Tim

Groovy. Nothing seems to be crashing down... Now for a more expanded test. Here goes all of 2003.

Now for the big test. Deleting all posts from prior to 01-APR-2003... I'm at 19066 before delete (including this post).

The board backup starts NOW!

I am working on this again tonight and will be performing periodic activities that will be tying up the database resources. Also recognize that while I'm not going to bring the board down for this, that if something goes wrong I'll have to do a restore and any new posts that occur after 9pm central will be lost.

The K% are not that far apart though, 18.8% for Eric to 17% for Corey. Consider the K-rates in context, though. It was the first exposure to pro ball for Corey, who had not played in college and wasn't even a full-time baseball player in high school. One measure of success I look at in minor leaguers is the number of extra base hits per strikeout. Corey's ratio of 72/85 is really, really good when considering the context. EP's ratio of 50/94 is still good, but nowhere near as good as Corey's and comes with three full years of experience in a strong baseball program. Now, his walk rate is better than double Corey's, which is obviously a good thing. And they are different players, so any comparison is reasonably worthless to begin with. I'm merely suggesting that I'd really like to see EP have success at the upper levels of the system before writing him into any future lineup.

On Corey: I think it was a combination of his own innate inability to recognize pitches and the Cubs persistence in trying to make him something he wasn't that screwed him up. I think his lack of ability to recognize pitches was the key, though. If he gets a full time shot in Baltimore, I'd still give him even odds of putting up better numbers than Jacque Jones, though. On EP: Given his own issues with strikeouts, my expectations are a bit lower than many. Just for fun: G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO Avg Obp Slg Ops Corey 19 112 475 94 152 35 17 20 79 33 9 25 85 .320 .358 .592 950 Eric 22 110 432 90 144 26 11 13 71 40 11 53 94 .333 .405 .535 940 This doesn't really mean much, but Corey had a better strikeout rate at low A than Eric did while being three years younger at that level. Let's not rush Eric any more than we have to!

Give us Reyes and you can have Jacque Jones! Cards are idiots if they don't have Reyes in the starting rotation. Period. IMO, the Cards missed an opportunity to deal Jason Marquis while his perceived value around the league is pretty high. For someone that couldn't even stay in his own team's rotation for the full year, it seems odd that his name was being bandied about in high end deals like it was. Of course, since none of those deals actually happened, perhaps it was more the sportswriters overestimating his value rather than other GM's.

Give us Reyes and you can have Jacque Jones!

I'm not very well versed in sabermetrics, thats for sure, so my opinion won't hold much weight in this discussion, but I'm learning. My comment is for vance. I disagree that there wasn't any reason to believe that Cedeno could have stuck on a major league roster at the time. I certainly found Cedeno's inclusion on the 40-man surprising as well, and I wouldn't have placed him on the roster given the information that I had, which was primarily anecdotal evidence and stats. However, if I had the full scouting reports that Hendry and other GMs had and, based on those reports, I felt there was a reasonably good chance that Cedeno could hit major league pitching in 2-3 years and certainly could defend at a major league or near major league level now, there is a chance that I would have taken him in the Rule 5 draft. Imagine if you are the GM of a team who has in its lower minors someone who possess the tools necessary to be a major league starter at SS. He is still young enough that we can't have a clear idea what his ceiling is so he could be great or just mediocre. Developing even a just a good starting SS who will fill that position for the league minimum is very hard to do and presents a large advantage to your team financially if it happens. Lets say you recognize his potential value to your organization. It is only logical to assume that other GMs might also recognize this player's potential? Given those circumstances, do you still risk exposing him? All the other team has to do is use him as a late-inning replacement for a year and then send him to AA or whatever. I think it is pretty likely that someone in the Cubs organization, if not Hendry himself, felt very strongly about Cedeno's chances to be a quality major league SS. Hendry became convinced enough to protect him on the 40-man roster and, this time, Cubs management was right. Cedeno's subsequent development adds a lot of credence to Hendry's decision to place him on the 40-man when he did. But that's baseball. You get some right and you get some wrong. This one Hendry got right. If we are going to be acutely aware of everytime one of his moves doesn't work out, shouldn't we also be just as aware of when they do work and be just as generous with the credit as we are with the blame? Please, find the last time a player coming off seasons like Cedeno's two years before being placed on the roster, as young as Cedeno was at the time, whose highest playing experience was high A ball -- who was drafted in the rule 5 and stuck on a major league roster. We'll wait. Sorry to be placing the burden of proof on you, but as someone that's followed the rule 5 pretty closely the past 5-6 years, I can't remember anyone close to that situation that's managed to stick.

