Transmogrified Tiger

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/braves-open-to-exceeding-luxury-tax-threshold.html Might be a good sign for going over? I don't read too good I'm not sure what it means for going over, but if it says anything I think it says there's going to be more up front spending, which typically only happens for big deals via signing bonuses or occasionally with front loading.

I always forget how buyouts are handled for LT purposes but since mutual options are never exercised it seems intentional EDIT: Roster Resource counts the full 17.5 towards LT payroll, so the buyout structure is probably a cashflow thing

Yeah it's basically the same reason I liked Nimmo, you can roll the dice on star upside, in Nimmo's case it's about health and Bellinger is about ungoofing his swing. If he gets the swing fixed at all he'll be worth it and maybe help them take a leap, and even if he treads water he's a QO candidate they can recoup investment on that way.

No word on if it's Cody or Colby tho

Brisbee just pointed out the Giants open the season in Yankee Stadium

I think Nimmo's market hasn't had a ton of chatter, at least that I've seen. As a QO guy with a price tag of 20M+ I'd written him off, but after the last 24 hours I'm not so sure. If they'd potentially sign Bogaerts and Swanson would they sign one of them and Nimmo? Not sure but doesn't seem impossible. And I do like Nimmo as a target.

2/33 with an opt out for Bell, a touch high on AAV like you'd expect for a 2 year deal, but yeah I wouldn't have minded playing in those waters at all.

Good god, how busted is Brailyn that he was not only cut, but able to be resigned? Save for a single random MLB relief appearance in 2020(where he got lit up), he hasn't pitched in a professional game in 3 years, and hasn't pitched above high A. Why would anyone offer him a 40 man spot?

If I were to read too far into the various bits of reporting, you could maybe see a narrative emerge. Ricketts says the money is there, just make sure the team is competitive again soon. They know they'll be in the LT as soon as next year and if not the year after that, so combined with Contreras this is the year to not be precious about the QO when it'll dampen offers compared to others. The front office knows they have many holes they want to fill to get there, and instead of being super tactical about their targets, take the approach of aggressively pursuing several SS and possibly multiple others(like the SP). If you get a bite on more than one that's a good problem to have and preferable to striking out given the team's need for star power, but otherwise you're working on ensuring you get one more than trying to get the perfect target and contract(like Hawkins alluded to). The Murphy stuff as much as I would love to see it feels more like an attempt to get Vazquez over the line if he truly has been close for a few days.

I will make SSR eat his long-promised hat if they sign both Bogaerts and Swanson.

Have we talked about Bassitt before, because him being a target is a bit confusing to me. Not that he's a bad pitcher, he seems like a solid target, but I have a hard time reconciling his relative lack of top end ceiling with paying the QO price to get him. I could almost understand it as a way to avoid needing a huge 4-5 year deal if they weren't going to get a SS, but there's plenty of Bogaerts and Swanson smoke that would require a QO too. While I can see the logic for signing multiple QO guys this year when the penalties aren't higher and they'll gain one back via Contreras, it's a specific type of aggression I can't say I was expecting(again, especially for someone with Bassitt's perceived ceiling).

It's also the SS who had the least Cubs smoke, being taken by one of the (deep pocketed) teams most clearly pursuing a SS. Of course, all of that game theory means nothing when the Rangers give Bogaerts 12/470 and tell Semien to play catcher.

Given the composition of the rest of the rotation, I think they probably need to prioritize velocity a little more. To me there's nothing inherently wrong with taking a shot on Manaea, but when you have so many current options who can't touch 95(or 90 in the case of Hendricks), adding a guy who averages 90 is more problematic than it would be otherwise.

To maybe specify a bit better, Soler's been basically a 100 wRC+ DH since the start of the pandemic, and he's 31 now and missed significant time with a back injury so there's headwinds that might temper statcast-related optimism. What I'm saying is finding a positionless player who projects to be a league average bat is not a thing that costs real money. You might not get Carlos Santana level certainty, but to pull a couple of free agents you see on lists, Willie Calhoun and Yoshi Tsutsugo both project similarly via Steamer and aren't going to get 5-10 million. Frazier cost 2 million last year, any number of AAAA/Rule 5 types aren't going to cost any money, etc.

