Transmogrified Tiger

I'll be extremely surprised if someone fires Gulati's ass too. House needs to be cleaned. I thought Gulati has an elected position? Or am I misremembering?

Chris Archer is likely to cost more than Chris Sale For my money, I'm still really hoping that Teheran or Odorizzi are possibilities. Could/should be available and without really emptying the farm, 4 years of team control through their prime, past the injury nexus and have shown an ability to take a major league workload, and repertoires where you can dream on some improvement with Bosio's impact.

What's the market for a guy like Soler at this point? He'll be 25 on opening day. The stats are improving, his walk rate is up, his swing percentages are better, and he's hitting more fly balls (and more HRs). But his health is a concern, his defense is a concern, and he still strikes out 1/4 of his PAs (better than 30% last year, but still). For $3M in 2017 and $4M/year after that, any chance he's actually more valuable to the Cubs than whatever pitching they can get for him? Soler has incredible power and for the last year plus has been an averageish player on the whole, so anyone who likes his profile enough to trade for him is going to dream that power gets more realized with consistent PT plus entering his prime years. 4 years of a player you think is average with potential to be Edwin Encarnacion is worth a fair bit, even at arbitration salaries. That doesn't mean he's worth that to everyone though, other teams see that he isn't playing every day and is shielded a bit, and the leg injuries are certainly cause for concern. As it relates to the Cubs, in a world where Fowler is signed, Soler is basically a platoon player/injury replacement, and one that needs to be more appealing than both Baez and Almora to get playing time. There's opportunity for him but it's not a substantial one, so as long as they can find a way to find one team optimistic on his future, as long as that team can be used to further their other goals I'd put good odds on him being traded. Again though, this assumes Fowler back in the fold, without him there's more opportunity and more uncertainty on the whole.

I'd agree that packaging Soler and Almora for pitching if you bring back Fowler is the best case scenario. Kinda tough to do in a 1 for 1 deal since they're both OF so maybe you need to get creative, but if you've got Fowler back then I think you have a good chance to sell high on Almora since I'd bet the front office is pessimistic on him being more than a role player/averagish starter. That means you also need to bring in another version of Coghlan(maybe even Coghlan himself), but that's a role I'd have a lot of confidence in the FO's ability to fill, especially since there's some decent options around.

losing to Mexico at home and then winning @ Costa Rica would be a very Jurgen thing to do, so let's do that

JJ Cooper points out that Otani would be subject to International bonus pools if posted this offseason(because he's under 23 and has < 5 years pro experience), which should seemingly kill any lingering hope of him being in MLB in 2017: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/pool-rules-will-keep-otani-coming-u-s/#UYICFy5xjWxwo9yT.97

[tweet] [/tweet]

Hellickson is still young enough that postponing FA by a year or so won't change much, so if you think last year wasn't a huge aberration(and after you consider AL to NL movement it's not all that out of line with his career), then taking the QO is the right move. If he backs it up this year he'll get a better deal at 31 than he would this year at 30, and the 17 million up front is a nice buffer even if he doesn't.

Hellickson accepted the QO.

I haven't given a ton of thought to this but Eloy and Happ are 1 and 2 with a bullet. I'm not all that high on Cease but there's also a dearth of players to really claim spots after Happ too. I will probably continue my Ryan Williams crusade by putting him way higher than most everyone else.

oh okay

The AFC West is 19-7 when they aren't playing each other, if my counting is right. I wonder what the record for a season in the 8-division era is.

