Transmogrified Tiger

The worst of it missed us to the north, but there's still a small but heavy storm system that is supposed to blow through in the vicinity of first pitch. Don't be surprised if there's a delay, but shouldn't be substantial or jeopardize whether they play today

I'm not going to claim encyclopedic memory of the before/after, so maybe I'm mistaken. But at least in terms of his sitting velo, I think by 2022 it was several ticks higher than pre-trade. That's consistent with the spike in walk rate, presumably because he couldn't command it. Not that increasing whiff wasn't a worthy or even necessary goal, but I also think there's a universe where Kilian is a more viable big league prospect because they prioritized his fastball command(at the time his carrying trait) and tinkered with his off speeds more in search of that improved swing and miss.

They also very possibly ruined Kilian by upping his velo significantly

Morel had a 114 wRC+ at the MLB level entering this year, and had a 114 wRC+ for the season less than 2 weeks ago. A lot of the dialogue around the team(and this is basically any time results go poorly) is people asking questions about certain players or the team as a whole that carry the implication 'well you can't just wait/do nothing', when the answer is that you absolutely can and should in many/most cases.

I'm not sure how much of this applies to Bayern specifically, but Managers matter about 10% as much as media and fans at large tend to believe, and this combines with a growing trend of front offices trying to consolidate roster building power by either making explicit structure changes(Slot being 'head coach' at Liverpool) or just by hiring younger/less proven managers that are more willing to take what they're given(Kompany seems like a pretty good example).

I don't think there has been a velo drop of any real magnitude, seems pretty clear from several examples from multiple pitchers at this point that Iowa's gun is not very well calibrated. Anything beyond that I'd attribute to weather moreso than any other factor.

Same guy who ejected Counsell from 100+ feet away

PCA 2 for 4 with a 2B, HR, and SB (also a K) Murray with 2 more hits and a walk too

In order of likelihood, if they're looking to shake up the position player pool, I think it's Bring back PCA (gap) Do something about the catchers (gap) Bring up Caissie (mayyyybe BJMJ if he stays on his current tear for a month) (gap) All Others (Davis, Mervis, etc)

I'd like for a little more pop from Shaw, but he's still got an above average IsoP for the Southern League, which is only around .110 league-wide. It's been a very weird year for that league.

Albies looked towards the heavens and his body rebelled, makes sense

They had a reliever throw 40+ pitches last night in a game they were losing, and it wasn't Hendricks. Someone threw the 9th in a game they were losing by 7, and it wasn't Hendricks. We're talking about him facing 9 hitters as a best case scenario, if you're that terrified of him getting rocked you have Little/Wesneski warming quickly, but you can't ignore a pitcher on your roster *and* do a bullpen game. Doubly so when you're in the early stages of 13 straight days with a game.

They don't have the luxury of carrying a 'only pitch when losing by a lot' reliever. It's a bullpen game and Hendricks and Brown are the only ones who haven't pitched this series, with Hendricks not pitching in 6 days.

Yeah I think you hope for 6 from Brown + Hendricks, give Brown two trips through the order and Hendricks 1. Maybe that pushes your luck a little bit with Brown against this lineup, depends on his pitch economy.

So what you’re saying is….cubs opponents blew two leads in the 8th inning or later

For an objective measure, ZiPS projected Madrigal for a 94 wRC+ this year, Mastrobuoni 92, Bote 82.

He is probably worse at hitting, fielding, and running.

PCA in 2 games back with Iowa: 4 for 9 w/ a HR, 2/2 K/BB, and 2 SB

Across AAA and MLB this year, Little has a 4.65 ERA and 5.53 FIP, he's struck out 1 more batter than he's walked. He has objectively not pitched well, and my posts are explaining the whys that are driving that. These are small samples, just like the samples are small of him pitching a bit better in AAA/MLB last year, and that is part of the point being made. The answer of why Little can look good is obvious, he throws upper 90s from a brutal angle for LHH and gets like 30 feet of extension due to being part redwood. The answer of why Little has been less good is what I'm saying, that he's going to look great sometimes and horrible some others. It is not that Little's 2024 line is what you expect of him going forward, or that he's hopeless to ever sort out these problems. But these are the problems that have existed with his profile the whole time, it's why he got quickly moved to the pen, it's why his run prevention was merely 'good' in AA despite striking out 16 per 9, and it's why he's struggling with consistency at the high minors/MLB level now. You've created this fiction in your head that this skepticism is writing him off as useless and representative of demanding finished products of young players the moment they hit MLB. Not only is that obvious nonsense, it leads to a much less interesting conversation than actually talking about the player and performance involved.

I mean, who is talking about kicking Little to the curb? We can be clear eyed about his prognosis and hopeful that he bucks the trend while not trying to ship him out of town or make him into something he's not, no? Players with Little's build have been extremely rare, partially because they are at the tail end of the demographic curve, but also because especially players of that height have historically had the same problem of repeating mechanics and therefore not having sufficient control/command. Yes, Little has age on his side and I'm not saying he absolutely cannot find a way through. But he was also around a 15% walk rate in AA and AAA so the fact that his MLB time has been more of the same(now with more hard contact from better hitters) is a continuation of his progression and not a new bump in the road.

You can't have sufficient swing and miss to be a good bullpen arm without risking some walks, the only way to avoid that is if your stuff is so superhuman that you get a ton of in-zone whiff which only a handful of guys can pull off. That said, there are degrees to this. Little can be extremely hard to barrel, but major leaguers are good and if you give them repeated hitter's counts with uncompetitive pitches, you start to get burned even if you can steer the ball back in the zone. And that's the thing with Little, it's not necessarily the walk count, it's that the walks are representative of inconsistency in his mechanics that lead to him having basically zero command. The problem I see is that mechanical inconsistency is probably a function of him being an enormous person, and he doesn't have the athleticism to repeat in the way he'll have to. So in outings where he stays in and near the zone will look like last night, and then we'll flip the coin next time to see if he's that version or the one who can walk the bases loaded(or give up 2-0 line drives) in the blink of an eye.

Welcome!

NO LESS THAN YOU DESERVE, OZZIE

Saw this mentioned a couple places on Twitter, but Kyle is 5-6 weeks away from hitting 10 years of service time, which is a pretty important marker for a lot of players. If they are thinking about demoting or releasing him in his current state, I wouldn't be surprised if they make every effort to get him to that line, and this decision is probably along that path.