Transmogrified Tiger

what pleasure do you derive from these criminal parasite owners allocating capital efficiently Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk At a minimum it would be funny to watch a criminal parasite think he can dominate the league by parachuting in and tossing money at whatever suits his fancy only to have it fail, but bigger picture it'd be reassuring to spend time following a sport that doesn't ultimately boil down to purely being the ownership olympics. It'd be one thing if Cohen were trading for a bunch of pre-arb players and giving them 12 year extensions or otherwise campaigning to reform the player salary structure, but in the same way I'm not concerned about the marginal P&L of owners I'm also not terribly motivated by the top percentile of the player pool getting marginally more money thanks to his efforts.

I would be very careful about making that connection with minor leaguers(read: I wouldn't do that), given that the correlation is not talking about minor leaguers nor is it easy to normalize for them, there's increased likelihood of measurement error given incomplete or imperfect data at certain parks, and the numbers of BIP are not high in many cases. But I do think this is a good data point that hedges against the odds of Morel's profile collapsing entirely with that K rate risk, especially given that he's shown some aptitude for making adjustments already. As far as his defense goes, it's worth pointing out that he spent most of his MLB time at positions he played very little of in the minors(2B and CF), but going forward he stands to rarely play given the way the roster has evolved.

The other thing that's interesting to me is that this might be the first move that actually improves the Mets over last year's team? Nimmo, Diaz, and Ottavino were re-signings and are coming off career years Robertson is like for like with May or Lugo Senga and Quintana project similarly to Bassitt and Walker of last year and/or this year Verlander is a likely health upgrade over 2022 DeGrom but of a similar caliber SP Narvaez is probably a small upgrade at C

I'll be fascinated to see what they do next offseason. I'm only eyeballing rosters so actual projection systems might differ, but even after their spending spree I'm not sure if they're the favorites to win their division or be a Top 3 team in the NL. So a middle of the road outcome would be losing in the wild card to the Padres again(because 1) baseball and 2) all it takes is one injury/collapse to a 40 year old for them to be at a pitching disadvantage), and they're currently already at 270 LT payroll for 2024. Does Cohen just keep going until results change(which might be an expensive and funny treadmill given the age of this roster)? Does he get bored realizing the spending isn't linearly correlated with success? Do the other owners try to blow up his car Michael Clayton style?

I think Fulmer is my favorite reliever left, so this is welcome news. If they added him then I'd be comfortable with the pen as a whole. Fulmer/Hughes/Boxberger in late innings, Thompson/Alzolay (with Wesneski in reserve) as aggressive multi inning options, Leiter Jr/Wick (plus eventually Heuer/Estrada/Rodriguez/etc) as single inning middle relievers, with Sampson/Assad as a long relief/inning eater option.

Thinking about what the fanbase would've done if Jed had signed Correa, Swanson signed with the Twins or w/e, and then they find out Correa has boneitis. Jamfan might've committed hara-kiri

I've said it in this thread before, but to me the way you do PKs is you make all players live at the whistle. Defenders can try to get to the ball or cut off part of the goal(so no exaggerated slow run ups that don't mimic any other soccer play), and the keeper can come off his line to cut down on the angle. Most of them will still get scored, but this better represents real play(like a breakaway) and the success rate drops enough that they are less overpowered during regular play while shootouts become a little less random. But to IMB's point as a fellow HS GK, there is nothing more satisfying than stopping a PK, every time is basically like robbing a game winning home run.

At this point getting Conforto would break one of my priors(Conforto getting a 8 figure salary, Smyly getting 7-10M AAV, Cubs not going over the LT, Cubs spending more than near-minimum on at least 1 more RP), but if they signed him this really is a pretty good lineup in the median outcome: Happ Suzuki Conforto Swanson Mervis Hoerner Bellinger Morel/Wisdom Gomes/C That median outcome is probably less likely for that group than it is for most teams, but you've got 4 guys who don't need to hit their 90th percentile to reach 120 wRC+ or higher, some chance for additional positive variance via Bellinger/Morel, and a couple others helping to raise the floor with Hoerner/Swanson. 3/5/1 LH/RH/Switch and reasonable BB/K balance too.

