Tim

Maybe a couple of years prior, but I think he proved that to be a myth in '05. Home: 331/386/527/913 Away: 330/384/500/884 Now show the three year averages...

Young, Jeter, Peralta Young is purely a creature of Arlington. As you know quite well. Jeter's peak was many moons ago and hasn't been Tejada's equal in some time. And his defensive issues drag his value at SS down quite a bit. Peralta needs to do it for more than one year to prove it.

Part of the argument here is durability, though, so I don't like using rate stats when that's the case. Ramirez+Lugo = 43 Win Shares, 36 offensive Tejada+Mora = 45 Win Shares, 36 offensive And I don't like Win Shares at all. :D Let's look at it this way: Tejada is the best offensive SS in baseball still playing SS. Bar none. I'd put ARam behind: - ARod - Wright - Ensberg - Chipper - Rolen Again, don't get me wrong. I really like ARam. But Tejada is a better SS than ARam is a 3B. But I'll emphasize again that I wouldn't do the trade if I had to give up Aramis. Okay, I don't understand. ARod? Absolutely. Wright? Very, very well-rounded and young. Justifiable. Chipper? Maybe, but his health has been as big an issue as Ramirez's--more so, actually, and the production has been comparable. Rolen is generally better, but until he's proven healthy, there are serious question marks. But... Ensberg? Did you forget 2004? Great 2005, fine 2003, but '04 was garbage. Not exactly consistent. And he's two years older than Ramirez, to boot. Considering he didn't blow Ramirez away in 2005 in terms of production, and Ramirez *did* blow Ensberg away in '04, I'd certianly value Ramirez higher right now. With Lowell gone from Florida, though, you could have included Cabrera and certainly would have gotten no argument. Alright, sub in Cabrera for Ensberg on that list, then. BTW - I notice you don't have anyone that you're trying to claim is better than Tejada, but you'll concede at least several guys in front of ARam and admit that a few more are justifiable. At SS, nobody's even close to Miggy anymore.

I said no, as I'd be far too disappointed if it didn't happen if I actually expected it to come through.

No.

Part of the argument here is durability, though, so I don't like using rate stats when that's the case. Ramirez+Lugo = 43 Win Shares, 36 offensive Tejada+Mora = 45 Win Shares, 36 offensive And I don't like Win Shares at all. :D Let's look at it this way: Tejada is the best offensive SS in baseball still playing SS. Bar none. I'd put ARam behind: - ARod - Wright - Ensberg - Chipper - Rolen Again, don't get me wrong. I really like ARam. But Tejada is a better SS than ARam is a 3B. But I'll emphasize again that I wouldn't do the trade if I had to give up Aramis.

Part of the argument here is durability, though, so I don't like using rate stats when that's the case.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3? Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too. Doesn't that reflect the SS position and it's defensive importance over what's more of an offensive position at 3B? I mean, isn't that an apples and oranges comparison? That depends on the argument you're having. I'm saying that Tejada is a more valuable player than Ramirez when all things are considered. Which makes that particular stat extremely relevant. But in the context of a team, and not individual value, isn't Ramirez plus Lugo, for instance, more valuable than Tejada and Mora or Perez? I'd take Tejada and Mora over the other pair. Looking purely at offensive value (VORP instead of WARP), here's the results: 2003 2004 2005 T+M 58.1+41.8 73.0+73.6 70.0+41.1 A+L 37.4+27.4 59.6+33.4 48.8+49.9

That boat has sailed already, my friend. We didn't offer arby. Stupid out-of-port boats! For the record, I thought it was a poor move not offering arby regardless of any of this Tejada nonsense. Yeah, I'm on record as having recommended it.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3? Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too. Doesn't that reflect the SS position and it's defensive importance over what's more of an offensive position at 3B? I mean, isn't that an apples and oranges comparison? That depends on the argument you're having. I'm saying that Tejada is a more valuable player than Ramirez when all things are considered. Which makes that particular stat extremely relevant.

Forgive my ignorance, but what's WARP3? Wins above replacement player. It is a cumulative stat, so Tejada's games played advantage shows up. It also incorporates defensive value, so it highlights Tejada's edge there, too.

That boat has sailed already, my friend. We didn't offer arby.

