dew1679666265
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Everything posted by dew1679666265
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Yeah, he even admitted that Garza's WAR has been half that of Haren, but still tried to compare prospects evenly between the DBacks and Cubs. That would be a horrid trade, but luckily I don't think there's any credibility to it whatsoever.
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The only rumor that has included specifics has been from Levine, who said the Rays wanted Chirinos, a "top SS prospect" and two other prospects.
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It'd be really cool to see a team in Nashville, though their existence would probably kill the Predators. It'd give me a second favorite baseball team, at least, for when the Cubs are eliminated.
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It doesn't mean he'll continue to perform poorly if given another 323 PAs. The reason you shouldn't put a lot of stock into small sample sizes isn't because what he did doesn't count, it's because it's simply too fluky and not predictable enough. Small spurts of good or bad performance swing it too largely one way or the other. Did he perform poorly over those 323 PAs? Yes, however that's not enough of a sample size to predict he will continue to perform poorly in the #3 spot.
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I'm counting about 38 starters at sub-4.00 xFIP. That would be, basically, the ace of each staff plus a few. Here's The Harball Times' explanation of xFIP: And FIP, just because it's mentioned in the xFIP definition:
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It's the advanced stats that aren't thrilled with him, actually. He did have two seasons of 3+ WAR, but his best xFIP has been 4.21 – worse than Wells' best season (4.09 xFIP for Wells). His career xFIP is 4.45, even though his career ERA is 3.97. I tend to think he's been the beneficiary of some really good Tampa defenses, something he wouldn't have in Chicago.
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If Byrd has another season like 2009 in the third spot - .904 OPS in 85 PAs – his OPS would improve 110 points. You can start to see a trend, maybe, in 323 PAs, but it's not enough of a sample size to make a declarative statement because it can fluctuate a bunch in a minimal number of PAs. You'll generally want at least a full season's worth of PAs to start getting a good, large sample size. Even then, if they're spread out over multiple different seasons (like RISP numbers generally are) you have to look at other factors such as if he just sucked overall in one year or had a breakout year in another or something. It's a lot more telling if you're looking at a full season's worth of PAs in no more than a season or two worth of time.
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To expand on CCP's point, without a pretty significant number of at bats, stats can fluctuate pretty extremely. Byrd's had 323 plate appearances in the third spot in the order, not even a full half season worth of plate appearances. If he has another season like 2009 where he has a .904 OPS in the third spot, even over just 85 PAs, that overall OPS could change dramatically. You need a lot more PAs for the stats to be reliable. It's the same as RISP stats, it's not that they're not important, it's that they're not reliable because they fluctuate too much.
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Not wanting to trade prospects is part of it. However, Garza's xFIPs scare me, as he hasn't had one as good as Wells' best season. He just hasn't lived up to potential. Webb on the other hand has been an elite pitcher and the only question with him is health. He was clocked most recently in the mid-80s, but he's a low-90s guy at his peak anyway. He's never been a power pitcher, so as long as he's got the same stuff, he's got a realistic chance at being elite again.
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Yeah, Garza will cost $5 million and Webb may be anywhere from $5-10 million. I'm just not sure we can afford both at that price, unless Hendry can defer another $5 mil or so.
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This is my thinking. I tend to think Garza/Webb is an either/or proposition, and I'd much rather have the elite potential if I'm taking a bit of a gamble anyway.
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Not even close to worth it.
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That was my point with the post. From everything I've heard and read, HJ Lee has the skillset and the tools to be a gold glove caliber SS. That doesn't mean he'll reach that level, though. Errors really don't mean much in the minors, though. Castro had a ton of them in the minors, but also has great defensive upside as well. There are a ton of contributing factors in the minors (youth, bad fields, etc) that won't be there when the player gets to the majors.
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As I told goony, if Ramirez goes down for an extended period (very realistic), then we could get crap production from there. We were 7th in the league in wOBA at third last year and that was after a really hot second half by Aramis. As for Castro, I wavered on whether to include him in the reliable positions or not, but the possibility of him being slow to adjust to the adjustments made to him in his second year could cause lesser production from him this year. Or he could just completely blow up and hit his ceiling this year. Basically, it's hard for me to say I know what to expect from a second year player.
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Ramirez's question is health, same largely as Z in the rotation. If Aramis is hurt, 3B production will likely be crap. If he's healthy, it should be top-notch. Castro could be a breakout type candidate, or he could be a bit slow to adjust in his second year. Pena wouldn't be a breakout guy, but he could return to the heights of 2007 or so. Soriano could have a return to greatness for a year. I could see any of them providing top-notch production, but every one could really struggle as well. If Quade would go with Castillo (or Chirinos) over Hill, we could potentially see our catcher spot be the most productive in the NL, as it was 4th last year. As for second being reliable, look one post up from yours – I'm talking about knowing what production we'll get from there, whether good or bad, to more accurately gauge expectations.
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By reliable I meant we know what we're getting out of that position - be it good production or bad. My point was that we can gauge expectations more easily at those positions. At the other positions we may get great production or we may get crap production.
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I agree not kicking the field goal with 32 seconds left was a pretty big mistake, but the throw short of the end zone was on Kerry and Scaife. Kerry is on the team because he's a veteran who knows situations well, and he should have known not to make that throw. Go for the end zone or throw the ball away and conserve time. Scaife should have known not to cut his route short of the end zone in that situation. But yeah, with Rob Bironas as the kicked we certainly should have kicked the field goal with 32 seconds to go.
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Every team has those questions and variables, but one of the reasons I doubt this team's likelihood to make the playoffs is because of how many we have. Most teams have a couple here or there, but the for the Cubs there are four offensive positions that are reliable (CF, RF, 2B, C) and only three if we trade Fuku. Outside of Marmol and Marshall, the entire bullpen is a question and there's only 2 rotation spots that are reliable (Demp and Wells). If everything pans out, we probably have another season like 08. If none of them go right, we probably struggle to win 60 games. My fear, though, is that too many have to go right than will for us to make the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong.
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Marshall's problems have never been talent or production related, they've been endurance related. Apparently he can't go past 150 innings, I think it is.
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I'd say his upside is that of a .350-.360 OBP, 10ish homers and 40-50 steals, while playing a GG caliber SS. That sounds a lot cheaper than trading for Jose Reyes. Reyes is a sure thing. HJ may or may not reach that ceiling. And if he does, it'll be 2-3 more years (at least).
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For the acquiring team? I don't think they'd be on the hook for the deferred money even if we made a straight-up trade. I think that's one of the differences between backloaded contracts and deferred money - with backloading, the money follows the contract, whereas with deferred money, the signing team is on the hook no matter what (unless there's an agreement the acquiring team will pay it).
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At a time when we can more easily afford it.
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$5 million in 2012 is cheaper than $5 million now. It also would be very advantageous if the team doesn't contend and Pena is traded mid-season. True, a team would only pick up $2.5 mil instead of $5 mil at the deadline. Could net us a better prospect, potentially.
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It's possible deferring Pena's salary could give us the flexibility to sign Webb, for example. That's pretty key for this team.
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It depends on injuries and whether guys meet expectations. All teams deal with that, but it's especially big for us. If Soriano gets hurt or is a .750 OPS guy, Ramirez is on and off the DL and Webb gets hurt or is ineffective after two years off, this team will likely struggle to contend. If Soriano can bounce back a bit, Ramirez can stay healthy and Webb can regain any of his previous form, this team could be pretty good. How Pena bounces back will determine a lot as well – whether he's 2010 Pena, 2009 Pena or 2008 Pena. I tend to think there are just too many questions that have to go right for us to be serious contenders, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.