Soto and Jose Reyes are still on the roster. If Barrett got banged up, they'd start Blanco and call up a kid. If he went down for the year, they'd probably pick up some journeyman off the waiver wire (the way they got Neifi and about 5 other shortstops in recent years), or trade for some vet from a crap team. Who's better...Soto or Reyes? I don't know who's a better defender, but Soto is the superior offensive player, and is also regarded as a good defensive catcher. Superior as in 280-220 or superior as in 230-200? Neither one would be likely to hit for any kind of average in the bigs if they were called up in 2006. Neither hits for much power. Soto draws a lot of walks (relatively speaking), which provides his edge offensively. Defensively, Soto is good, Reyes is better. Reyes is a better athlete as Soto is a bit "thick" in the bottom half.

I don't know John to ask for a chat. But I'll send an email when I get a chance. That's cool. Any chance Jim Callis will come by again? I can certainly ask.

I don't know John to ask for a chat. But I'll send an email when I get a chance.

Link As Tampa edges ever closer to dealing Huff.

I'm surprised he doesn't have either Cain or Reyes as A prospects, actually. I guess the point is that it could be argued that several guys should be there who aren't, but there aren't any guys who are there who shouldn't be. Tough grader, indeed.

I grade him as someone we're going to enjoy seeing at Peoria in 2006. :thumleft:

And more than 20% of all the blue chip prospects in baseball in AZ's org. Looks like Sickels shares my opinion about their system. :)

It doesn't necessarily invalidate your point, but, after 2004, BA ranked the Angels' top nine as Kotchman, McPherson, Aybar, Mathis, Morales, Wood, Santana, Kendrick and Callaspo. Wrong order maybe, but that's that's a nice bundle. I know BJ Upton and Edwin Jackson aren't rookie eligible any more, but neither's broken into the big leagues really, so as far as I'm concerned they're still prospects. Include those two, plus BA's top eight from this year, Delmon Young, Jeff Niemann, Jason Hammel, Reid Brignac, Elijah Dukes, Wade Davis, Wes Bankston and Chad Orvella, plus Chuck Tiffany, and that is one amazing farm system. The Dodgers have simply ridiculous depth. I mean, check out some of the players that didn't even make their top 10 this year (and they were all eligible). Chuck Tiffany, Justin Orenduff and Delwyn Young. Hong-Chih Kuo. Willy Aybar. Cory Dunlap. Luke Hochevar could still sign. James Loney's star has fallen but he's still a decent prospect, Greg Miller likewise. And there's my personal favourite: Travis Denker, the second baseman that aged 18 hit .311/.372/.556 in the Pioneer League, and aged 19 hit .310/.417/.556 in the Sally League, yet still can't get any love just because he's short. Anyway, there you have it, ten Dodger prospects that'd crack the top 10 of just about every other major league team, if not the top 5 in some cases. Ridiculous. I certainly like the Dodgers depth more than AZ's. But I'll take Arizona's top six. I remember having a great farm system. :(

I think it's more that a healthy Williamson > Wuertz. I don't think anyone's really "down" on Wuertz. We have a surplus in the pen right now, and Wuertz is right on the fringe. It's a good thing. The two posters I replied to said "I have zero confidence in Novoa or Wuertz," and the other "i agree. wuertz and novoa are the weak links." If that's not down on Wuertz, I don't know what is. I agree though, that a healthy Williamson is tough to beat. If both of those two guys have the type of years I think they're capable of behind Howry, Eyre, and Dempster, then we could have the best pen we've ever had. 1980 - Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith, Willie Hernandez, Bill Caudill & Dick Tidrow in the pen at one time.