I know this has been mentioned a few times but it's worth reiterating how sneaky these black holes were, both in terms of overall production and in terms of generating power. Schwindel/Rivas (580 PA): ~.100 IsoP, ~80 wRC+ Mervis Steamer: .218 IsoP, 122 wRC+ Mancini Steamer: .165 IsoP, 107 wRC+ Madrigal/Simmons/Villar (480 PA): ~.075 IsoP, ~65 wRC+ Swanson Steamer: .168 IsoP, 104 wRC+ Swanson ZiPS: .177 IsoP, 106 OPS+

Golden goal makes for terrible soccer in most cases because teams play so conservatively for the fear of that one slip up. In theory that should be better with the current extra time rules, but often it's similar and teams are just waiting for PKs, which aren't great but save us from endless bad and static play. Player health/conditioning becomes a concern at a certain point too. My favorite variant on this is playing golden goal, but every few minutes(let's say 5) both teams take a player off the field. So by the end of the normal 30 minutes of extra time you're playing 6 v 6 which makes basically every possession a transition moment because of how much space is everywhere at all times. It also encourages teams to go for goal when they're closer to full strength before the chaos of being short handed sets in. Yeah, I was curious if this would work. The 3v3 OT in hockey is a fun way to open up the ice and allow more scoring opportunities. Is the soccer field just SO big that reducing the players becomes ridiculous? I play indoor soccer, which is 6 v 6 and has more hockey elements(free substitution, ball bounces off walls, etc). It also is played on roughly a hockey rink sized field, and feels pretty appropriately spaced in most cases. Now here's that size compared to a full soccer field to give you an idea of how much space would exist.

Are those teams really looking for a lineup spot where they can 'get away with' lesser players though? I'm sure having an elite offense makes it easier on the margins to opt for a defensive catcher, but ultimately value is value, and the Yankees and Dodgers in particular aren't going to spare expense on their way to what they think makes the best possible team.

I think everyone hates the shootout but they can't keep playing forever. My personal view is make it "golden goal" - ie whoever scores first wins (so Argentina wins when Messi score yesterday). Yea I was admittedly surprised as I looked up thr overtime rules and found out wasn't a golden goal situation. Sounds like they did it for a while before abandoning again. Is there some purist arguement against it? Golden goal makes for terrible soccer in most cases because teams play so conservatively for the fear of that one slip up. In theory that should be better with the current extra time rules, but often it's similar and teams are just waiting for PKs, which aren't great but save us from endless bad and static play. Player health/conditioning becomes a concern at a certain point too. My favorite variant on this is playing golden goal, but every few minutes(let's say 5) both teams take a player off the field. So by the end of the normal 30 minutes of extra time you're playing 6 v 6 which makes basically every possession a transition moment because of how much space is everywhere at all times. It also encourages teams to go for goal when they're closer to full strength before the chaos of being short handed sets in.

That is the downside, going from watching a World Cup final of that magnitude, to like, FC Dallas v. Sporting Kansas City is gonna be a drop off in every conceivable way. Lots of games are baseball-esque in that they're a slow burn. But it does make it easier to have a rooting interest if that helps. If anyone is interested in getting a greater appreciation for it, the way I think is most useful without becoming a soccer obsessive is to think of it as a combination of basketball and football. Like football, when a team has the ball it's a group of 11 players on a large field trying to manipulate defenders to create space and windows to move the ball forward. In soccer the field is so big that this sometimes means moving backwards to create and reach space down the field or on the opposite side. However, unlike football and more like basketball, teams are working on repeatable and fluid patterns more than very specific scripted plays, because possession changes often and you can't line up 11 players perfectly to do super-choreographed moves with regularity. Also like basketball, the most exciting moments come from transition where teams are sprinting into open space. Ultimately, if your main sticking point for enjoying the sport is how much scoreboard achievement there is, even the most entertaining soccer game is going to be an uphill battle and it's probably not for you. But if you can appreciate the stakes, the skill, or at a basic level follow how teams are trying to solve the sport's main puzzle(11 people can't cover the whole field, how do we get our guys the ball in space), then it can be fun to follow.

