Transmogrified Tiger

In the last week they've averaged over 4 runs per game, scored 6+ runs 3 times, and scored less than 3 runs once.

Probably the conditions/delay, but Greene is 3 mph below his norm with the fastball, he's not good enough to survive that if it continues

He's 41, has lost a tick off his fastball this year, and has a 4.46 playoff ERA since the pandemic. The version of Verlander you associate with postseason dominance doesn't exist anymore.

Welcome!

Sharing this not because I thought Madrigal was the right call there(I think you've gotta give Wisdom a chance to slug given the circumstances), but because I am genuinely shocked that these are the numbers for this year

I think it may have caught his hand simultaneous to the bat, but not enough to overturn I'm guessing

Steele and Brown have not, Assad, Taillon, Shoto, and Wicks have

that...didn't look close to a swing from Happ either? Same with the 2nd one????

what are we doing here he was obviously out in real time

2-0 pitch has to be called a strike, probably cost them the run

Awfully smug reaction from Benson when you're hitting as bad as him and you couldn't get the ball out of the shallowest alleys in the game

I'm hopeful for Happ to get back to the top of the lineup pretty soon in his stead, though to an extent I understand Tauchman fitting better at the top than 5/6 given PCA is at the bottom and you want to stagger LHH

The throws have gotten more consistent, if not perfect, which is good because that's been the most persistent problem. The other issue that's shown up more recently for me is just not fielding balls within his physical footprint, I've seen several (hard hit) ground balls he tries to react to but ended up between his feet and arms. These aren't 1 star plays by any stretch, but more underscores that there's probably not any one thing defensively he does *well*, which makes it really hard to get to average if he has stretches of struggling with throws.

Of all the criticisms to lob Jed's way, bemoaning a couple fringe relievers getting hot for 2 months as a systemic failure is not high on the list. This is a thing that happens to every team and is the nature of relievers, especially in our current pitching dev environment. You won't bat 1.000, seen through the fact that both Megill and Hudson had other stops at progressive/successful orgs that didn't unlock them before the Brewers, and the same way that the Cubs have successes of their own via this avenue.

Trevor Megill was 27 when he was let go by the Cubs, had a 5.14 ERA in 14 AAA IP and 8.37 ERA in 23 MLB IP. Then he went to Minnesota, gained 2 mph on his fastball, and was bad (though unlucky) for them in 45 MLB IP, *then* he came to Milwaukee and has had 14 excellent innings. Crystal ball indeed. Estrada there can be a little bit more hand wringing about, but across 39 AAA and MLB innings last year, he walked 39 batters and gave up 12 home runs. The relievers that were rostered in his stead were Arias and Hodge, both who have plenty of stuff themselves. Sometimes a reliever goes to another org and gets hot, or learns a new pitch, or both in Estrada's case.

I'm still thinking through how I feel about the likely catching options. Jansen can absolutely hit and seems a decent framer, but would be more of the same in the running game. Diaz can definitely help with the running game, but his ZiPS ROS is basically the same as Amaya(which admittedly may be optimistic) and his framing has been horrific over his career. The goldilocks option I'm keeping an eye on is Jake Rogers in Detroit. Pop times like Diaz, a positive framer, and I'd estimate his bat is the best bet outside Jansen to be league average. Might not be available, especially if he catches fire with the bat, but he is a 30 year old C in arb and the Tigers have a Top 10 org prospect at AAA so I can hold out a little hope.

By any reasonable definition of 'tanking', the only player on a multi-year deal that would qualify at the moment is Swanson, and he also has battled injury and has a long track record of consistency while only being 30. If the team plays like they have for the last several weeks indefinitely, they'll be quite bad and be in an uncomfortable place. There's no indication that's likely though. They've earned their full-season record to date, though there's reason to think that's below their true talent level. At this stage in the season, the difference between a 75 win pace and a 90 win pace is a handful of games that randomness is going to play a large role in influencing. I don't want to imply there's zero things to worry about though, while I don't at all believe the team is screwed for the near term, these are the things I'm concerned about: The Catching position, today aside I'm not worried about Amaya as a receiver, but the bat and running game control haven't been good enough, especially since he's had to carry Gomes being a large negative everywhere but game calling. The options on the market aren't ideal, and making a change at that position carries a risk for the pitching staff's success in the way that other positions don't. Morel. He doesn't look like an MLB 3B, and while I'm not concerned about his current batting line, the team is likely to look to upgrade the offense, and if they're adding players who push other good hitters to DH, I'd be concerned about the whole being less than the sum of the parts in terms of how that lineup can be deployed. (or maybe injuries make us appreciate that depth if we get it?) The in-house pen options. Alzolay's arm exploding, along with none of Palencia, Little, Cuas, and Thompson taking a step forward, really puts pressure on the more proven arms. If Wicks comes back strong maybe Brown helps with that, and supplementing at the trade deadline is among the easier changes you can make, but now is the time for someone already in the org to stake their claim by throwing enough strikes(looking at you: Palencia/Little/Hodge) so we aren't trying to juggle 3 relievers in the circle of trust all year.

The opposite, actually, he's been steadily improving and has been producing at a decent rate for a good bit

pretty excited to see how the Brewers manage to get the lead back, my money is on a chopper hits a low flying bird to deflect down the line for a leadoff triple

They are Bottom 10 in MLB in wRC+ at 3 positions, Top 10 in MLB at 3 positions, and therefore Middle 10 in MLB at 3 positions.

Michael you have to know better, hitting the ball hard does not get rewarded today, only bloops on getaway day

Tauchman also struck out while Happ hit it 100 mph with an xBA near .600

I think it's a fair criticism and potential downside of Jed's roster building approach, but I also don't want to overstate the fungibility of those stars. Swanson was 25th in ZiPS preseason hitter WAR, and 16 of the guys ahead of them are pre-FA or otherwise with the team that developed them. And below Swanson in that list are a number of hitters that previously have been thought of as 'stars' in that vein when they hit they were available and the shine is off or we're far enough down the long term deal that it's an afterthought while their salary is not.

The point is those are very different pathways. Developing pitching from within is obviously important, that's what the Brewers did with Hader and Williams, and also had positive knock on effects by being able to maximize lesser pitchers in lower leverage. Of recent Cubs vintage, Alzolay is the biggest Cubs success in that regard, and only for part of a season. Until very recently that was the toll being paid for not developing pitchers, why McLeod didn't survive the front office shake up, etc. Their improvements in that regard are starting to bear fruit, having already gotten 30+ excellent pen innings from Brown and Wesneski. Unlocking something new in a mid-20s RP on his 2nd, 3rd, 4th organization is a different roster building pathway, that's what Hudson and Megill are, and what I'm talking about as a thing that happens in both directions to lots of teams. There's little indication the Cubs are net negative in that pathway, especially when talking about forward-facing given how recently they've turned Leiter Jr and Merryweather into relief aces, have had tentative success with Almonte and Miller, etc.

Come on, being able to find unexpected performances on the fringes of the roster is not the primary reason those teams are at the top of reliever WAR. It's especially galling to use this argument in comparison to the Brewers, Hader and Williams were 60% of their reliever WAR since 2018 despite throwing 13% of the innings.