Transmogrified Tiger

I guess I'm not sure why this would be in question at this point. They're linked both locally and nationally with all of those things, Mooney/Sharma specifically listed the holes they wanted to fill that included all of them, and there's significant noise about them spending more than recent years. Maybe the SS isn't Correa and maybe the SP isn't Senga or the catcher isn't Murphy, but it seems very certain they are going to keep adding at those spots. The main open question is if they can win the race for one of the SS, since that's the one spot where there's not really a plan B, but they're heavily linked to all 3 available which means they aren't putting everything in a single option.

Did some poking around the free agent list for other bat-first options that can help with the DH need. There's not a perfect option out there but there's a few that interest me. JD Martinez - has slipped from previous highs, statcast doesn't like his recent developments which is worrisome given his age, and he's DH only, but a 120 wRC+ guy from last year being available for a one year deal. Michael Conforto - wildcard given his down 2021 and missing a whole year with a shoulder injury, but would be a good bet to be a similar caliber bat on a short term deal. If he's taking a get-right deal though I doubt he'd come here with the OF situation covered with better players/defenders. Evan Longoria - Like all the old Giants didn't match his 2021, but a 115 wRC+ last year and the ability to play 3B(which could make Morel expendable in a trade for a C or SP) is pretty attractive for his likely contract(crowdsourcing says 1/8). Luke Voit - had a down year with the bat and that might mean he's about done as a non-prospect pop up hitter over 30, but his struggles were being weirdly terrible against LHP which seems more random/fixable than decline. More swing and miss than you'd hope but for his likely price it could be a cheap way to get a 115 wRC+ bat and hedge Mervis. Michael Brantley - injuries are always the concern here but he can still hit. If the Cubs snagged a SS would their competitive outlook be good enough to entice him? Do the Astros want him back badly? Wil Myers - You'd probably only do this if there's some swing fixes you think you can unlock, but he adds a little defensive value at 1B and corner OF, and since the pandemic he's over a 120 wRC+ away from Petco. Justin Turner - Basically the deluxe version of Longoria, but you probably have to wait out his preference for the Dodgers.

Yeah I think this is a fair summary. I'm encouraged by the reporting that the Cubs were after him specifically from the start of free agency, so it seems clear there's something they they think they can get out of him. I like the velocity and at a simple level the profile is one that wouldn't be shocking if they could get another level from, and the early returns on Wesneski at least give a little hope that the Yankees aren't infallible developers of pitchers. The last point is what my main takeaway from this deal was. After today it seems very likely that one of these things will be true: 1) they don't get a SS 2) they go over the luxury tax 3) one of the non-SS holes they need to fill(C, 1B/DH, SP) will be filled by a player with minimal salary(not necessarily worse, could be a trade). It's not impossible there's an outcome where it all fits in, but unless they want to not extend Nico they'd need one of those things to happen to have any midseason breathing room/margin for error for my simple calcs to be off by a couple mil.

the most important thing I learned watching the lottery was that the White Sox apparently made Dave Kaplan their scouting director

Ben Clemens had 3/42 on fangraphs I would've guessed a 3 year deal before the offseason too, but with the higher prices and the specific 'long term' language from the earlier tweet, makes me think 4 years with a similar or slightly higher AAV is where it lands.

Wonder what the Taillon contract will look like, seems like the rumors are trending towards something in the vicinity of 4/55-60?

13 it is

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/braves-open-to-exceeding-luxury-tax-threshold.html Might be a good sign for going over? I don't read too good I'm not sure what it means for going over, but if it says anything I think it says there's going to be more up front spending, which typically only happens for big deals via signing bonuses or occasionally with front loading.

I always forget how buyouts are handled for LT purposes but since mutual options are never exercised it seems intentional EDIT: Roster Resource counts the full 17.5 towards LT payroll, so the buyout structure is probably a cashflow thing

Yeah it's basically the same reason I liked Nimmo, you can roll the dice on star upside, in Nimmo's case it's about health and Bellinger is about ungoofing his swing. If he gets the swing fixed at all he'll be worth it and maybe help them take a leap, and even if he treads water he's a QO candidate they can recoup investment on that way.

