UK1679666180

It's not the number of pitches that gets a guy hurt, it's the stress of the pitches. Hernandez is frequently among the league leaders in numbers of innings pitched. He can throw 120+ a game and it'd be the equivalent of Zambrano and Prior throwing 90 because Hernandez throws a lot of off-speed stuff. Anyway, Leyland is the one who recommended to Jocketty to get Abraham Nunez, who up to this year looked like a scrub. One could argue that he's one the top three MVP's for the Cardinals. But, it would bother me that Leyland had a job once (in Colorado) and just quit. Anyway, no matter who manages the team you need good players to be successful. What was Livan's velocity in 97' & what was it after '97? He drove Livan into the ground with consistently throwing him for 150 pitch outings and did it with Jesus Sanchez with 147 pitches. No thanks... there's too much of a history of him wearing out pitcher's arms. Despite the promoting, when the Cubs get rid of Baker, this would be my main concern of Dierker as he kept his starters out there too long for my liking, though not as bad as Leyland did.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/bb/3332406 Infinite wisdom as usual from Dierker.

Damn it, the game I miss and Peoria breaks out offensively.

The Cubs owe more to me than sending Rusch and Perez out there every 5th day and every day for Perez. If there is a player that should've been pushed as a waiver trade it was Rusch. Of course, I'm not sure if he was placed on waivers, but he should've been. More than likely, he'll exercise his option and become a FA to pursue the chance to grab onto a #5 spot in a rotation. Unless, he feels no market for him or the Cubs give an impression that he is the leading candidate for the 5th spot. Btw, anyone noticing the job Ruhle is doing in Cincy with their pitchers?

When you're trying to win, you're trying to win. Rusch has been there all year and the Cubs owe it to him and their fans to keep him out there despite the results.

The feelings are mutual, it was just good to finally see Guzman & despite the L, I was impressed with the way he pitched. Hopefully, Harvey can end the year on a high note, it seems like he's wearing down and going thru the motions at this point, which is understandable given this is his 1st full season of pro ball. It was nice to see Fuld hitting off the tee an hour before the game while everyone was in the locker room. It appears he has the talent, work ethic, an approach.

Unfort. I will not be at tonight's Peoria game.

Lee-77 Pujols-57 Jones-31

Also, VORP and PRAA doesn't ignore that 20 IP difference it is an accumulative stat. If Clemens had those additional 20 innings of a greater production his VORP and PRAA would be that much greater than it already is. If Clemens had 20 less ininngs than he already has, it likely be closer to Carpenter's current VORP and PRAA. What dictated the the flucuation? Innings pitched. Yet, you're trying to say "why don't we ignore the poor outing by Carpenter?) I'm done with this argument as well, technically it is an opinionated answer stating Clemens has been the best pitcher in MLB, statistically it is a fact who the best pitcher is.

If that 20-30 innings would make up the statistical difference, I would as well. But, Clemens still has a higher VORP and pitching runs above avg. despite the drop in IP. So what? So you think it's as simple as giving the Cy Young Award to the guy with the best VORP every year? If it's that simple, then we won't be needing voters anymore. So you're willing to ignore the extra 4 or 5 games that Carpenter has pitched, but you won't ignore the 3.1 innings that didn't go so well back in April (we're talking about APRIL!!......... over the last 15 starts or so, Carpenter has actually been better than Clemens, I think). I wish it was that simple, it would be a hell of alot more accurate judging everything by VORP than something as dumb as wins for a pitcher or avg. and RBI for a hitter. I wish there wasn't any voters, they've been wrong more than enough times to question their validity, including selecting Clemens as Cy Young winner last year. Sure, I'm willing to ignore the inning difference b/c it doesn't make up the difference statistically between Clemens and Carpenter. The only way Clemens can have a higher a VORP/PRAA despite the 19 innings .1 difference (or just under 3 starts, not 4 or 5) is being that much better during his time frame. Clemens has a clear advantage in VORP and PRAA which tells me he has been more than slightly better than Carpenter.

If that 20-30 innings would make up the statistical difference, I would as well. But, Clemens still has a higher VORP and pitching runs above avg. despite the drop in IP.

The same reason Oswalt has been more successful than Clemens this year.......because those pitchers held the opponent to fewer runs than the opponent scored in those games. Now I have a question for you: If Clemens is getting 3.6 runs per game, but giving up 1.5 runs per game, then why is he winning fewer than half of his games? Well, there's a thing called variation. I'll break down the starts of Carpenter and Clemens... Just to prove how incorrect your argument is trying to defend one of the players you root for, which I think is the only reason behind your argument (being biased). The only reasons why someone would choose Carp. over Clemens, biased and incorrect logic. If you're biased you'll use incorrect logic and if you're not biased you're still using incorrect logic. Back to variation... Variation tells me that Clemens 15 starts where he rec'd 2 runs or less during the time he was out there. It also tells me that there 9 times when he had 0% chance of getting of the win, b/c the offense scored 0 runs while he was pitching. Also, he had 4 wins he was in line for, but the BP cost him. That leaves 13 wins he had no chance for b/c of the offense and BP. Carpenter had 8 starts of 2 runs or less. There was also 3 times when the offense no chance to win b/c they did not score while he was out on the mound. The bullpen has not blown an opportunity for Carpenter to pick up a win. There you have it, the reasoning for the win differential.. It doesn't get any clearer than that, use a team stat for an individual award and it'll get shot down. Carpenter has more wins, b/c his team put him in a better chance to win much more often than Clemens.

