay fine I disagree with that premise but at least there's logical consistency. You need all of them, this year even all of them hasn't been nearly enough!