Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Toronto/Montreal already a great game, 2-1 Toronto at half, and they lead on away goals 4-4 aggregate. 2nd half should be real good viewing on FS1.
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[tweet] [/tweet] FROM THE KEEPER
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Last year's opening day payroll got boosted by a fair bit with the additions of Coghlan, Chapman, and Smith(roughly 11 million in dollars paid). The team also drew 300k more than last year and had 8 postseason home games and a World Series win. Last year's opening day payroll isn't likely to be a hard cap, and even if it were, there's really not much else to spend on in terms of holes to fill or in terms of players available for money.
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[tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet]
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I probably like this more than most and more than I should. Jay is a nice complement to Almora, and the best part is that even if Almora fails he'll have to earn his playing time because Heyward can slide to CF with Baez(via Bryant/Zobrist) filling in instead. This is the Coghlan roster spot for a new year where we have Schwarber but not Fowler. It was probably possible to find a higher upside or better option on the trade market, but that costs stuff and you also gain some certainty by moving fast and leaving the speculative stuff for higher impact moves.
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Rosenthal: Cespedes re-signs with the Mets
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I'm biased against him, but don't really see the appeal. He was never a high ceiling prospect, and his numbers so far paint the picture of a guy getting figured out. For example: Conforto v. RHP Thru April 2016: 252 PA, .306/.377/.595, .405 wOBA, 10% BB%, 20% K% After April 2016: 222 PA, .196/.293/.376, .292 wOBA, 11% BB%, 27% K% He's been heavily shielded against LHP too, and for good reason(68 PA, .336 OPS, .190 wOBA). I look at Conforto and I see Chris Coghlan(I don't think Conforto is anything but an emergency CF). That has its uses, but for the 2017 Cubs I'd rather just sign Chris Coghlan. -
Rosenthal: Cespedes re-signs with the Mets
Transmogrified Tiger replied to UMFan83's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The answer to the question "who is the 2nd best hitter on the Mets?" tells you all you need to know about the Mets. -
Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Tigers need to lower payroll, but most of their high paid players are necessary pieces. Trading Verlander's contract, saving 12 mil this year while getting a pitcher of similar caliber is a big win for them. It's less clear what the point would be for the Cubs, Verlander's age 35 and 36 seasons at 2/56 don't have much upside. Having a guy under contract past 2017 doesn't mean a ton when he'll be nearing the end of his career and he's super expensive on top of that. I mean, why not just pay Rich Hill his money at that point? -
[tweet]https://twitter.com/megrowler/status/803420368765472768[/tweet]
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that's better, baseball [tweet] [/tweet] [tweet] [/tweet]
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Hatch can be traded. They changed that rule a couple years ago after Trea Turner. Draftees can now be traded after the World Series. I had a feeling I might've been wrong a few minutes after I posted that and was too lazy to look it up. Thanks for clarifying! Almora/Bauer is a framework that definitely could make sense. The complicating factor is Zimmer, he's too good to ignore and spend real assets to block, but that K rate and AAA performance is frightening. He does hit LH though so at the least you have platoon possibilities, plus the other OF spots are far from bolted down.
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In the absolute sense, Clifton at 3 isn't really bold at all. Cease doesn't throw strikes, hasn't reached full season ball, and has already had TJS. Candelario goes months looking like a AA washout. Clifton is age appropriate and improved at nearly every objective measure while heaving good enough stuff to be a MLB starter. Clifton over Happ seems more than a bit silly though.
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[tweet] [/tweet] don't do this to me baseball, I need this
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Both teams probably recoil from that deal. The Tigers had one of the best offenses in baseball last year and a horrific pitching staff, they aren't going to trade one of the few young/cheap bright spots they have when the rest of their offseason will be about dropping some payroll and adding pitching. The Cubs are selling the farm and Rondon on top of that to get Norris(a fine target but one with < 140 MLB IP to his name), and two sub-AA pitching prospects. Also Hatch can't be traded yet.
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Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Good job by that blog post for embedding the NLCS grand slam. My favorite broadcast call of the playoffs. Bad job by that blog post not making the incredibly easy logical step to make Montero a part of a larger deal that has already been rumored for Odorizzi or Archer. If Montero lowers the cost for Odorizzi or Archer, even if they have to pay some or all of his salary, that's great. There's not an easy fix to replace Montero, but that's a simpler problem to solve than getting a controllable SP. -
Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Sox more than maybe any other team have to be mindful of the damage they do to fan perception, that's a big part of why they futilely kept trying to string together 85 wins the last few years. With that in mind I get it, a rebuild is a big enough blow and to see their best player playing on the best team in baseball across town would be a big blow. I imagine that it's not true though, and even if it was it'd probably be a moot point since the Cubs aren't going to trade what's needed to get Sale. -
General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
The WBC might be dead after the 2017 edition. [tweet] [/tweet] -
I think it's more like 43-45? IIRC we projected for something like 93 from ZiPS last year, if I have time later I'll try to track it down. Doesn't change the point though, *projecting* for 90 wins is pretty crazy, projecting for several wins past that is definitely absurd.
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Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The real question is whether Theo wants to push Javy plus the rest of our farm system. I think it's more likely he tries to trade Soler for a slightly better version of Montgomery. Agreed. I've been talking myself into a deal for someone like Odorizzi or Bauer if they can avoid touching anyone better than Soler from the MLB team(and Eloy from the farm). Although they might be more willing to gamble on health if they're only giving up a Soler caliber lead piece, at which point names like Smyly, Manaea, or someone from Arizona(Ray? Corbin?) come into play. -
best Jordan flu game ever imo
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Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Schwarber isn't a terribly unreasonable ask if we're talking about Archer, but not one that's going to happen. -
Cubs offseason thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Here's the thing about Blackmon that confuses me, he's 3 months younger than Fowler. Everything then becomes a point of comparison in that light. Blackmon doesn't have a pre-FA deal so you're basically trading for him on a 2/22 deal or so if MLBTR's estimates are to believed. Is the trade cost worth it when you can give Fowler 4 years instead? Blackmon doesn't really fit the front office's MO at the top of the order with his walk rate either. That said, the Rockies look like they have decent options pretty much everywhere and OF is where they have the most depth(unless you include the rotation, which no not really especially for the Rockies). I wonder if they'd be interested in Rondon? His repertoire would work better than the average reliever in Coors, and they sure aren't going to buy a closer of his caliber. Other potential Rockies matches might be Almora to serve as a platoon partner/hedge for any of Tapia, Dahl, or Blackmon. I'm a little fascinated by Gerardo Parra myself, I wonder what caused his defense to collapse outside Arizona(the fact that they'd probably give away his contract is the large part of the appeal). And if you're making a deal that the Rockies need to add more to, I like the cut of Carlos Estevez's jib. -
[tweet]https://twitter.com/tomfornelli/status/802726832521052160[/tweet]
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Montero has very little trade value with his contract, so trading him either nets you no savings, no real return, or both. Montero hit very well once he made his David Ortiz swing change, September + postseason: .258/.317/.476/.783 Montero is a great framer and game caller. Montero is a left handed hitter, a relative rarity that makes pairing with a RH starting C easier. There are no obvious good backup C candidates in FA. Montero does have problems with base stealers, costing 10 baserunners from average over 66 attempts. He also spends a disproportionate amount of time catching Arrieta though. If that's the only flaw, I'm not seeing much motivation to try and displace him given the benefits he brings and the lack of benefits in getting rid of him. If they end up making a big trade and a backup C comes in the return then maybe, but that's something that's driven by circumstance more than a dedicated search for a new backup.