No word on if it's Cody or Colby tho

Brisbee just pointed out the Giants open the season in Yankee Stadium

I think Nimmo's market hasn't had a ton of chatter, at least that I've seen. As a QO guy with a price tag of 20M+ I'd written him off, but after the last 24 hours I'm not so sure. If they'd potentially sign Bogaerts and Swanson would they sign one of them and Nimmo? Not sure but doesn't seem impossible. And I do like Nimmo as a target.

2/33 with an opt out for Bell, a touch high on AAV like you'd expect for a 2 year deal, but yeah I wouldn't have minded playing in those waters at all.

Good god, how busted is Brailyn that he was not only cut, but able to be resigned? Save for a single random MLB relief appearance in 2020(where he got lit up), he hasn't pitched in a professional game in 3 years, and hasn't pitched above high A. Why would anyone offer him a 40 man spot?

If I were to read too far into the various bits of reporting, you could maybe see a narrative emerge. Ricketts says the money is there, just make sure the team is competitive again soon. They know they'll be in the LT as soon as next year and if not the year after that, so combined with Contreras this is the year to not be precious about the QO when it'll dampen offers compared to others. The front office knows they have many holes they want to fill to get there, and instead of being super tactical about their targets, take the approach of aggressively pursuing several SS and possibly multiple others(like the SP). If you get a bite on more than one that's a good problem to have and preferable to striking out given the team's need for star power, but otherwise you're working on ensuring you get one more than trying to get the perfect target and contract(like Hawkins alluded to). The Murphy stuff as much as I would love to see it feels more like an attempt to get Vazquez over the line if he truly has been close for a few days.

I will make SSR eat his long-promised hat if they sign both Bogaerts and Swanson.

Have we talked about Bassitt before, because him being a target is a bit confusing to me. Not that he's a bad pitcher, he seems like a solid target, but I have a hard time reconciling his relative lack of top end ceiling with paying the QO price to get him. I could almost understand it as a way to avoid needing a huge 4-5 year deal if they weren't going to get a SS, but there's plenty of Bogaerts and Swanson smoke that would require a QO too. While I can see the logic for signing multiple QO guys this year when the penalties aren't higher and they'll gain one back via Contreras, it's a specific type of aggression I can't say I was expecting(again, especially for someone with Bassitt's perceived ceiling).

It's also the SS who had the least Cubs smoke, being taken by one of the (deep pocketed) teams most clearly pursuing a SS. Of course, all of that game theory means nothing when the Rangers give Bogaerts 12/470 and tell Semien to play catcher.

Given the composition of the rest of the rotation, I think they probably need to prioritize velocity a little more. To me there's nothing inherently wrong with taking a shot on Manaea, but when you have so many current options who can't touch 95(or 90 in the case of Hendricks), adding a guy who averages 90 is more problematic than it would be otherwise.

To maybe specify a bit better, Soler's been basically a 100 wRC+ DH since the start of the pandemic, and he's 31 now and missed significant time with a back injury so there's headwinds that might temper statcast-related optimism. What I'm saying is finding a positionless player who projects to be a league average bat is not a thing that costs real money. You might not get Carlos Santana level certainty, but to pull a couple of free agents you see on lists, Willie Calhoun and Yoshi Tsutsugo both project similarly via Steamer and aren't going to get 5-10 million. Frazier cost 2 million last year, any number of AAAA/Rule 5 types aren't going to cost any money, etc.

I get that Soler's production isn't the main point, but is there really that much difference between him and Franmil Reyes for the Cubs purposes? Soler gets a WAR boost from teams pretending he can play LF, but the Cubs(or any contending team) rightfully won't ask him to do that. Especially when a big part of the benefit of trading for a Marlins SP is you aren't paying market rates and can spread that AAV around better. You'd have to be very sure that Rogers or Luzardo was going to turn into a top of the rotation arm, otherwise(and in all situations for Lopez given his service time), you could spend the money on their favorite SP target(Senga, Taillon, etc) and get a DH for near-free who has similar prospects as Soler.