Why'd you think that? He has spent the last two years in the pitcher friendly parks of the Florida State League. Dopirak will see the same kind of improvement in the SL. Some people forget that Moore is an extreme talent and at one point in his career had a huge upside. I have seen Moore numerous times and he is a solid prospect and a huge sleeper in this system. Remember Moore was so highly thought of at one point that he was taken #8 overall in 2002. That is in front of both Hermida and Francouer. The SL is not much more of a hitters' league than the FSL. Also, Pringles is pretty hard on hitters, in particular. I'm not sure either Moore or Dopirak will get that much of a boost by moving there. That's not to say that they won't do better in 2006, it's just that I don't think the move itself is going to do it for them. Both of those guys can make huge strides if they can increase their contact rate. Both have pretty high potential and are still young enough to reach it. I would be a bit more optimistic for the two of them in 2006 if Von Joshua were still there at AA.

I may take some heat for this, but... Fantasy baseball.

With a guy like Wuertz/Nova slated for use in the sixth inning Dusty shouldn't have to overuse are starters. I can't really remember a pen with more talent in the last years off the top of my head that the Cubs had. Ohman/Eyre/Williamson/Wuertz are all 7,8 inning guys on other clubs. Ohman and Williamson could be closers for some clubs when healthy. Williamson could be a setup/closer, but I don't think Ohman could be. Ohman is rather a lefty specialist/loogy. He's not particularly good against righties. Welcome to the forum! However, I can't agree about Ohman. He had 82 PA against lefties and 78 against righties. He was incredible against lefties, holding them to a .593 OPS against. However, right handers hit about like Nefi against him, with a .695 OPS against. He's clearly better against lefties. But nobody hits him hard at all.

Looks to me like the Cubs outscored the opponents by 47 runs from the 6th inning and on (not counting extras). What's wrong with that?

Id like to see them matchup against the Angels top 6 Brandon Wood is very, very good and is probably the best prospect between the two teams. But Drew and Upton are not that far behind. Howie Kendrick doesn't quite match up with one of those two. And I don't think the next four guys in the Angels list match up at all with the guys in the D'Backs list. All six of those guys will probably be in the top 50 and could all be in the top 30 in baseball.

Francis Beltran - before he got hurt Chadd Blasko - before he got hurt Even Jason Wylie - before he got hurt. Marmol is a good comparison with Beltran. Beltran was a horse though. Marmol doesn't have quite the size, but a similar repitoire. Beltran was a starter at the point in his career where Marmol is now too. Marmol's been better as a starter than Beltran, though.

Jim - For some reason Vlad, Abreu and Dunn didn't fall in our lap. Me - I've never asked for a superstar in RF, just someone who can do more than "catch the ball" for $16M/3. Smartass. Oh, and do something about that hair. Jim - Who's not a superstar, but does more than catch the ball?? Me - Hardcore Cub fans set their sights way too high this offseason considering what was available. The Cubs need to try the novel concept of developing their own talent and not relying on free agency to fill need after need. Meat - Are you kidding me, Hendry? Have you seen Jones' numbers in relation to other qualified RFers over the last two years. He's in the bottom third offensively. ---------- Oh, and how long will it take to develop our own position players (that are actually decent)? How old will Prior, Zambrano, Lee, and Ramirez be at that time? Setting our sights too high? No, just don't fill the roster with the likes of Neifi and Jones with multi-year deals. I'm not asking for the all-star team, just more prudent decision making. Who likes the Jones signing? Neifi? Rusch? 3 boneheaded moves. Who should Hendry have got then? I'd answer, but you'll just say he wasn't really "available". Ah, what the heck...he should have overpaid whatever it took to get Giles.