Man, I kinda think that Houston deal is terrible. Paulino looks a really good prospect but he's got 20 innings above A ball, and Feliz only has this year with the awesome peripherals and even then he still wasn't very good at run prevention. I mean maybe that's what it would take to get those two, but those two are not particularly good fits for the Cubs' primary needs. I still can't come up with an exact series of moves I really like, mainly because I can't seem to find a SP deal that I like and is feasible without Baez(nor is there a great Baez replacement). But in the spirit of not dumping on the above and not offering anything of my own: - Jansen 5/100 - Fowler 4/65 - Soler, Almora, Villanueva for Manaea - Sign a LH reserve OF, Coghlan, Blanco, Joyce, and Jay are all options of varying quality Fowler/Bryant/Rizzo/Zobrist/Schwarber/Russell/Contreras/Heyward (Montero/Baez/Candelario/FA/Szczur) Lester/Hendricks/Arrieta/Manaea/Lackey Jansen/Strop/Edwards/Rondon/Grimm/Montgomery/Zastryzny(or other LOOGY) Like I said, not my favorite sequence by any stretch, but that team wins a lot of games too.

The Cubs also intend to win a bunch of games next year. Even if you plan on Arrieta being the worst version of himself next year, that's still pretty averageish, and you can't get averageish with the chance of better for Arrieta's cost on the FA market, meaning you're looking at trading for probably 2 different SP this offseason. And to what end? Teams would give up more than a comp pick in value, but they saw Jake struggle last year too, and he's 31 and a year from FA so there's no ransom coming back either.

We can't know definitively because the new CBA could change the luxury tax threshold or even eliminate it entirely. The tax currently goes into effect at 189 million and taxes amounts over 189M at 17.5% the first time you exceed it, with that percentage growing to 30%, 40%, and 50% with each successive season over the threshold. Right now if you include arbitration estimates the Cubs payroll is just over 140 million for a full roster. With that in mind, I think the luxury tax is a decent proxy for what the team can probably spend. It'd represent a 10% or so increase over last year's actual payroll, and while I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it go beyond that, I can understand there might be some hesitancy to do so if all of a sudden there's more teeth added to the tax in the new CBA.

While I agree that a deal for Gray would be far outside the MO for our group, they've also said that at some stage they'll have to make a few moves that are uncomfortable. I think there's a distinction between uncomfortable and out of character. Uncomfortable is trading more than you want to get a guy you really like(for me this would be Teheran, Quintana, or Odorizzi), or trading for a guy who doesn't check every box because the opportunity is there(for me this might be Manaea, Bradley, or even Bauer). It doesn't have to mean trading for a guy who is probably more likely than not to need arm surgery at this point, especially when he would cost more than scraps in return.

I think the Cubs place a lot of value on health when it comes to pitchers, and it's part of the reason that they've been able to keep their rotation so healthy. That doesn't mean they won't trade for someone with potential health risks, but someone who missed a bunch of time with a forearm injury and had their command leave them before the injury is an enormous red flag if you're giving up a package of any real value.

The Rays line up so very well for the Cubs to trade with, they have arms of pretty much every profile that you could want. Ace potential? Archer. Controllable and past the injury nexus with room to be better? Odorizzi. Buy-low LHP who controls contact the way the Cubs like? Smyly. Relief ace? Colome. The problem is that there is a reason that the Rays haven't made any trades from that pitching depth, and it's that their valuation of those pitchers has bordered on the absurd. Maybe this is the offseason where they re-evaluate and pull the trigger, it's definitely a possibility. The problem is I don't think the Rays are going to be quick on the trigger finger to do so, and if we've learned nothing else about the Cubs under Theo, it's that they very much prefer 'fast and done' to 'perfect' when it comes to trading for players.

I don't hold any illusions the US deserved a result, but it just galls me to see that Mexican hackery get rewarded when they were under siege for 30 minutes.

that was Marquez throwing the block there at the final whistle wasn't it

shoulda tackled Marquez I guess

tell me why that isn't a straight red for Salcedo

What's the alternative, Bedoya and Williams? Also thank goodness for an early equalizer

Partially because another team has to have a need/want for Candelario. The intersection of teams with interesting controlled pitching that they might trade and teams with an interest in a MLB-ready 3B prospect isn't a large one. Just to use your examples, Longoria(plus Duffy) and Lamb would be two big reasons that Candelario wouldn't hold as much interest as a secondary piece. This is the downside of hoarding hitters, they hold their value better, but in some cases they can be less liquid an asset.