I get that Soler's production isn't the main point, but is there really that much difference between him and Franmil Reyes for the Cubs purposes? Soler gets a WAR boost from teams pretending he can play LF, but the Cubs(or any contending team) rightfully won't ask him to do that. Especially when a big part of the benefit of trading for a Marlins SP is you aren't paying market rates and can spread that AAV around better. You'd have to be very sure that Rogers or Luzardo was going to turn into a top of the rotation arm, otherwise(and in all situations for Lopez given his service time), you could spend the money on their favorite SP target(Senga, Taillon, etc) and get a DH for near-free who has similar prospects as Soler.

as I was saying

every Mbappe goal I see is like 'well yeah not sure how you keep him from doing that' and for France it happens every game

Weah played pretty well overall, but in the 55 minutes of play that Gio had this World Cup, he created a LOT of chances. You and I didn't watch the same games. I'm with Wolf, Gio was more dangerous as a 9 when he got the ball wide than the other strikers, but he wasn't a part of any clear cut chances, he benefitted from game state, and wasn't very attentive defensively/as a presser. On a different note, it seems like the expectation is less that US Soccer will make a decision on Berhalter but rather that he's gonna move back into the club game thanks to mutual interest: https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/three-takeaways-as-usa-suffer-world-cup-exit-against-netherlands Whatever the reason, if they are looking for a new manager, they can afford to take their time a bit and find the right person, though I am intrigued that Pellegrino Matarazzo is currently available. For those unfamiliar, he's New Jersey born and played college soccer before moving to the lower levels of Italy and Germany as a player, then moving up the German coaching ranks(he's close with Nagelsmann and was his assistant at Hoffenheim). As a manager he got Stuttgart promoted back into the Bundesliga and had a strong initial campaign, then struggled with an injury ridden team last year and got sacked after a bad start this year.

One being 28 and the other 35 is a big reason. Eflin's excellent turn as a reliever probably means a team like the Rays(who signed him) believe in their ability to minimize his shortcomings relative to a guy like Gibson too, who is more of an end of the rotation innings eater.

Mostly echoing, but for me the biggest things are: - Can a striker make the leap? Sargent seems to have stopped his career's free fall and is still only 22, Pepi is scoring goals in the Eredivisie and is still 19, maybe Balogun is the next recruiting win? Dike(also only 22) gets healthy and starts scoring for fun again? - MMA depth, those 3 are great and will continue to improve(especially Musah) but we can't be one knock from being unable to control the last 30 minutes of games. Maybe this becomes Reyna but I think it's a struggle to see him as an engine room guy, and frankly he's a gifted enough attacker that he's not gonna get forced there at the club level. Maybe Pomykal finally stays healthy and gets a European move or just levels up in the way Acosta did between cycles? Does Malik Tillman get a chance to be that guy for club or country? Can Jack McGlynn become enough of a defender to complement his passing? Is Aidan Morris able to be an Aldi-brand Adams level ball winner? Maybe Busio, Tessman, or Bassett get their careers back on track? Maybe Johnny Cardoso becomes a thing? - Can we get a top class CB pairing? CCV's improvement(he'll be under 30 next cycle) gives some hope plus Robinson and Richards seem like a good pairing now that just weren't healthy. McKenzie, EPB, and Trusty will all be in their primes at the end of the next cycle too. - Outside back depth. RB seems in decent hands between Dest, Scally, and some youngsters(Reynolds, Che), but left backs, especially left footed left backs, are more scarce. Robinson can hopefully keep improving and he's a perfectly fine baseline, but you hope someone like Vines, Tolkin, or Jonathan Gomez(if he commits) can make it possible to at least sub off Robinson for freshness. - What recruiting wins can they get? Berhalter did an excellent job this cycle at creating the culture that players wanted to be a part of, and if it had been a random international coach I shudder to think of how the tournament would have gone without one or more of Dest, Robinson, or Musah. I mentioned Balogun above, but what others that we have no idea about now(like Dest, Robinson, or Musah) could play a part in this cycle?

not strong enough up top to create the lion's share of chances not clinical enough to win via ruthlessness not deep enough to outlast a team of this caliber after 3 high intensity games

lollllllll Haji you picked a great time for the luckiest touch of your life