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dew1679666265

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Everything posted by dew1679666265

  1. dew1679666265
    It wouldn't really surprise me if they traded Kosuke, though the recent rumors have been that they're leaning more toward keeping him.
  2. dew1679666265
    What will we do with the other of Kosuke and Byrd if we have an OF of Soriano/Colvin/Guyer? If we trade one of the two, is the other just going to be a bench player? I don't see that as likely at all. Plus, a Sori/Colvin/Guyer OF would be awful both offensively and defensively.
  3. dew1679666265
    Disappointing. He'd have made a nice addition for us, though I don't know what the comparables in our system would be to the guys the Os are giving up.
  4. dew1679666265
    The only way this makes any sense is if they increase the payroll to $100+ mil - it still doesn't make much sense, but at least there's some reason to it then. However, it's taken them 10 years to increase payroll by 33 million. They'd have to do the same thing in 2-3 now.
  5. dew1679666265
    I don't disagree that you should pay premium price for premium players, but my point is Werth is not a premium player. I've said before it could work out well for 2-3 years, but that's $15 mil of dead weight looming on your roster for 4 seasons. Teams like the Yankees and Red Sox can afford a couple of those or more, a team like the Cubs can afford one, but a team with a payroll south of $100 mil cannot have dead weight on their roster. With Werth, the Nats might hover around playoff contention while he's good. But they won't be able to give him much help while he's good and they'll have an albatross on their roster once he gets bad - and still won't have room to work around him with premium players. It looks better if they get their payroll over $100 mil and that might be part of their thinking, but I can't assume that when looking at the deal right now.
  6. dew1679666265
    No more than $1 million through 2015. However, Cot's shows the Nats' payroll at a little over $66 million last year. It's possible they bump that up to $80 million over the next couple of years, though. I still don't think they have any room for error, though.
  7. dew1679666265
    Werth alone is close to a quarter of their payroll. Three players will be almost half their payroll. They're going to have to go cheap in a number of spots to make that work out. They're looking at about $2 million on average filling out the rest of their roster - that's not much room for any other impact players. Werth better stay good for the majority of this contract, Zimmerman better stay good and Strasburg better stay healthy, because they won't have the financial room to bring in any other impact players.
  8. dew1679666265
    He's 29 in 9 days and has had one season better than a 4.24 xFIP - this year. His career xFIP is 4.30. However, he does have 7 K/9 compared to 2 BB/9. There's no way I'd give one of the better Cubs prospects for him, though, and that looks like what the Brewers did.
  9. dew1679666265
    The problem is this will cripple an already small payroll. Even if he's productive for 3 years, that's still 4 years of $15 million non-production. That's a ton if you don't have a high-end payroll. It'll severely limit any moves to improve the team they can make.
  10. dew1679666265
    I'd actually consider giving up a decent amount for Reynolds (nothing major, but more than scraps). He's 27, had a .381 wOBA in 2009 and horrid BABIP issues last year (.257 last year compared to .323 for his career). The biggest question is can he play first and how effectively? Interestingly, his BB rate and K rate have both steadily increased each year he's been in the majors. I don't know whether to take that as a good sign (he's walking more often) or a bad sign (he's striking out more every year).
  11. dew1679666265
    There's not guarantee Colvin will pan out, and so far I like what I've seen from Jackson more than Colvin - as far as peripherals go. As for Davis vs Gordon, I like Gordon's peripherals a lot more. He's far more patient and has shown an advanced skillset that Davis has not. I think Gordon is far more likely to reach his potential than Davis and I view Colvin as nothing more than a 4th OF as a ceiling. So in reality, I don't see that we're giving up that much for Gordon. Certainly more than we're giving up for Davis, but Gordon is the superior player.
  12. dew1679666265
    If all it takes is Colvin, that's fine with me. The way I figure it, though, is that the Royals don't have to trade Gordon and we'd have to give them reason to deal him. Colvin strikes me as a player Moore would love and he's expendable here and probably overvalued after last season.
