Transmogrified Tiger

Did they? They made it a point to remind they hadn't spent the Tanaka money, during that offsesson. So we knew they wanted to grab Lester. And they were mentioned with Heyward and Price and guys last year too. I'm taking them at face value, since they've been as upfront about stuff as you could possibly be. That's why Jed's comments don't sound great to me. Yes, every year you'll see reminders from the front office that they aren't going nuts in free agency, and that they shouldn't have tunnel vision on [popular FA target]. It's partially a reminder to overzealous fans who just want to buy all the things, and also hedging their bets in case things go south with a particular player. I don't think Jed says anything wrong there, but I also think the Cubs should be more motivated to pay the certainty premium for Jansen/Chapman given the state of the rest of the bullpen. Sure, adding a couple interesting arms and hoping one rises to the top isn't a terrible strategy, and might prove more ideal in practice if one works out real well. It also carries the risk of the bullpen undermining a championship contending season, just like the 2016 Giants.

Maybe they don't spend much this offseason, but didn't they make similar cautions the last 2 years? They've shown they can handle a payroll north of 170m even before the world series windfall, and they're under 150 now with very few roster spots to fill.

think of the scarecrow/halloween crossovers with Sale in the playoffs though

lol at "any two minor league pitchers not named Dylan Cease" that's like saying you can take any penny you want from the find a penny/take a penny tray

The only worthy way to win is to develop all your 10th rounders into superstars that you sign to early extensions and win with a 50 million payroll and no free agents. Unless you could've spent more then you're tanking until you're good, or something, my mental gymnastics are rusty.

The best point I've seen made is that Jansen didn't start pitching until like 22 years old. At 17 Chapman was pitching in major Cuban tournaments. Lot more wear on the arm of Chapman, who absolutely has to have that 100+ MPH heater to be an elite reliever. The thing about Chapman's velocity is that it's so ridiculous that he can lose a tick and still be really good. Chapman led pitchers in fastball velocity by 2.4 mph, that's the same as the gap between 2nd and 29th. I know some people will think of Game 7 and get apprehensive, but I don't think that's a fair representation of Chapman because he was missing command as much as velocity. He also has only thrown 840 innings as a pro since he was 17 in Cuba, so while his arm isn't Jansen fresh(500 IP!), I don't think there's much risk of past workload weighing him down.

Seriously. No takebacks. so 17M and the loss of a first round pick for a guy who is going to throw 65 innings. Yeah, not even remotely interested. I'd much rather the farm be used, outside of Eloy, to grab a young closer. Save the excessive spending for Otani or whoever else they need to fill the rotation in 2018. These are not either/or propositions(paying a closer and getting a future FA SP), trade prices for good young closers are going to skyrocket like the FA costs, and the Cubs should be placing a higher value on the certainty that a Jansen or Chapman provide given their spot on the win curve and the fact that half their good relievers broke in September.

Jansen for 5/85 please and thank you no changing your mind he's ours and no one elses

I don't think they'll trade him, he established too high of a baseline, and in the immediate term you not only need to replace his at bats but make sure you have a capable SS since there wouldn't be any others on the roster(and none on the way with Torres gone). But if they were able to make a terrific deal involving him I don't think they'd truly shy away from it either, because it's also possible that while the baseline is high, that 2016 Baez is as close to as good as it will get.

congrats to Scherzer on his Cy Young

That slash line with the K/BB rates are horsefeathering terrible regardless of defense and base running Good thing he a) has the ability to improve and b) provides immense value elsewhere to offset his growing pains even with that slash line. Here's a visual that might be interesting. Against LHP this year Baez's wOBA + defense was roughly equivalent to having Ian Kinsler(a near 6 win player) in the lineup. Against RHP this year Baez's wOBA + defense was roughly equivalent to having Darwin Barney(a 1.5 win player) in the lineup. Could the Cubs deal with a slightly below average player at 2B against RHP to be a defensive specialist with the potential for more offensive production? Almost certainly. And I certainly expect Baez to get his share of at bats against RHP, if only because he's the primary backup at SS and 3B so any Russell/Bryant days off or any injury to Russell/Bryant/Zobrist means Javy in the lineup every day. The other side is that no one has keener insight into how likely Javy is to make the necessary improvements than the Cubs, and we also know that the Cubs place a ton of value in approach at the plate. To illustrate, only about 40% of MLB hitters have a BB% of 9+, but Baez(3.3%) and Almora(4.3%) were the only Cubs(min 100 PA) out of 15 to miss that mark. So unlike, say, Soler, even if Baez improves he's still not the archetype the Cubs are hoping for, so they might be more pessimistic(and therefore more likely to trade him or plan on him not improving) than us.