If they played the same position on the field, I'd agree. To get production like his out of SS allows a lot of flexibility elsewhere on the field. Putting things differently, Tejada is going to be a sure-fire HOF player at his current pace as a SS. ARam is not nearly as clear-cut at 3B. There's also the defensive difference in value to consider. If ARam was even as good a third baseman as Miggy is at SS, I'd be more inclined to ignore things. But you're comparing an above average SS to a below average 3B on that side of the ball. That makes up an awful lot of the offensive gap. But I'll say that I'd be thrilled to have both! I definetly want both, don't get me wrong! I'm just miffed at the slight undervaluing of Ramirez. His defense took a step back in 2005, but it improved in 2004. Having more flexibility in his lower body might signifigantly help his defense. Also factor in that we don't have any good in house options for 3B, and there aren't really any good options out there to trade for that would be better than Aramis, or even comparable. Now contrast that with the fact that we have one potential in house alternative for SS in Cedeno, and a couple potentially on the market in Cabrera and Lugo. If we can't get both Miggy and Aramis, I'd rather pass on Tejada and keep the younger, cheaper, more productive Ramirez and fill in the SS position and focus more on RF. But again, I want both! I wouldn't trade ARam for Tejada unless we were to somehow get Mora in addition. 3B is generally an easier hole to fill, but it isn't for the Cubs at the current time.

Neither would I. Aramis is better than Miggy. Is he better when you factor durability into the equation? Tim, this past September was the longest extended period of time missed for Aramis since 2002. He's got to cure the nagging hammy issue, but it's not like he's the second coming of Alou, or Nomar even. His durability is not that big of a concern. Yeah, but we're comparing him to baseball's current iron man. It is a factor. My only real complaint with Tejada is that he walked less in three of the past five years than Corey did in 2004. Aramis 2004: .318 .373 .578 .951 . Games played that season: 145 Tejada 2004: .311 .360 .534 .894 . Games played that season: 162 Aramis 2005: .302 .358 .568 .926 . Games played that season: 123 Tejada 2005: .304 .349 .515 .864 . Games played that season: 162. His iron man status doesn't reflect in their production when compared side by side. If anything, it shows that the Cubs were correct in sending a trainer down to the DR to work with Aramis. If he were able to play 155 games, his numbers would be Manny-esque. WARP3 from BP: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Aramis 0.8 2.6 1.6 5.8 4.6 Tejada 6.3 8.4 6.0 11.8 9.5

If they played the same position on the field, I'd agree. To get production like his out of SS allows a lot of flexibility elsewhere on the field. Putting things differently, Tejada is going to be a sure-fire HOF player at his current pace as a SS. ARam is not nearly as clear-cut at 3B. There's also the defensive difference in value to consider. If ARam was even as good a third baseman as Miggy is at SS, I'd be more inclined to ignore things. But you're comparing an above average SS to a below average 3B on that side of the ball. That makes up an awful lot of the offensive gap. But I'll say that I'd be thrilled to have both!

Neither would I. Aramis is better than Miggy. Is he better when you factor durability into the equation? Tim, this past September was the longest extended period of time missed for Aramis since 2002. He's got to cure the nagging hammy issue, but it's not like he's the second coming of Alou, or Nomar even. His durability is not that big of a concern. Yeah, but we're comparing him to baseball's current iron man. It is a factor. My only real complaint with Tejada is that he walked less in three of the past five years than Corey did in 2004.

Neither would I. Aramis is better than Miggy. Is he better when you factor durability into the equation?

Quite a few. Ramirez is at best average at third. Walker is below average at second. The IF would be strong at SS and 1B, but wouldn't rank at the top of all MLB IF's. Now, if Hendry trades Walker and we end up with Lee, Cedeno, Tejada & Ramirez, that would be pretty impressive defensively. Tim, Are you thinking defensively? Aramis is way above average offensively. oops. Read that first post wrong. :oops: nevermind 8-[

Quite a few. Ramirez is at best average at third. Walker is below average at second. The IF would be strong at SS and 1B, but wouldn't rank at the top of all MLB IF's. Now, if Hendry trades Walker and we end up with Lee, Cedeno, Tejada & Ramirez, that would be pretty impressive defensively.

My favorite Chicago Sports figures: Walter MJ Ryne (Thanks again, BK!)

Having no RF'er in its current state will put this offense back to '04 levels as well as counting on Lee to produce exact numbers as last year. It also seems as though people just assume that Aramis will actually stay healthy for a full year, too.

Why do you think Tim said no arb to Nomar wasn't the worst thing that happened these last few days? Because he read the thread where I mentioned being in a plane crash? :)

I had voted for snow, but now I'm not so sure. :evil:

Rats. Well, it's not the worst thing that's happened in the past couple days, I guess!

I've been, uh, busy the past couple days. Did we offer Nomar or anyone arbitration?