  13. dew1679666265
    The price is what scares me with him. In Gordon's case, Dayton Moore loves guys like Colvin and there's a very real possibility he would value Colvin's skillset highly enough to center the trade around him and maybe a couple low level type guys. In Anderson's case, the Red Sox are much better than the Royals at valuing players and would likely keep Anderson rather than trade him for less than top notch value. Anderson might be the better option, but he'll cost more in prospects than it would probably be worth for a guy who may not even be ML ready yet.
  14. dew1679666265
    Both Soto and Castro are two of the best young players at their position. Soto's .385 wOBA was the best in the majors among catchers with at least 200 PAs. Soto will be 28 on opening day next year and is a catcher. He's not particularly young, and we're currently wasting his best years. Correct, but hopefully he'll still be an above average to good offensive catcher in his pre-30s years. He'll be past his best years, but should still be better than most catchers at that point.
  15. dew1679666265
    They've said they are still considering it, but I don't know that they will. Even it they don't, they're not getting max value from him but he could be a dominant reliever by then - which is still a plus. That I did, my bad. I figured I'd forget a guy or two.
  16. dew1679666265
    Both Soto and Castro are two of the best young players at their position. Soto's .385 wOBA was the best in the majors among catchers with at least 200 PAs. I agree entirely. I was more making fun that you thought we were also building around Marshall and Marmol. I didn't mean we'd be building around them, more that they'd still be positive assets to the team at that point.
  17. dew1679666265
    that's playing 3B. he would not have been a 2.1 and 2.3 WAR player if he'd been playing 1B during those years. plus the evaluation of him as a +8.6 run 3B in 2007 is questionable, given the scouting reports and the fact that he has been moved off of 3B. Didn't even think about the third base situation. Still, though, he was showing the ability to improve the only two full years he's had in the majors. Still room for improvement, but he's cheap and still pretty young.
  18. dew1679666265
    If I had to guess, I'd bet Hendry's focus has been on Pena all along. I don't really have any evidence to support it, I just get the feeling he's thrown out feelers on others, but has wanted Pena the whole time. And I'm ok with that if Gordon isn't an option. Pena/Davis are solid additions for next year and the future, I think.
  19. dew1679666265
    If this were to happen this would almost certainly make Alex Gordon instantly expendable, fwiw He'd be our ideal option, I think.
  20. dew1679666265
    I'd take either, to be honest. I think the upside for Johnson is a bit better and he'll be a bit cheaper (and more of a certainty to accept a 1 year deal), but you do make a good point on Pena's power ability. And I'm tending to talk too much about the first base situation too, I think.
  21. dew1679666265
    Nick Johnson is still out there as well. He's the best option if he could stay healthy, but that's a really big if. That's a gigantic if. In fact, it would be stunning if he did. Stunning if he stayed healthy for an entire year, sure. But if he could give us 133 games like he did in 2009, he'd likely be quite productive. We'd have to make sure we had depth (Kila, Davis, etc), but he'd also come very cheaply. That said, I wouldn't mind choosing Pena over him for the health certainty.
  22. dew1679666265
    Elite pitching is possible if guys like Cashner, Archer and Jackson develop and Wells stays productive. Also, just because we don't have a first baseman at the moment doesn't mean we won't. There are options out there, it's just a matter of management finding them and acquiring them.
  23. dew1679666265
    Both Soto and Castro are two of the best young players at their position. Soto's .385 wOBA was the best in the majors among catchers with at least 200 PAs.
  24. dew1679666265
    Nick Johnson is still out there as well. He's the best option if he could stay healthy, but that's a really big if.
  25. dew1679666265
    Both you and tfarks make good points, I withdraw the first point on my list. There's still a lot of stuff on there that should be concerning when you're overpaying for his peak production in the first place, though.
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