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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    He doesn't give up many home runs (.78 per 9), but he also really doesn't strike guys out (5.50 K/9) and walks too many (3.67 BB/9). xFIP thinks he's pretty much been the same pitcher as Garza, though (both have a career 4.45 xFIP). With the money as high as it is for a 27 year old with poor peripherals, I wouldn't give up much in talent. I'd rather try for a reasonable Garza deal, I think. Though better than any of that would be Brandon Webb.
  2. dew1679666265
    You probably did come up with something Hendry would consider, because I think he strongly underrates Kosuke and would like the inning-eating ability of Blanton.
  3. dew1679666265
    There were reports then and some since that Larry actually argued that they (Wood, Prior, etc) should have lower pitch counts, but Dusty overruled him. If that's the case, Prior would have knowledge of it.
  4. dew1679666265
    Or bullpen. The only big hole he would leave is on the payroll, which is what you want. When he was healthy the last 3 years he wasn't even the 1-2 starter. Overpaid..unreliable..I see no reason to keep him. I only want minor leaguers back, not other bad contracts. Lemme guess, not enough wins? He actually was second on the team in wins last year, was 3rd in winning percentage in 2008, second in 2009 and 1st last year. It can't be that, I don't think. xFIP doesn't like him, though (4th best xFIP on the team). ERA+ is best on the team, though.
  5. dew1679666265
    That might be something Hendry would consider, but it'd be terrible for the Cubs. Ibanez is 38 and had a .793 OPS last year. Fukudome is 33 and had an .809 OPS last year. Power-wise, Kosuke had a .439 SLG and Ibanez had a .444 SLG last year. They had similar WARs last year (1.5 for Kosuke, 1.8 for Ibanez). Interestingly, according to xFIP, Blanton outpitched his production last year – 4.82 ERA and 4.06 xFIP. I still wouldn't have much interest in him, though. Lidge is the only guy I'd have interest in from that package, and that's because we'd only have him this year and he'd probably move Cashner to the rotation.
  6. dew1679666265
    And we scored a whole 0 points against them last time.
  7. dew1679666265
    Stay away from Titans offensive players. We've failed to score a touchdown for two straight games now and we really haven't come close. Think the Colts defense is bad enough that the 4 touchdowns the Titans scored against them don't count? Well then, I completely forgot about that game and only had the Texans and Jags games in my mind. For what it's worth, I didn't expect an offensive touchdown in that game.... :D
  8. dew1679666265
    Stay away from Titans offensive players. We've failed to score a touchdown for two straight games now and we really haven't come close.
  9. dew1679666265
    That's the way I'm leaning, though Gronkowski's been pretty good. Watson has the better matchup, though.
  10. dew1679666265
    I won't have Rodgers or Gates at my disposal, though. I have Roethlisberger ready to play, though.
  11. dew1679666265
    It looks like Antonio Gates is out, so here's my conundrum: Ben Watson v Cincy Todd Heap (if he plays) v NO Rob Gronkowski v GB Tony Moeaki @ StL Watson is currently on my roster, but the others are still available.
  12. dew1679666265
    After finishing in the top 4 of every league, I'm all but eliminated in all but one. If it's possible to choke in fantasy playoffs, I've found a way to do it. In my other league the regular season champion was 13-0, then lost to the 8th seed in the first round of the playoffs. Sounds like something I'd do. However, I now have an irrational love for Andre Johnson right now. 35 points last night in the Texans' comeback and I come from way behind to advance!
  13. dew1679666265
    Yes, it is. In that number of PA's roughly 25% of players can be +/- 100 points of their actual production. The other 75% of players will be +/- 50 points. That's purely through luck. You need At Least 1000 PAs to start getting a good handle on their real ability. As was alluded to earlier, what if he goes off for a .326/.395/.515/.910 line over his next 323 PA's? Does that mean he's a #3 hitter? Does that mean he was unlucky those first 323 PAs, or was he really lucky the second 323 PA's. You're basing your proclamation on the equivalent of a half season of production. That's nowhere near enough of a sample. You just made that number up. My point isn't that it's predicative. My point is that there is a reason. Randomness isn't it. His true talent level during those 323 PAs was not his career average. I took that argument to be that the 323 PAs are not enough to determine what he'll be going forward in the third spot.