I think they'll have to get a quality defensive SS, of course, he'll have to hit as well. I'd still pursue Lugo before Furcal.

I think so as well, there were higher-ups in the Cubs organization there to see Angel. It still looked like he shortened follow-thru too much and didn't give his arm much of a chance to de-accelerate.

You didn't answer my question of how 4 Cards pitchers have more wins than Clemens and Marquis only have 1 less win than Roger? There has to be a reason behind that.

For those wondering about Guzman... His FB topped at 94, his FB sat at 92, his curve sat at 74, and his change was at 82. He displayed all 3 of them as + pitches, he pitched better than the box score indicated, there wasn't much solid contact on him except on a couple of occasions. Poor defense as well. I left during the btm of the 7th. Blevins looked solid despite some command issues, if he could add a notch or two to his FB (he definitely has the ability to gain muscle) with his curve I think he can be Ohman type mold. Fuld just missed a HR foul, Harvey just got under one, even on a pop-up you got the feel for his power. The Peoria hitters were baffled by the Beloit pitcher, his stuff wasn't that overwhelming, he just had late movement and put it where he wanted. Despite the numbers, I was impressed with Guzman's outings.

I'm still rooting as the Horny Wagon treks on!

Wins are only as good as the offense around him. There's a reason why 4 STL starters have more wins than Clemens with Marquis 1 win behind and that isn't b/c of Carpenter's or Clemens' pitching ability. My "what if" stats told me otherwise. Please explain why 4 Cards' starter have more wins than Clemens and why Marquis is only 1 behind? If you put a trained monkey with the Cards offense it'd have a better record than the monkey with the astros offense.

IMB, you'll usually see a direct correlation between VORP and PRAA/RSAA. You won't see that as often with pitchers especially once you get beyond the two starters b/c Win Shares overvalues a closer, IMO. If you have VORP and PRAA stating pitcher A is the better than pitcher B, you know what the conclusion is.

They're the same thing to me, b/c the 43 you mentioned for Clemens as listed by BP is technically PRAA, not RSAA.

ERA is a rate stat, PRAA is an accumulative stat. A far better stat than Wins, Losses, ERA, CG, etc or "whatever" less accurate stat the writers will use to determine the Cy Young. If there's a better stat than that, I'd like to see it. I think Vorp is up there as well.

Based on what? Based on PRAA (Pitching Runs Above Average)

To update: Clemens has saved 43 runs over an avg. pitcher while Carpenter has saved 32 runs.

I heard 60 pitches as well concerning Guzman, of course that was also when they were going to get Berg some extended work.

So what do you think UK, what is the biggest problem to deal with this offseason? Players or management? We've got holes on the roster, but I'm not confident in our management no matter who they bring in to play. Well, we've found they don't have the players to win on the current roster. I don't care who was the manager, it would not have mattered this year. To answer your question, it's both, they both share equal blame and equal determination for improvement. I think it's incorrect to only blame Dusty and not blame Hendry and vice versa. As much as I disagree with Dusty's belief system towards carelessness of pitchers, veteran bias, in-game strategy, etc, I look at Hendry's decision (I'm not sure if it was him or Andy) to cut the International scouting as well as focusing on issues that would determine the outcome of the '05 season (Sosa). Regardless, if the upper management forced his hands into trading Sosa, you can't sit back and let the quality replacements go to other teams in the process. I think this indecision of the start of FA limited their chances of getting a LF'er and a more quality RF'er as well as the pen, that doesn't have to be getting Percival or Benitez, but simple middle relief. I think both Hendry and Baker have used flawed philosophies and that's where everything starts and snowballs. I'll never question Hendry's hard work, everything I've seen him related to has been a tremendous work ethic and desire to improve the team and I'm sure it's been worse on him than all of the Cubs fans combined. But... To use a baseball analogy; You spend countless hours in the cage trying to improve your swing, the work ethic is there, but if you don't have a plan (or using flawed mechanics while trying to improve your swing) or you have a flawed plan you won't get anything done. I'd put my trust in Dayton Moore as GM and see where that leads, if you want the honest truth and I'd assume he'd bring in a new manager. I hope he'd keep Stockstill and Oneri.