UK1679666180

He's a decent 25th man, probably best suited for a defensive replacement. Anything more than that is a mistake. . And that's what he was signed to be And he's starting today because??? A)It is a mistake B)There is no one better who can play 2B who's on the bench Yes, especially when there was a better backup on the roster for the bulk of the time Neifi was performing poorly at SS. Neifi has done more harm than good this year, partially b/c baker has no idea of how to use him and b/c he doesn't have the ability to be anything more than the last guy off the bench.

He's a decent 25th man, probably best suited for a defensive replacement. Anything more than that is a mistake. This is someone who has an OBP below .300 this year, starting and hitting 2nd today. You look at his career numbers to get a better gauge of what he will likely do. It doesn't always follow a parallel line, but is much more accurate than using the smaller sample size. He's been a disappointment this year, started off nice, cooled off even worse. The Cubs would've been better off playing Cedeno than Neifi with the execption for about 3 weeks. His defense can't overcome the fact he hits like a good hitting pitcher.

It was at scout.com not fanball, when I first mentioned it where he would've likely seen it, but came up with awhile back on the ESPN boards. He definitely tweaked what I had created, but I respect what he does. I do know, that either he was working on it prior to me or the likely scenario, he modified it and advanced it. But, there's no doubt in my mind what I created was based only from what I thought could come from it. When I first came up with it on the ESPN board late in '02 or early '03, nothing even close to it was around.

I came with that formula long before Aaron did, he just adjusted the figures and added park factors to it. But, I have a thread at Fanball (I believe that's where it's at) and I spoke of the formula and not too long later, Gleeman shines it up and it becomes a useful stat. I think I gave it to Bukie on the ESPN boards as a easy way to figure something close to EqA w/out the park factors.

Oddly enough, there will come a point when these retro ballparks will be like the cookie cutters of the late 60s-early 70s.

While I'm not sold on Murton, he definitely deserved better than this based on his small sample of outstanding production and the current state of the OF, which is weak. They had no better RH bat off the bench and right now, I feel more comfortable with Murton in the lineup over Burnitz and Patterson (if the Cubs had a Cf'er). Lawton has been a disappointment as well since joining the Cubs. I don't like the move.

I wish I could remember the phrase I used back in the late 90's about the perpetual cycle of mediocrity. This might be where we are stuck again. This is what happens when you go on a never ending quest for proven veterans. It's inefficient management. This Cubs team will likely finish around 81 wins, there's a 3 year window where less than 10 wins or losses will run parallel with avg. play and missed playoffs (exception:winning the division with 88 wins). They'll never likely have an extreme upswing if having to rely of FA to improve the team, it'll be treading water hoping for a career year.

They're in an odd window, they traded all of their top position prospects for improvements (Choi, Hill, Harris, etc). But, unlike other teams who have been successful doing that, they did not have the depth to have other top position players come up thru the system and trade off the second tier who might be a top 5 prospect in another weaker system. It just left them trading for quality players with salaries representative of a player with 6+ years of service time and no one else to come up thru the pipeline. To compensate for the increase in payroll, they have cut the budget for international scouting, been drafting lower b/c of a better record, combined with having to sign FAs since no one can come up thru the system and losing draft picks. Despite the winning and cuts in spending, Atlanta cut the ML payroll before the scouting budget, the Cubs went the opposite route, we're watching the byproduct of it.

Shows the dominance of the Braves as well, as far as being to develop a farm system despite the "pressures" of winning every year. Or, maybe they go hand in hand? I'd like to think they go hand in hand.

I'd probably give them a minumum of 2 skipped starts a year, that would give the spot starter 10 starts and would require going with a 7 man bullpen at various points, Interleague away games would be ideal for NL teams. 8-10 days rest is similar to amount of rest around the AS break, skip a start and you have that 8-10 days rest. Not reducing IP, just giving the pitcher a longer recovery at various points during the year. Ideally, late May/early June and August would be ideal, if you can do it in Sept, you do it in Sept. as well.

You needed proof to validate your assumption? Common sense would've saved you time. :)

Various times they do things different than I would do. So what? Nothing unusual, every game I can usually find something the manager has done that I would do differently, some more than others. Him being a manager doesn't sway or change my beliefs on how it should be done or make my opinion less valid. Think LaRussa didn't go against the grain with his managerial moves when he was a rookie manager? No such things as splitting hairs when it comes to resting SPs. It depends on the game situation, will he be going on 4 or 5 days rest? how well rested in the pen? How many pitches did he throw his last time out? Will there be an off-day tomorrow? But, ideally I'd like to keep it around 90 pitches if the game has been decided and you have a rested pen. If you think my ideals surrounding protecting pitchers is extreme, you haven't seen my views on using a spot starter at various points during a year.

If the opportunity presents itself to take a starting pitcher out early (around 100 pitches) b/c the game has been decided, I'd take him out in April, May, June, July, August, Sept., and/or October. There is a clear difference between game that haven't been decided and games that have been. Cruising or not, it is better for the pitcher both in the short and long-term to get him out as early as possible once the game has been decided. There is no such thing as being conditioned to throw 90 to 95 pitches. The body simply doesn't work like a machine. The more you throw while fatigued, the stronger you get, you don't increase a pitcher's stamina extending him to 120. Typically, pitchers start feeling fatigued around 75 pitches (not including warmup and between innings). Based on PCs, Carpenter hasn't likely been abused, it doesn't take away the fact that in the outings mentioned I would've wanted him to be pulled earlier than he was. I can look at Cox, LaRussa, Baker, Gardenhire, Torre, Yost, Manuel, etc. and similar instances, and...?