Very true, I think the EPL is probably the best to follow for those who are looking into soccer for the 1st time. I started watching around the 94 WC and also got season tix to the Chicago Fire in their inaugural season as well as friendlies in Chicago. I started following Everton when Joe Max Moore joined the Blues. If you're not bothered by a Yankees/Dodgers WS every year, I would suggest the Scottish Premiership because the greatest rivalry in any sport is Rangers/Celtics, IMO. Is that baseball or hockey vs basketball? Protestant vs. Catholic

Barnhart has been pretty consistently fine against RHP, save for last year where he was one of 30 hitters who cratered for the Tigers. He shouldn't ever face a lefty and with Gomes and the likelihood of his spot in the lineup(hitting 9th before some combination of Happ/Suzuki/Swanson) it shouldn't be hard to make that happen. Not my plan A or B but Gomes + Barnhart should keep the defensive bar high and be better than the sum of their parts.

Don't forget extending Hoerner. My hope is that there isn't much plan to leave a few mil for the deadline, the Padres showed you can do a lot and still stay under, and if they're competitive and wanting to add maybe that's the motivation to push over the line. The best version of this is probably Madrigal for a reliever, Smyly, a bat for ~10M, and whichever catcher you end up with(none of the options should be > 5M).

They have a few players that could be removed without much pain. The most obvious is Rivas, but McKinstry, Uelmen, and Rucker could be possibilities too. Not sure if this is what you meant by trades, but they could also be using 40 man players to get those guys on your wishlist too, Madrigal probably being the most likely.

Not the more exotic trade I might dream of seeing, but I like Smyly and prefer him to most(maybe all?) the remaining FA options. When he was in discussions before the offseason the speculation was in the 1/8 to 2/14 range, wonder what it is now.

I mentioned earlier that I had written off Conforto since he's probably taking a get-right deal and he wouldn't want to come to a full OF, but if he's a possibility he might be the one player I want them to get the most for the rest of the offseason.

I think especially if you're cruising past the luxury tax it's a tough pill to swallow to sign Eovaldi, but I don't have a super high opinion of him though. The upside is there compared to your Smylys and Klubers, but I just don't think that HR rate is gonna stay low enough to be more than an averageish SP. For me, the biggest questions are 1) is the LT a hard limit now that you've banked Swanson? 2) can you trade for a C that's better than the remaining FA(Jansen, maybe Murphy, etc)? and 3) what type of arm can you get for Madrigal? 4) what AAV is gonna be needed to extend Hoerner now?

I think this is something worth thinking about when evaluating super long term deals, I've seen that sentiment on Twitter(comparing what an average FA salary was in 2009), and I'm curious what we think would drive revenues high enough that it would come to pass. The last decade saw an explosion in TV money to support that growth, but that pace seems to be decelerating, especially for local deals. I lack imagination so I won't say it's not possible(e.g. in 2030 everyone pays $100/month for MLB.VR), but I think it's worth thinking about the assumption that it absolutely will grow at the same pace.

The Cubs have now added the 4th most AAV in free agency(Mets, Yankees, Giants), and one of those(Yankees) spent most of their money keeping existing players.

I like Gallo enough as a target in the abstract, but him and Bellinger is probably a bridge too far with a similar risk profile. Another data point on what some of the other players of this tier might be getting though.

The thing that makes me pessimistic on this compared to the alternatives is I have a hard time seeing that deal work without a 3rd team unless the Jays are willing to ship off Jansen to beef up the farm system. Mayyybe there's a 'Conforto's ask is reasonable so we trade Happ and an arm for Jansen and sign Conforto' type permutation but that feels aggressively unlikely given the near radio silence on everything that's not the SS pursuit.