Transmogrified Tiger

alright, let's do it

We're mostly just getting off crosses, which against the Dutch back 3 with Ferreira as striker is going to be an uphill battle(to our credit, we're targeting the top of the box a lot where there's space). Need to get the ball to the end line to create cutback angles and/or work harder to get it into zone 14. Ferreira's first touch let him down when we tried to do the latter, so I wonder if Gio comes on for him since we need 2.

Jedi if you are sprinting into the box with the ball and defenders are running out of your way to track runners maybe consider kicking the bejeezus out of the ball at the goal

of all the ways to concede, a beautiful 10 pass build out is less frustrating than a set piece or an individual error I guess

oh man he was actually onside, I didn't even let myself hope in realtime

The Brewers are the ones sending cash? I kinda get it for them, but that's a pretty big coaching/development bet on fixing Winker and Toro.

Embolo had a huge chance a few minutes after the 3rd goal too

The Swiss just got about .8 xG and didn't score in the first 30 seconds

So yesterday a favored team from the Iberian peninsula lost to an Asian side which meant that the Asian side went through at the expense of a group favorite and 2010 semifinalist. And today we are now one South Korea goal away from.....a favored team from the Iberian peninsula losing to an Asian side which means that the Asian side goes through at the expense of a group favorite and 2010 semifinalist.

The Swanson talk and the related worry about how good his bat might be got me looking at where they could raise the offense's floor, and I took another look at Josh Bell. I'm not gonna go all in on him but I think there's an increasing number of cases where he's a smart addition. - He can produce. Outside an anomalous 2020(I swear, every player I look at had an anomalous 2020 in one direction or the other), his wRC+ in recent seasons is 123, 119, 135. He raises the floor for the offense, which is very much needed given the lack of a lineup anchor. - He's very well rounded. In recent years he's hit well from both sides of the plate and does so with strong BB/K, Steamer says 11.6 BB%/17.6 K% for 2023. That's not only a net positive on its own, but his presence means you can go after a riskier profile with other additions or not have to worry about R/L imbalance as much. Bonus note: I know folks worry about his lack of fly balls, but he makes so much contact that I think this is overblown. Case in point, on a per 650 PA basis, the difference in number of LD+FB between Bell and Kyle Schwarber(an *extreme* FB producer) last year was less than one per week. - He doesn't inhibit other moves much. Bell doesn't require a QO, shouldn't get a contract long enough for Jed to be antsy about giving out other long term contracts, and his likely AAV is in the range that if you aren't getting Bellinger the main sacrifice you're making is him v. a similar cost SP(which we are increasingly seeing as bad deals). That means that he still fits in an offseason where you get e.g. a SS, Senga, and Vazquez as more primary hole fillers. - He does have risk. The biggest for me is that he's a post-30 1B, and that profile is filled with players who were productive right up until the moment they fell off the cliff and were never useful(never mind worth their contract) again. You hope that Bell's well rounded profile helps hedge against this(and Freeman/Goldschmidt/Rizzo offer some optimism that profile is improving after the Pujols/Fielder era), but his peaks and valleys within seasons and lack of elite fitness are not great harbingers.

Someone who knows more than me tell me why this would or wouldn't work. I don't think it would be dramatically worse than playing Wright, again assuming Gio's health(I think Matt Doyle pointed out he wasn't exactly running hard in his one appearance so far, so seems like a big assumption). Where I think this has the chance to go poorly is the Netherlands are gonna be in a 3 back setup, and while having Gio or Ferreira pull out CBs by dropping in can help disorganize the shape, it also means the striker's runs are gonna need to be very good to get on the end of any crosses. Gio's a smart player but he doesn't have the reps in that role to be in sync with who might be giving him service or to stay a step ahead of guys like Van Dijk or De Ligt.

Just ftr: not necessary for a competitive 2023 given the nearer to $100 million than not they'd have to spend to even push up against. All the more excuse to go get more than just a SS Correct, you're the one creating an odd strawman of the Cubs being terrified of using resources while being linked to nearly half the QO FA(all 3 SS + Bassitt) as well as names requiring 8 figures like Senga, Bellinger, Abreu before he signed, etc.

So the ultra conservative Braves might go over in a very technical way, the Rays are kicking the tires on multiple QO’d players, but it’s inconceivable the Cubs might do more than sign a SS and fill out with fringe players The Cubs are linked to several QO'd players too(plus the Rays interest in DeGrom was so strong they signed Eflin 24 hours later), and yes they're very unlikely to go over the CBT threshold this year

Defensively he went from a previous career high of +5 RAA to +15, which was 2nd in MLB across all positions last year. UZR says he was +2 last year and has one year better than that in his career, while DRS is more optimistic(+8 last year, +21 in 2020) Offensively he matched his career high from 2020 with a 116 wRC+, and the main difference between those seasons and the rest of his career is a .350 BABIP. IsoP, BB/K, batted ball, HR/FB, plate discipline, none of it noticeably different than other seasons where he was a league average hitter.

How do these announcers repeatedly not know the tiebreakers. I understood it a bit for Mexico's group because who has the live yellow card count handy, but knowing that Spain is comfortably through on GD unless CR wins is easy stuff.

it cracks me up that a bunker & counter team plays Joel Campbell up top who perpetually plays like it's his second 90 minutes of the day

I get the bunker mentality from Costa Rica, but they just had a 5 v 4 or at worst 5 v 5 in transition and they approached it with zero urgency and couldn't even get the ball into the attacking third. They know they need to at least score one, right?

beginning to think Costa Rica won't end the day on -6 GD

For me it's more the continued accumulation of signed deals. Like maybe there's an early-offseason premium being paid to get guys to put pen to paper, but Clevinger, Boyd, Martin Perez getting a QO, even Nick Martinez are not leaving much room to think the floor is all that low for players who have any room for optimism in their performance.

Most people I've seen agree that deal would be a slight stretch, but Kelenic has 550 PA of sub-replacement play since that prospect ranking, and Madrigal is a pre-arb former top 50 prospect(as high as 12 by BP) himself that has at least shown some ability to hit MLB pitching. I think the value is in the ballpark even if it's most likely Madrigal plus something. The biggest problem, that you did point out, is finding a team where Madrigal fills a need. That's why I came back to the A's, because they're one of the few teams with a bad middle infield situation at both the MLB and high minors that would be more willing to overlook Madrigal's lack of positional flexibility.

This was basically identical to the ball Pulisic scored on against Iran, except Lukaku stopped and tried to chest the ball down to himself and a bad touch instead just bounced it sideways back to the keeper. I don't think he was trying to chest that down, I think he didn't see it until late or got caught flat footed when Lovren whiffed the header. I didn't really want Belgium to go through, but seeing Lukaku after the game was still a bit heartbreaking.

I'm gonna have to come back to the Madrigal for Kaprielian deal I floated earlier in the offseason. I don't love him as a player, but there's enough to like that if any FA SP worth considering is getting 12-15M+, getting him for a surplus infielder to be the secondary SP addition makes the offseason a lot easier.

Similarly a stretch but you could maybe include Tatis in with Machado. He doesn't have age or opt-outs working for his trade candidacy(and therefore the competition would be intense), but they're already talking about how they don't exactly have a position they really want him playing to start the year so the logical leap to trading him to fill other holes/get LT relief/move on from his off-field nonsense is at least within the realm of possibility.