Russell is also a Boras client.

I'm having trouble understanding your first paragraph, is that talking about Zobrist or Reddick? More to the point, if they trade two outfielders then yes they'll probably want to add one. I'd put good odds against that happening though. Not sure what's difficult about it? It's clearly talking about both. The first half is talking about Zobrist, and the 2nd refers to the presence of Reddick making it feasible to give Ben days off. Of course, I wrote the sentence, so it could just be that what's clear to me isn't always clear to others. Believe me, wouldn't be the first time. The playing time stuff had the tenor of talking about Reddick and him not being an every day player, but the positions matched up to Zobrist. When you clarified to goony above I got it sorted out. To stay on the topic, 2B and the OF will combine for 2800 or so PA, of which 1800 are very likely to come from Schwarber, Zobrist, and Heyward. The remaining 1000 need to come from Baez, Soler, Almora, and whoever is playing the Szczur/Coghlan role next year. You can get rid of one of those candidates for 1000 and still be more than fine to cover it capably, but if you're getting rid of two then you need either both a Szczur and a Coghlan or more of a starting OF(hey, Dexter Fowler is available!).

I'm having trouble understanding your first paragraph, is that talking about Zobrist or Reddick? More to the point, if they trade two outfielders then yes they'll probably want to add one. I'd put good odds against that happening though.

For those who were interested in Greg Holland: [tweet] [/tweet] That's the velocity he was at in the last few outings before his arm exploded, if not a bit lower. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=7196&position=P&pitch=FA

I'm sure winning the World Series takes the sting out of being benched because you're the third worst catcher on the team, but it doesn't seem to make sense to keep him anyway at his salary next year. Think they trade him for a lottery ticket prospect and sign or acquire another vet catcher? I do believe Geovany Soto is a free agent........ This has been discussed in like 5 different threads now. Montero was drunk and said things he wouldn't have said otherwise. He isn't going anywhere, no one is taking on his salary anyway, and he's more than fine as a backup to Contreras.

He hit .258/.288/.401 with 4 BB and 83 K against RHP in a season where he was protected against elite RHP, he either needs to get better against them or not be considered an everyday starter against RHP. I guess I see the improvements and adjustments he's made from year to year and have a lot of confidence he can improve those numbers given consistent time. He can, and it's a good enough argument for me not to want a Reddick or similar caliber player added to the corner OF, but for a team with the Cubs aspirations, Baez getting 400 PA against RHP shouldn't be plan A. Doesn't mean that you need to add external players to keep him from getting any chance at them, but we also have to be realistic that the reasons for Baez's struggles against RHP aren't mysterious and are more likely to be structural than curable. There's space between structural and curable for him to be 'good enough', but that takes a lot of time against RHP that the Cubs might not be in position to give.

I really hope Baez playing every day next year isn't plan A for us. He still needs to be very much protected vs RHP. I know health/others performance don't always allow it but he should really only be getting about ~400 PAs and 120 starts next year. How protected does he really need to be vs. non-elite RHP? He hit .258/.288/.401 with 4 BB and 83 K against RHP in a season where he was protected against elite RHP, he either needs to get better against them or not be considered an everyday starter against RHP.

Chapman cannot be given a QO because he was traded midseason.

Well looks like they will offer the QO, but the perception last year was that hurt his offers. Either he improved his standing enough that the QO will be meaningless to his suitors, or there is some interest in bringing him back. Last year's OF market was way better too: Heyward, Upton, Cespedes, Gordon, even Span to go along with Fowler. This year it's Cespedes, Fowler, Desmond, and I guess Reddick.

Different levels of compensation picks went away in the last CBA. If you give someone a qualifying offer(this year it's 1/17) and they sign elsewhere, you get a pick after the first round. Chapman isn't eligible to receive a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason, and Hammel won't be given a qualifying offer because he'd accept, so the Cubs will get one pick for Fowler signing elsewhere.

Color me very surprised. The farm could use a nice influx of talent. You're surprised they offered Fowler a QO? They did last year and then he was even better in 2016.

If I'm understanding you, clicking either of these orange icons will do that:

good grief Toronto, they're already dead