Transmogrified Tiger

The pre-'15 and pre-'16 pen had healthy and productive Rondon and Strop to anchor it. If that were the case for the pre-'17 pen I'd have far less tunnel vision about Chapman/Jansen. Also if there were other ways to conceivably spend for impact talent, but that's a bit beside the point.

I liked Dunn a ton as a trade target last winter, but he missed time with a forearm injury and looks pretty high risk. To be honest though, the only way I'd want to spend real money on a LHRP is if they fail to sign Chapman or add a SP(meaning Montgomery to the rotation), which isn't an outcome I find all that likely. This FO's history says they don't put a lot of emphasis/dollars on that spot in the bullpen either, so I don't think it's something we'll see unless it's a guy that has the real chance to be more than a LOOGY. All that said, I bet you could get Justin Wilson for little more than his contract at this point, I like him as a bounceback guy.

Singleton was never a Top 25 prospect, so no, not close.

I think this really illustrates the misunderstanding of the scale that relievers operate on. I'd give Chapman something absurd like 6/180 before I considered Cecil at 7-8 million. Chapman and Jansen are cheat codes and have proven themselves far more immune to the volatility that suppresses reliever cost than Cecil.

The name that I circled back to today was Bauer. I think there's a lot to like with him, AL to NL transition, no platoon split, he's a bright guy/Driveline client, he's proven a level of durability but still has 4 years of control, he's very good the first 2 times through the order but still faced the 3rd a lot so Maddon could conceivably have a positive influence on end results, and most importantly, as a clear 4th in the pecking order with reasonable in house options behind him, he could pretty easily be available to help Cleveland fill other needs. The good news is that Soler and Almora are both potential fits there, but neither is a snug enough fit to make me certain that they'd uproot an existing SP(especially with Carrasco and Salazar's injuries) to get them. But that's really the case with every option unless they're gambling on someone with downright poor performance.

This is a one off idea that will never happen for a few reasons, but it fascinates me as a challenge trade for both teams: Rondon for David Robertson The Cubs could use a little more certainty in their pen after Rondon and Strop came apart a little down the stretch, and especially if they don't sign Fowler, they'll likely have more money than they have holes they can fix with money. Robertson had a down year but his struggles line up pretty well with a (non-arm) injury and he finished the season strong. The Sox, if they're planning on being competitive in 2017 or even 2018 could use some more money at their disposal, and Rondon gives them a chance to win/win because when he's good he's even better than Robertson at a lower cost. So at the simplest level, the Sox save money to take on more risk and ceiling, and the Cubs take on more money to limit upside and downside in the back of their pen.

Eovaldi is supposed to be out all of 2017 with TJS and is only one year from free agency, so you'd need to either sign him to a minor league deal or work out some multi-year/option contract.

Why does that matter? If anything, it just means you'd have him for 6 seasons and may not have to worry about ever giving him a multi- year deal. He throws hard and K's a bunch of guys. I'll be extremely surprised if he's not added by someone. Because having team control of a run of the mill bullpen prospect means less when he's going to start losing velocity halfway through that team control. Rivero is no different than any of the guys the Cubs play waiver roulette with every November, except the Cubs have been working with him for years and don't think he's worthy.

Rivero turns 29 before opening day.

Soler for a pitcher who split the year between the NWL and Midwest league is an unequivocally bad idea. Complete non-starter.

Contract crowdsourcing had 4/49 as Reddick's average and 4/56 as the median, compared to 4/62 and 4/64 respectively for Fowler. Maybe it ups the total a couple million, but I don't think this is much of a departure from expectations.

Seems like close to a wash in aggregate, you gain a MLB salary for 5 months at the expense of a handful of guys for 1 month. Plus you make September baseball a better approximation of the real thing.

You think they're giving up on AJ Reed already? Well Reed had a .530 OPS with a 34% K rate in his MLB time this year, so I think a team planning on competing probably wants to have a contingency if he ends up being a AAAA slugger(Gurriel is no sure thing himself either). This year's Cubs clearly illustrate that too many players for spots is pretty much a myth, so as long as they aren't doing anything silly like putting Bregman at 1B, they're probably fine.

There's a causation at play here. Scherzer had about 80 more PA the 3rd time through the order and 12 more IP in innings 7 through 9 because Hendricks was only selectively allowed to face those situations, maximizing his odds for success. Think of Game 7 for an extreme example, Hendricks was pulled before the heart of the order got a 3rd crack at him because the game was in the balance. Or in the regular season he might only start the 7th inning if he were facing the bottom half of the order. That said, you can assume replacement level pitching to fill in that innings gap and Hendricks still has a compelling argument, but it's not unfair to credit Scherzer for having thrown those innings, lessened the impact on a bullpen, etc.

