Transmogrified Tiger

The Dutch gonna try to Burnley their way into a comeback, phenomenal

Baseball reference has L/R minor league splits: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=morel-000chr&type=bgl&year=2021 In 2021 he had a heavy platoon split, but he's had several minor league seasons that were more split neutral.

https://twitter.com/rwohan/status/1599823387966464001

I think this was talked about on here somewhere yesterday as likely, that the Cubs' to-do list has a bat on it but the ability for that guy to play 1B is more of a nice to have I take this as Taillon is viewed as being the "other" SP this winter, but they wanted to get it done now to make sure they didn't whiff entirely on the rotation. Are they planning to pull down their top guy via trade? Pablo Lopez? I dunno, viewing him as the best non-QO SP and waiting to add more 'depth' could be about making another SP simply fit in salary wise more than ensuring they're better than Taillon. Thanks to trades it could be both, but I didn't get the same impression. As for the bat, it sounds like they only see one spot to be filled aside from SS & C? I wonder if that's sincere belief that they're fine with the depth, or they're gonna cross that bridge with what's left over if they do end up using MLB position players in a trade. Swanson, Vazquez/Narvaez, someone like Martinez/Brantley, and a 10M SP(Smyly?) would probably let you extend Hoerner and just barely stay under the tax line.

A little bit of that, and also that the most important number is the 17 million. Players aren't going to be looking up the individual OPS or WAR of all their new potential teammates, but if they've got an offer from the Cubs who are saying "we're going to be in the playoffs next year" it is more clearly demonstrated that Jed isn't blowing smoke when he drops 35 million AAV on 2 players and says there's more coming.

Yeah Bellinger was not brought in with the intention of playing 1st. Is the flexibility nice, sure. There are certainly scenarios where Bellinger and Davis are both crushing it and that's a way to get them both into the lineup. But Bellinger's been one of the worst hitters in the league the last two years but has played monster enough defense to mostly compensate for it. They're planning on the latter continuing while trying to mitigate the former. Even setting aside the 1B part of it, any team that paid 17 million for Bellinger did so with belief he'd be a better hitter than recent form, otherwise they'd find a far cheaper option for bad bat CF defense. With that in mind, I don't think Plan A is Bellinger at 1B, but I think that option as a contingency could very well be part of it. That contingency could be Davis going nuts to start the year like you said, or it could be Mervis falling on his face while Velazquez looks good. Or it could be that the plan is to sign Swanson but if it falls through they don't want to lose the option to pay Nimmo or trade for one of Arizona's outfielders. I also think for a team in the Cubs' position, banking a signing like Bellinger(and Taillon) even if you aren't 100% sure how he'll be used is something that's done as a signal of intent to other players they may be working with that may be hesitant about the team's competitive intent. His positional flexibility just keeps more potential options open that can be bigger upgrades than the post-prime crowd or buy low bounceback guys.

Increasingly, what I'd really like them to do is add enough that they're comfortable trading Morel. I like Morel, but he's possibly at a high in value given his swing and miss, he's really probably a 2B/3B which if you add a SS cuts out lots of potential PT(plus next year's FA stars are shaping to be 3B-heavy), and he's got enough value to lead a trade for a significant addition that doesn't carry a big salary. You can use him to get Murphy(good fit, requires more), Jansen(bad fit, standalone), or a Marlins SP(good fit, requires slightly more) and work around that with the rest of your additions.

They're still taking to Smyly. I'm pretty much expecting him to be their final SP add. They've also been linked to Bassitt a couple times. I'm kinda intrigued by Tom's point that Bellinger may not be locked into CF, I thought I had heard someone in the FO describe him as a primary CF but couldn't find it. That could mean that if they did strike out on the SS you could pivot to Nimmo, but I also don't know if there's another reasonable target worth relocating Bellinger(Tom just pretend I said Varsho so you don't have to say it).

The Padres were plenty luxury tax conscious with their moves over the summer, and also they haven't won 90 games since 2010, so I'm more than a little skeptical of the framing that they're the ones working the league by not playing by the ownership class's rules.

Mostly because people on Twitter are super melodramatic. Also at the moment it seems like the most likely to be a Cub is Swanson, which some people are varying to degrees of unhappy with.

Fiancee, it's Mallory Pugh of USWNT fame

Is Malloy toolsier than Fangraphs leads me to believe? Because Malloy and a 26 y/o AA reliever w/ a 4.73 ERA while giving up cash too should.. not be enough for Jimenez?

https://theathletic.com/3980158/2022/12/07/cardinals-sign-willson-contreras/ Olson went for (at the time) two 50 FV prospects (both close to MLB ready), a 45 FV and a 40 FV from other levels. Following that pattern reasonably closely could get you something like:

Interestingly, Profar and Mastrobuoni have near identical projected batted lines w/ Steamer. Ah, forgot we added him. Never mind the Profar idea then use the money he’d take to throw at an established RP, he can cover a Morel/Madrigal going out. I almost prefer him to Madrigal for a roster balance standpoint, can play more spots, LHH, etc. Not that it's a bad idea because he exists, depth is good and projections for end of roster types are going to be sketchy(McKinstry projects for a 98 wRC+, for example), it just made me wonder how different the expectations were by comparison.

Interestingly, Profar and Mastrobuoni have near identical projected batted lines w/ Steamer.

Depends on how you define it, but guys with significant offensive improvement on past form would be Montero, Valbuena, Coghlan, and Wisdom in recent years. Further back you have Aramis, Lee, Barrett, and Todd Walker too.

