Transmogrified Tiger

40% K rate, but yeah, it's dire. 14 wRC+

Corey Julks is a video game NPC, let's get him out please

Iowa's PBP guy mentioned that Madrigal's came after he got hit with a 97 mph fastball, though he didn't say where. Palencia came in with 2 men on and went BB, K, BB, SF, BB, so that's not promising.

I haven't really looked, though I have two hesitations about this. One is that I don't have the same degree of confidence in the quality of the data we're seeing in the minors. We're 4-5xing the locations and putting them in places with less on hand resources and familiarity. Not even a statcast thing but the whole Iowa velocity ordeal last month is representative. I don't think they're junk, but I also think we should be careful to attribute bedrock certainty especially if the data is outside previous norms. The other is more important, in that while I understand the impulse and think you could build an interesting scale based on these, I don't think it's doing the same thing the scouting scale intends. Ultimately all of the statcast data is outcomes. More granular outcomes than counting RBI or looking at BABIP or errors, but still they are results that translate imperfectly when we have to understand expectations 2, 3, 4 levels above. Can I use Max EV to see if someone's FV on the power scale is too high? Probably, there are some guardrails that are likely useful checks. But the point of the scouting scale is to use information that is outside of outcomes/results to contextualize and evaluate how well certain things will translate when facing MLB pitchers/hitters, or at physical maturity, or when certain mechanics get another 12-36 months of pro instruction. Think of how often there are pitchers that see leaps in either raw stuff or performance when they learn new pitches, sequencing, or find a mechanical tweak that cuts down walks by making their delivery more repeatable. As metrics get better we need to lean on that part of the evaluation less, and that's a good thing. But I don't think that need for subjective evaluation vanishes entirely, or at least certainly not based on anything we have access to as the viewing public.

Hit tool isn't *really* about K rate, Caissie is a great example because he strikes out a lot but also barrels a ton of contact. He hit .290 at a higher level, so despite only having a 40 ceiling on the hit tool he's clearly further along. As for Alcantara, his batting average was not far from Ballesteros' at High A, and they only list his ceiling as a 35 so they clearly think whatever is left is more structural compared to about the level of competition, and that he's further along athletically/physically.

It sounds like your issue is more with the idea of present and future value. A guy who hits .300 at High A in most cases isn't particularly close to being a 45+ hit tool at the MLB level if you jumped over the upper minors. If they update it midseason it'll almost certainly be 30-35, maybe even 40 if they feel his step forward this year raised the FV to 55. It's just accounting for the default that prospects fail, and the massive degree in difficulty between the low minors and MLB.

They don't update those grades on a rolling basis, it's not including anything from this year. I'm sure it will be higher upon the next update now that he's demonstrated that potential ceiling at AA.

If the end result of trading for Alonso is 'when everyone is healthy and no one is being rested, either Busch or PCA are out of the lineup', I have a hard time seeing that as being a mutually exclusive situation. Part of that thinking is that you do exclude Morel from the calculus, but even as one of his longest running defensive skeptics, I think that ship has sailed for this year. The internal options have not been nearly good enough to push him to DH outside of specific matchups, and in a world where that would also push another plus hitter to the bench I think they'd be even more willing to stick it out with him. Also, Alonso has a career 133 wRC+ and Citi Field is tied with Petco for 29th in hitter friendliness, part of the motivation for pulling the trigger is you're buying at least slightly low on what you'd expect for him rest of season.

If we look at the trend lines I think Neris is moving the right direction when it comes to walks: The K's are slightly better but not where we want him, so still work to be done(though maybe related to the weak contact).

Setting aside the closer/legit debate, they do need another strong leverage reliever. Right now that circle of trust is basically Neris, Leiter Jr, and kinda Wesneski? Not good enough. Getting Almonte(who I like) back a week before the ASB, Merryweather hopefully around the deadline, and Alzolay in late 2025 around the same time doesn't change the near-term outlook. Plus the guys who might get pushed off the roster even with everyone healthy have not established themselves as guys who must stay on the roster no matter what(otherwise we wouldn't need another leverage reliever!).