I'll preface this with the thought that there's like a -15% chance of Jake getting traded. But on the chance that I'm wrong you want to trade him: - to a team with a young SP that has promise but isn't an anchor of the rotation - to a team planning on contending ASAP and could use another high end SP - preferably to a team with the financial resources to entertain the thought of extending/re-signing him - preferably to a team in the AL, partially to avoid enriching the competition but mostly to get the league benefit from the pitcher you have coming back To me there's one ideal match, and that's the Red Sox and Rodriguez, which further illustrates the impossibility of Arrieta getting traded this offseason.

Quite possible he's not available or would be super expensive, but I also don't think he's been rumored for more than a year because the current FO loves him. They don't need to deal him, especially if they have their hearts set on competing next year(silly), but they also have plenty of arms in that system to not need to cling to Teheran for dear life either. Soler, Almora, Happ, Candelario, Cease

That's a bit much, there's a more than logical argument for him to be at the top of the list. But really it's no outrage that Scherzer won, and the actual voting tallies are zero surprise since Lester and Hendricks were going to split the homer/local vote. I would have had Syndergaard and Fernandez 1-2. They were the best pitchers in the National League in FIP and WAR and were near the top in ERA and strikeouts. Hendricks would have been 4th for me at best. That's not illogical, but FIP is also not going to give Hendricks his due because of how well he avoids hard contact. Those two also didn't throw any more innings than Hendricks either. Scherzer did throw those innings, although from a pure ERA standpoint Hendricks could've stayed in games longer with a 7 ERA and still come out ahead, plus their FIPs were the same. Really it all underscores that there were 7 or so really really good pitchers this year, 8 if you include Kershaw. None of them would've been horrific choices, and the gaps between them are small enough that the ordering doesn't matter.

That's a bit much, there's a more than logical argument for him to be at the top of the list. But really it's no outrage that Scherzer won, and the actual voting tallies are zero surprise since Lester and Hendricks were going to split the homer/local vote.

I'll be extremely surprised if someone fires Gulati's ass too. House needs to be cleaned. I thought Gulati has an elected position? Or am I misremembering?

Chris Archer is likely to cost more than Chris Sale For my money, I'm still really hoping that Teheran or Odorizzi are possibilities. Could/should be available and without really emptying the farm, 4 years of team control through their prime, past the injury nexus and have shown an ability to take a major league workload, and repertoires where you can dream on some improvement with Bosio's impact.

What's the market for a guy like Soler at this point? He'll be 25 on opening day. The stats are improving, his walk rate is up, his swing percentages are better, and he's hitting more fly balls (and more HRs). But his health is a concern, his defense is a concern, and he still strikes out 1/4 of his PAs (better than 30% last year, but still). For $3M in 2017 and $4M/year after that, any chance he's actually more valuable to the Cubs than whatever pitching they can get for him? Soler has incredible power and for the last year plus has been an averageish player on the whole, so anyone who likes his profile enough to trade for him is going to dream that power gets more realized with consistent PT plus entering his prime years. 4 years of a player you think is average with potential to be Edwin Encarnacion is worth a fair bit, even at arbitration salaries. That doesn't mean he's worth that to everyone though, other teams see that he isn't playing every day and is shielded a bit, and the leg injuries are certainly cause for concern. As it relates to the Cubs, in a world where Fowler is signed, Soler is basically a platoon player/injury replacement, and one that needs to be more appealing than both Baez and Almora to get playing time. There's opportunity for him but it's not a substantial one, so as long as they can find a way to find one team optimistic on his future, as long as that team can be used to further their other goals I'd put good odds on him being traded. Again though, this assumes Fowler back in the fold, without him there's more opportunity and more uncertainty on the whole.

I'd agree that packaging Soler and Almora for pitching if you bring back Fowler is the best case scenario. Kinda tough to do in a 1 for 1 deal since they're both OF so maybe you need to get creative, but if you've got Fowler back then I think you have a good chance to sell high on Almora since I'd bet the front office is pessimistic on him being more than a role player/averagish starter. That means you also need to bring in another version of Coghlan(maybe even Coghlan himself), but that's a role I'd have a lot of confidence in the FO's ability to fill, especially since there's some decent options around.

losing to Mexico at home and then winning @ Costa Rica would be a very Jurgen thing to do, so let's do that

JJ Cooper points out that Otani would be subject to International bonus pools if posted this offseason(because he's under 23 and has < 5 years pro experience), which should seemingly kill any lingering hope of him being in MLB in 2017: http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/pool-rules-will-keep-otani-coming-u-s/#UYICFy5xjWxwo9yT.97