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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    Neris has been fine for a while now, his last 15 outings had a 1.80 ERA, and over the last month he's had both excellent ERA and FIP. I don't think it's tonight's cause, but the pen at the moment is just too thin, Wesneski and I guess Miller being 3rd/4th in the pecking order is putting too much pressure on them and Neris/Leiter to be perfect when the offense isn't consistently creating margin for error.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    No
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    new rule, if the pitcher does the Kershaw Crouch (tm) off the bat it's a HR no matter what actually happens after
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    I actually don't really think that run is on Amaya, that pitch was extremely uncompetitive, and he did well to avoid it going to the screen. Then he just got unlucky that he didn't realize how well he had blocked it and kicked it out of reach.
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    we moved past the 'they look like they don't care' stuff a long, long time ago man
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    Because PCA is an excellent runner, a single then scores two runs, and teams have largely stopped even throwing down on those plays due to the lower odds of catching the runner combined with risk of the runner scoring from 3rd.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    Sounds like they will add several outside guys.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    If Nico progresses well, having him for an extra week is more valuable than having Vazquez play a couple games in Iowa and/or having Vazquez be the last man on the bench for a couple days.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    FWIW I don't know when Vazquez met up with the big league team, but I did notice he has been out of the Iowa lineup since the 6th (the day Hoerner got hit). You could interpret that as status quo on their understanding of Hoerner's status, or you could read it as the hand hasn't improved enough to send him back to Iowa in 4 days.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    1. Bellinger has limited trade value, like Bertz said no team is going to give up significant value to get a partial season of Bellinger at 27 million that becomes 2.5 years only if he underperforms. 2. The alternatives are not ready to replace his productivity. PCA has the same wRC+ as Madrigal, Caissie has zero MLB PA. 3. Even if some of the alternatives were ready, it's a false choice. Injuries, rest, and optimizing matchups mean that there's no actual surplus or problem that needs to be solved with a Bellinger trade. This is doubly true when Bellinger is a good defender at 3 different spots and multiple options around RF and 1B are uncertain defenders that can play DH(Busch, Suzuki). We need to stop thinking about team building as 9 main characters that make up the lineup and the moment you have 4 guys for 3 spots that's an issue requiring changes.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs haven't allowed a disproportionate amount of attempts, and the difference in them being in their current spot in SB allowed and being above average is roughly 1 SB every 10 games. There are tactical spots where they may need to make an adjustment like this if a particular team is likely to run them off the bases, but honestly I don't think the scale is a huge concern, certainly not to 'save their season' importance as the headline says.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    That last batter is a great example, managers feel like they need to optimize the matchup and PH a LHH, so Benson gets sent up there and gets dispatched like he's not even there.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    Don't see this broken down by how he *entered* the inning, but with runners on/off splits like this it feels impossible for your intuition to not be true, at least this year.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    I have no idea how to quantify this but it feels like Leiter is even more valuable than a reliever with equivalent production because he's so good against LHH, you can't plan around him with PH or need to stay away from certain portions of the lineup
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    Go for it man, sports are all about embracing negative emotions at the earliest and most frequent opportunity, after all.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs knocked the starter from the game in less than 2 innings, and have led by 3+ runs for the entire game. If your instinct is to be mad that a reliever held them scoreless for 8 outs, you should reflect on what your expectations are and how much you let yourself enjoy your team's successes.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    That's a slider/cutter from a lefty on the outer half and he took it about 400 feet to right center
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    Two things that might make a match here possible even with a celebrity premium: 1. The Jays are a fairly good match with other guys they may sell. If the Jays insist on 2 Top 100 guys instead of 1 and a rising prospect, expanding the deal to be more one stop shopping could break that deadlock in a way other teams may not want to. 2. This is far from certain, but there may be a permutation where the Cubs would prefer to pay a higher prospect cost in order to get the Jays to pay down some of Vlad's remaining arb money. The teams who can afford Vlad generally speaking would probably prefer to pay less and take on his arb number. Similarly, we know Jed's preference for prospects over paying big money, and that's a reason this may not happen. But this kinda works in reverse. If Vlad is one of only a couple big bats that may be available this deadline + offseason, and the alternatives are gonna require huge money that Jed can't/won't pay(Soto), then it may be more palatable to pay the prospect cost to get Vlad over the line and also maintain a bit more of his cherished financial flexibility.
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    The way I think of it is that Diaz restores a floor of production from the position. Cubs catchers are currently playing at a full season pace of almost -3 fWAR, even if Amaya still splits time and doesn't improve, replacing Gomes with a player of Diaz's profile is potentially a multi-win upgrade for a price far less than those typically go for at the deadline. Would I consider the catcher position solved? Not particularly, but it would no longer be a bleeding wound on the roster. But I probably wouldn't use further assets on it unless something else significant changes. I'd be okay with gambling on the odds of one or both of Amaya/Diaz having enough of an offensive turnaround to provide upside that it can be decent instead of merely 'not horrific'. Especially since the odds of a 'definitely better than Diaz' option being available basically hinge on the Blue Jays selling or some other team deciding to give up on a pre-arb catcher, which is far from a slam dunk.
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    I agree that Diaz isn't a huge prize, I'd bet on him exceeding his career line but he's a tossup to be an average hitter and the defense as you say has waxed and waned, in particular the receiving. That said, if Colorado is willing to do something very soon, I think the duration of time you'd have him may be worth pulling the trigger. Another 5-7 weeks of the current catching situation waiting for the Jays to maybe sell Jansen or some other non-obvious target (that needs to be clearly better than Diaz) to become available is a significant opportunity cost given how dire the current catching situation is. You could also argue that Diaz's likely cheaper price compared to a Jansen or a long term solution may be helpful for them to make even more productive additions closer to the deadline too. As a hypothetical, Diaz + Vlad > Jansen + this year's Candelario.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    Over 70% of Busch's minor league innings came at 2B. I doubt he's going to look particularly great there, but he wasn't as error prone as, say, Morel was as a MiLBer on the left side of the infield.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Fraley sliding in feet first on that seems both counter productive and dangerous in a dickish way. Basically the Reds whole vibe
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    Marquee's K-zone is way off, Strike 1 to Busch was like 3 inches high by their graphic and Statcast has it comfortably in the zone.
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