It has not. 20+ hours is a long time for nothing else to drip out about it though.

First and foremost, others on Twitter pointed this out but this isn't significant news, it's not in either party's interest to not at least schedule conversations(which is all the article mentions is taking place), and the article continues the trend of pointing out Berhalter may prefer to try to capitalize on this relative high and try his hand at club coaching overseas. That said, I am conflicted about it. On the plus side, the internet perception of Berhalter is way out of wack with reality. This was no more obvious than in the last week when the USMNT fanbase continued to shriek about him for umpteen different reasons while the foreign press and european tactics bloggers raved about his work. He's met performance expectations, built a great culture in the team, been a terrific recruiter, adjusted his tactics to play to his team's strengths, and generally had a smart outlook on deploying an international team. This is ironically reflected best in the bouts of offensive struggles the team has had, because part of the reason the attack is static at times is an emphasis on rest defense, and Berhalter understands that in international play and especially in tournaments that variance can burn you so it's best to limit opponent attacks before they start. As it relates to him getting a 2nd cycle, I think a lot of the risks(holding on to last cycle's prime players too long as they age out) don't have near as much risk for this roster so the downside is more muted. Also of note, 6 of the 8 quarterfinalists have a coach in their second cycle. On the down side, I think if you want the program to move up a level and be a team favored in a knock out round and being seriously considered to make the semis/finals, you'll need a little better on field coaching and tactical flexibility than Berhalter has shown. You could reasonably argue he doesn't expand more tactically because of how inexperienced his core is(along with the limitations of international soccer), but this is also the soccer he wants to play so it's not as if he's eager to add more clubs to the bag but is holding himself back. This also manifests itself at not being able to conform his approach to the roster at hand, which leads to things like playing 4 different players at striker in 360 world cup minutes. All that said I don't have a strong opinion on Berhalter staying or going. I'm fearful that a different manager will be a worse downgrade at Berhalter's strengths than it is an upgrade on his weaknesses, but I also don't have intense optimism that he's going to level up the team more than increasing the talent and experience will already.

I guess I'm not sure why this would be in question at this point. They're linked both locally and nationally with all of those things, Mooney/Sharma specifically listed the holes they wanted to fill that included all of them, and there's significant noise about them spending more than recent years. Maybe the SS isn't Correa and maybe the SP isn't Senga or the catcher isn't Murphy, but it seems very certain they are going to keep adding at those spots. The main open question is if they can win the race for one of the SS, since that's the one spot where there's not really a plan B, but they're heavily linked to all 3 available which means they aren't putting everything in a single option.

Did some poking around the free agent list for other bat-first options that can help with the DH need. There's not a perfect option out there but there's a few that interest me. JD Martinez - has slipped from previous highs, statcast doesn't like his recent developments which is worrisome given his age, and he's DH only, but a 120 wRC+ guy from last year being available for a one year deal. Michael Conforto - wildcard given his down 2021 and missing a whole year with a shoulder injury, but would be a good bet to be a similar caliber bat on a short term deal. If he's taking a get-right deal though I doubt he'd come here with the OF situation covered with better players/defenders. Evan Longoria - Like all the old Giants didn't match his 2021, but a 115 wRC+ last year and the ability to play 3B(which could make Morel expendable in a trade for a C or SP) is pretty attractive for his likely contract(crowdsourcing says 1/8). Luke Voit - had a down year with the bat and that might mean he's about done as a non-prospect pop up hitter over 30, but his struggles were being weirdly terrible against LHP which seems more random/fixable than decline. More swing and miss than you'd hope but for his likely price it could be a cheap way to get a 115 wRC+ bat and hedge Mervis. Michael Brantley - injuries are always the concern here but he can still hit. If the Cubs snagged a SS would their competitive outlook be good enough to entice him? Do the Astros want him back badly? Wil Myers - You'd probably only do this if there's some swing fixes you think you can unlock, but he adds a little defensive value at 1B and corner OF, and since the pandemic he's over a 120 wRC+ away from Petco. Justin Turner - Basically the deluxe version of Longoria, but you probably have to wait out his preference for the Dodgers.

Yeah I think this is a fair summary. I'm encouraged by the reporting that the Cubs were after him specifically from the start of free agency, so it seems clear there's something they they think they can get out of him. I like the velocity and at a simple level the profile is one that wouldn't be shocking if they could get another level from, and the early returns on Wesneski at least give a little hope that the Yankees aren't infallible developers of pitchers. The last point is what my main takeaway from this deal was. After today it seems very likely that one of these things will be true: 1) they don't get a SS 2) they go over the luxury tax 3) one of the non-SS holes they need to fill(C, 1B/DH, SP) will be filled by a player with minimal salary(not necessarily worse, could be a trade). It's not impossible there's an outcome where it all fits in, but unless they want to not extend Nico they'd need one of those things to happen to have any midseason breathing room/margin for error for my simple calcs to be off by a couple mil.

the most important thing I learned watching the lottery was that the White Sox apparently made Dave Kaplan their scouting director

Ben Clemens had 3/42 on fangraphs I would've guessed a 3 year deal before the offseason too, but with the higher prices and the specific 'long term' language from the earlier tweet, makes me think 4 years with a similar or slightly higher AAV is where it lands.

Wonder what the Taillon contract will look like, seems like the rumors are trending towards something in the vicinity of 4/55-60?

13 it is