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Tim

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Everything posted by Tim

  1. Tim
    I'd go with the crowd and take ADF. It's remarkable how similar the results are between them, though.
  2. Tim
    I bet there are a considerable number of parents, especially in the SF area, that wish that the word "steriods" did not have to come up when their children talk about him. For me, my early thoughts center on how early I should start selecting pitching. I have had some decent offenses over the years, but I have never been able to put together a solid pitching staff. Does anyone know if Kent will qualify at both second and first next year? Kent only played 14 games at first base last year, so you'll have to wait until he plays 10 games there in 2006 to qualify. The pitching is tricky. For the most part, the only pitchers out there that are fairly sure bets are 39+ years old. Once past those first round pitchers, it is more art than science to get a guy who will be productive. Last year I had a dominant staff, but got really lucky on Carpenter, picked up Patterson part way through the season after he was released by someone else, held over Burnett because he was cheap coming off his injured season and then went with the sure thing in Livan. Much of my playoff issues were caused by Bonderman wearing down and shutting down, Carpenter being ineffective late in the year, Livan getting injured and Burnett going off on his team. In 2004, I had three pitchers I kept and then dropped guys every week and found pitchers in the bargain bin that I could get a couple starts out of or who had favorable matchups. This year, I'm taking an approach where I'm going to load up the rotation with vets, then have about 4 pitchers on my minor league roster for their first 10 starts. Around mid-May, I'll trade off or dump the guys that don't win out and probably keep 7 guys on my roster and rotate them based on matchups.
  3. Tim
    Do you really think Bonds will return to form? Come to think of it Sheff is getting a little old too :loser: All this talk of past championships is boring. Shoot, NC will probably win this year. I think Bonds will be the best hitter in the game when he's on the field. I plan on keeping an extra OF around just in case he spends more time off it than on, though. After all, I'll still have Gomes, too. BTW - if anyone is intersted in one of my picks, make me an offer. I do love to trade!
  4. Tim
    Well, they're inheriting the players from a DJaxx team that steamrolled through the regular season. Minus a few big pieces (Murton, Nolasco, Pinto, and I'm sure a couple others). I hope the Iowa team is exciting and good -- it's a fabulous place to watch a game, and I take advantage of it every chance I get. Can't wait to finally see Pie. True, but they'll have some holdovers, too. They could field a team with interesting guys at every position, though with few standouts other than Pie. The staff could still be very interesting with Hill / Guzman / Marshall / Ryu / Valdez / Marmol as rotation candidates C - Soto 1B - Sing 2B - Lewis (I think he'll rebound a lot this year. He isn't as good as his 2004, but he's not as bad as his 2005) 3B - McGehee / Craig SS - Theriot / Coats LF - Bacon CF - Pie RF - Greenberg C - Reyes IF / OF - Hoffpauir SP - Hill SP - Guzman SP - Marshall SP - Ryu SP - Valdez RP - Brownlie RP - Pignatiello RP - Rohlicek RP - Wellemeyer RP - Shipman Naturally, the team won't actually look like this. Some guys will get hurt and others will get left at AA to make room for the roster fillers.
  5. Tim
    I'm not sure Hall catches the ball well enough for Hendry to have much interest. All kidding aside, he is brutal in the field. He will snag the occasional ESPN highlight, however...his day to day defense makes Walker look like a Gold Glove. Brewers have a nice foundation, I would argue there are many more questions to be answered by their roster than ours, yet some on this board seem to think they have the makings of a better team than the Cubs. Go Figure... How about a friendly wager -- I believe the Brewers will outscore the Cubs this year. If the Cubs staff is healthy, I think we'll have a better record. But I like their offense more than ours at this point. Weeks played with a torn ligament in his thumb for much of last year. Fielder is going to be a monster in the future and should be pretty good in 2006.
  6. Tim
    Well, they're inheriting the players from a DJaxx team that steamrolled through the regular season.
  7. Tim
    I'm pretty sure Pinto won't be there.