  14. dew1679666265
    I don't think the original argument was that it was a random sample, but that it wasn't meaningful going forward. It was said Byrd shouldn't bat third because he's not a #3 hitter and his numbers in that spot were cited as an example. Others came back and argued that those numbers didn't mean much because they weren't predictive and didn't necessarily show what he would always do in the third spot.
  15. dew1679666265
    After finishing in the top 4 of every league, I'm all but eliminated in all but one. If it's possible to choke in fantasy playoffs, I've found a way to do it.
  16. dew1679666265
    Yeah, that'd be annoying. They have a greater need, though. Their pitching is pretty bad overall.
  17. dew1679666265
    Another possible acquisition war with the Nats? First Pena, then Webb, now Garza? From all the names I've heard, they can beat us on Garza if they'd like.
  18. dew1679666265
    Lilly as a Blue Jay: 4.52/1.411 Lilly as a Cub: 3.70/1.144 Lilly as a Yankee: 4.65/1.320 His BB/9 dropped by about 2 per 9 when he came to the Cubs. There's simply no support for him being the same pitcher pre-Cub and during his Cub tenure. Dempster as a Marlin: 4.64/1.326 Dempster as a Cub: 3.67/1.321 In 2 years with the Reds, his numbers were even worse than with the Marlins. As a Cub, his H/9, BB/9 and K/9 were all a point better as a Cub than as a Marlin. His HR/9 has also been slightly better (.8 as a Cub to 1.1 as a Marlin). On Silva, he has had similar seasons in the past, but he'd been horrid the past two years in a better pitcher's park and most of his peripherals are better than they've been in half a decade or more. He's a different pitcher now, that's pretty clear. On Wells, he had 359 mediocre minor league seasons. He comes under Rothschild's tutelage and he's all of a sudden a very solid pitcher for the same length of time. Maybe he just figured it out all on his own, but that seems pretty coincidental that he'd blossom randomly like that and it not have anything at all to do with Rothschild.
  19. dew1679666265
    Randy Wells, Carlos Silva, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster are an amazing array of talent? Because all of them pitched better after getting under Rothschild's tutelage than before.
  20. dew1679666265
    My point about Garza isn't that he's not a good pitcher, he is. I'm just not sold on him being a #2 type starter for the Cubs - in fact I'm not sold that he's all that much better than Randy Wells. The reason I've been using xFIP is because there's a stark difference between it and the ERA, highlighting, to me, that the Rays have a much better defense than the Cubs. That will affect how much improvement we should expect from Garza switching leagues. I've used other stats looking at him as well and, outside of ERA, WHIP and ERA+, I haven't seen the potential elite starter others have argued he is.
  21. dew1679666265
    not even close colvin blows and snider is the second coming of jose canseco. Ignore the fact snider has been slightly better than Alex Gordon in the bigs. Does that mean Snider will blow the whistle on Steroid Scandal Part 2?
  22. dew1679666265
    Can you have less control of a defense than you have under Saban? Saban seems to be a pretty extreme micromanager, making me think being the DC on his staff is purely title-only.
  23. dew1679666265
    I like Will Muschamp as a coach and recruiter, but this is probably the ideal hire from a Tennessee fan perspective. He's the least proven of the candidates out there (though it's close between him and Mullen), so there will be as much questioning the move as there is praising the move. Had they gotten Petersen, Petrino, Patterson, Stoops, etc., it would almost be a certainty they'd have succeeded. With Muschamp, there's question.
  24. dew1679666265
    Would Thompson make a lateral move to Florida? It would seem that if Kirby Smart goes to UF as the DC, then Thompson would stay at UT. Especially since I believe Thompson and Dooley were good friends prior to their time at UT as well. Am I right in that or would Thompson make the move just to be a LB coach, especially if they add recruiting coordinator to his title?
  25. dew1679666265
    I really don't get what you're arguing here. Flipping coins isn't a skill, it's purely luck based. Pitching is a skill and, therefore, isn't as subject to luck as flipping a coin. Do you just not like xFIP?
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