Meyer went 10th overall, 3 picks before the Cubs took Shaw. White went 35th and was given the 15th highest bonus.

1. Have whatever standard you want I guess, but essentially every MLB front office, Jed included, will act differently 2. They aren't going to start selling* in mid-June so the arbitrary line being crossed at that point is irrelevant until we get on the other side of the All-Star Break or so *Passan made this point in the context of the Cubs in his early deadline preview today, but there are not obvious pieces they would sell if they disappointed. It would likely look like the last time the team 'sold', where a couple marginal relievers maybe are outgoing. The deadline increasingly is mostly rentals and relievers and rental relievers, so I think we probably put too much weight on the buy/sell concept to begin with unless a team is signaling a big shift(like the Astros might this year). The Cubs have a core for the next ~2 years and aren't going to blow it up, so it's more a question on if they're going to try to grab a couple more wins this year v. not instead of some sea change in the roster.

They are tied for a WC spot, they are not on the verge of being sellers by mid-June without a good 2 weeks.

The other facet here is how much they consider framing teachable with Counsell in tow, especially if they targeted someone who may be a multi-year solution.

1. Wait. There are no magic buttons that are going to flip the season, and most of what isn't going well is either circumstance/timing or performance from guys you aren't going to move on from anyway. 2. Seiya needs to DH whenever PCA and Bellinger are both in the lineup. Busch's defense has settled, and this is something I've anticipated might be needed going back to the 'you can't pay Bellinger $X to be a 1st baseman' debates in the offseason 3. Wait. The 2023 Cubs were 3 games worse through 60 games and 6 games out of a playoff spot. They were able to, without outside intervention, get hot enough that they collapsed in September and still missed the playoffs by a game. 4. Have a very honest conversation with yourself on what you can reasonably expect from Hendricks and Smyly the rest of the season, and how long a bullpen ravaged by injuries can reasonably sustain both of them(*IF* you are bullish enough on the alternatives) 5. Wait. This is nothing new for Counsell either. Last year's Brewers were hovering .500 and then played at a 95 win pace after Game 60. 6. Move Matt Shaw up to Iowa in the next week. He's demonstrated big progress in plate discipline and his line justifies an Iowa look to see how much his production increases outside the AA funhouse mirror. If he's 6 weeks of strong play from being a down the stretch option then I want to start that clock soon. 7. Seriously, wait.

Feels like Counsell could've sequenced the pinch hitters a bit better. Tauchman didn't need to stay in the game, so you could've sent Busch to 1B and moved Gomes back to Tauchman's spot. That would've let you go PCA-Busch instead of Busch-PCA, and if you come back you can get your defensive upgrade by leaving in PCA anyway if you like.

Mr Redlegs finishes 3rd in the great mascot race, Cubs comeback confirmed

Both Wisdom and Happ had 100 mph exit velos(well, Happ was 99.8) so while you would guess Morel's ball would be more successful they weren't exactly seeing eye singles either

He's clearly not as sharp as his last outing, but I think some bad fortune is exaggerating the magnitude. He's sawed off a different hitter in each inning that's managed to go for a hit(one of those for a double), without the 2 in the 2nd or 3rd would mean he's sitting on 0 runs.

There is one out in the bottom of the 2nd

Elly is not all that good to begin with, but he's like the anti-Albies. 5 for 40 against the Cubs with 25 Ks

I don't think anyone thought Mastrobuoni was a 'glove-first' option, but that he is playable on the IF and he provided speed and platoon advantage. Madrigal is good with the glove, even if he made a bad play at an important time recently.

Amaya starting last night and today, eh? Probably only possible with an off day tomorrow, but still noteworthy about the catching dynamic.

So assuming that Horton is down for at least a short while, the Iowa rotation is Pannone, Clarke, Straily, and.....? Hoping they bump up McGowin from Tennessee, he's been a fun story.

6 man with Brown being the guy getting bullpen innings if circumstances/off days make skipping someone practical. I would also just option Palencia, Brewer, and Thompson unless Hodge stops throwing strikes or you want to stretch out Wesneski in Iowa.