  8. Tim
    I'll settle for another undefeated regular season. After all, the playoffs are a crapshoot and the best team doesn't always win. ;)
  9. Tim
    Woo - hoo! Officially the 1st and 3rd draft picks. Probably the 16th and 17th, as well. Hmm...I need an outfielder a catcher and a couple more good pitchers. I should be done after the second round. :D Dunn is going #1, but there are a number of other questions... If Sheff is still available with the third pick I don't know that I could pass up an OF with Bonds, Abreu, Dunn & Sheff. Can Beckett stay healthy? Do Clemens, Johnson and Smoltz have another great year left in the tank? Will Clemens even play? Andy Pettitte can't really be that good, right? Varitek seems too high at #3, but I doubt he'll last until 16/17. When is the right point in the draft to start adding closers? Would Jeter provide a huge lift over what I'll get from Barmes / Upton? How many of my young pitchers will excel in 2006? Between Bonderman, Cain, Liriano, Reyes, James and Verlander, I'm confident of a couple guys stepping up. But how much starting pitching do I really need to draft? What prospects will be added to the database before the draft? Is anyone worth drafting early? What other pitchers might surprise in 2006? So many dilemmas. :D
  10. Tim
    Which is probably as it should be. Next year is a different story.
  11. Tim
    If Neifi is 4-4 and Aramis is 0-4 with 3K's, I'd still want Aramis.
  12. Tim
    Crap. Why not keep him on the bench, spot him into action once in a while to give Murton a break against some right handers, take a chance that he'll perform well and build his value up ahead of the trade deadline?
  13. Tim
    In every field, it is nearly impossible to prove that something does not exist. I don't believe in ghosts, but I cannot prove they are not real. However, the burden of proof should lie with the people who are positing that something does exist. I have yet to see any compelling evidence that there are players who are clutch. What cracks me up about this argument is when people say it has a huge impact....but can't be measured. That is what I'd really like to have explained sometime.
  14. Tim
    Or because Wilson would be the most productive OF on the roster. I like Marrero. Cheap, and can play catcher if needed. I've been advocating him for a while, so I'm on board.
  15. Tim
    Bah. No need for Soriano. Just tell Corey to start swinging for the fences again and you'll get the same thing.
  16. Tim
    Four
  17. Tim
    So, basically Koufax is the only one of the ten year career guys you believe belongs? Pretty much so. A player has to do something extraordinary for me to let him in with just 10 years. I guess I can understand that. I too think that a player needs an extended peak to get in without the long career, but in my opinion, Belle and Kiner meet that. Both had an 8-10 year run in which they were an offensive force. I think there's more to a career than the peak. To me, longevity of being a "good" player is also important. For instance, I'd like to see Griffey hang around for a while and have a few more "good" seasons before leaving the game. Same thing with Thomas, Bagwell, etc. Not gonna happen with Bagwell. Doubtful with Thomas. Would you put either in right now? Griffey's in, and I think he will have a few more good seasons to make him a 1st ballotter. After looking things up, Big Frank has played at least parts of 16 seasons and had a much better peak than Belle. He's in for me. Bagwell's played parts of 15 seasons and had a comparable or better peak than Belle. He's near the edge of what I'd put in (I'm tough to get a yes from), but I'd probably put him in.
  18. Tim
    I agree with UK here. Soriano has an edge on Walker as a player. However, that difference wouldn't come close to the price we'd have to pay to acquire him.
  19. Tim
    So, basically Koufax is the only one of the ten year career guys you believe belongs? Pretty much so. A player has to do something extraordinary for me to let him in with just 10 years. I guess I can understand that. I too think that a player needs an extended peak to get in without the long career, but in my opinion, Belle and Kiner meet that. Both had an 8-10 year run in which they were an offensive force. I think there's more to a career than the peak. To me, longevity of being a "good" player is also important. For instance, I'd like to see Griffey hang around for a while and have a few more "good" seasons before leaving the game. Same thing with Thomas, Bagwell, etc.
  20. Tim
    So, basically Koufax is the only one of the ten year career guys you believe belongs? Pretty much so. A player has to do something extraordinary for me to let him in with just 10 years.
  21. Tim
    I don't think Kiner belongs, either.
  22. Tim
    is that the one by ken ross? i think i have that, but have never read it. I don't have it handy, but I'm pretty sure that's the author. The book uses betting on baseball game outcomes as an elementary introduction to probability theory. Not at all what I thought it would be.
  23. Tim
    My advice if you would like to remain a member of this site is to refrain from the personal attacks.
  24. Tim
    Mathemetician at the Ballpark really sucks unless you want to bet on baseball games. That's pretty much the subject of the book.
  25. Tim
    Teach the prospects that control of the strike zone is the #1 priority. #2 on my list is to improve the flow of prospects from outside the US.
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