In that 11-3 game, it was 7 IP but he was near 110 pitches, why not pull him and inning earlier and keep him around 95-100? 4 games I would would've taken Carpenter an inning earlier: 6/20 6/25 7/1 7/28 That should be considered a luxury to take out a pitcher early b/c of the game of score (assuming winning team). Yes, LaRussa should've taken out Carpenter early when he had the chance, every manager should. No pitcher likes being pulled early espec. when they are pitching well, but they'll accept the decision. Once again, wear and tear on a pitcher is accumulative, if you get the chance to rest a starter early, take it! Heck, I would've called up Reyes or another AAA starter and skip various starts for the pitchers at diff. points of the year. That's not taking things at face value.

I think a closer is needed, I'd go after Ryan first and then Wagner. It would turn the pen into an above avg. one assuming they avoid getting burnt out in the week by mismanagement. I think two OF'ers are needed, One of them has to be Giles, LH bat, middle of the order, be a heck of a battle between his love for the West Coast and other teams going after him. I'd probably trade for another OF'er. I'd like to see Millwood brought in, less money spent, less years committed over Burnett. As far as SS, I'd rather see them trade for someone like Lugo, who'l more than likely be on the market, given his 5.9mil salary and BJ Upton Then, I'd use Cedeno in a utility role who sub for Lugo and Walker at 2B. There's about 25 mil spent, less than what the Cubs have freed up financially. Then, they can use to improve their scouting budget, especially internationally!

Trust him all you want, I tend to look at issues at face value.

Didn't Alex Sanchez test positive earlier this year? And Manny Alexander.

I said based on when the game has already been decided, he has left Carpenter out there too long several times. You go thru his game log and he was out there beyond the point he needed to be out there, he'll likely have a higher level of fatigue around 95 pitches, not to the point where's adjusted his mechanics or overthrowing, but he's left him out there too long. If you respond, "he's trying to save his pen", it'll be just as easy to check the game log and find pitchers who did not pitch the night before. To me, that would be the safer route to go during the course of the season as the wear and tear is accumulative.

No, it means he is efficent with his pitches throwing deep into a ballgame that doesn't equate to him not being abused. The only way you can tell if a pitcher is or isn't being abused is thru sight. I haven't watched all of his starts, so I can't you tell if he's been left put there while fatigued, the low pitch counts decrease the odds but guarantee nothing. You can tell if a manager/PC is being careless by leaving a pitcher in there despite the score. Baker was terrible with this w/Zambrano last year and it appears LaRussa has been with Carpenter at times. Which games have you seen Carpenter be "abused" in? Because as you bolded above, the only way to tell if a pitcher is being abused is through sight. Marquis is being abused in every sense of the word, but I don't really care, because he sucks anyway. Based on pitch counts, based on personally seei ng Carpenter pitch almost every game this year, based on Pitcher Abuse Points, and based on Carpenter's dominance in innings 7 thru 9, I think it's fair to say that Carpenter isn't being abused. We're in August, people. There's a month and a half to play. I honestly believe that Carpenter will be coddled in September. But as pointed out earlier, the Cards don't believe in "taking the foot off of the gas pedal" just because you're ahead in the race. I think you lose your edge when you do that. Like I said, it's looked to me like Morris and Marquis have been more abused than Carpenter. So do you put them on a short leash, too? Pretty soon you've got your entire starting rotation only going 6 inning, and I'll be here trying to defend Larussa when his bullpen is shot. It's a no-win situation. The Cards' coaching staff has had (for the most part) an injury-free pitching staff for almost 2 years in a row, and have had the most effective pitching staff for 2 years in a row. Yet some still think they're being mis-used. I think I'll go with Larussa/Duncan on this one, but thanks for the advice. :wink: Who said Carpenter was being abused? I've only watched Carpenter a handful of times and it hasn't come to mind that he is being left out there too long. Quit trying to stir when there is nothing there to stir. As far as being to be cautious (you can never coddle a pitcher) with Carpenter in Sept., if you're worried about them burning out the pen by limiting starting pitchers, that have roster expansion. If they can burn out a pen with 7-10 relievers, god bless them. Why defend him if he does something wrong?

Watching Marquis is painful in a non-biased way. He has no idea of where the release point is on his breaking pitch, he has too much arch in his back and I've never been fond of the hesitation during his delivery. That's even before mentioning his mental state.

I think teams were wise not doing anything, maybe you could make a case for more teams not going after Lawton, but other than that I don't think teams "sold the farm" for a shot in the dark.

If Toronto wants to get someone someone to overpay for Hudson, I'm sure bellhorn would be an adequate low-budget 2B for Riccardi so they can address other areas (pitching).

No, it means he is efficent with his pitches throwing deep into a ballgame that doesn't equate to him not being abused. The only way you can tell if a pitcher is or isn't being abused is thru sight. I haven't watched all of his starts, so I can't you tell if he's been left put there while fatigued, the low pitch counts decrease the odds but guarantee nothing. You can tell if a manager/PC is being careless by leaving a pitcher in there despite the score. Baker was terrible with this w/Zambrano last year and it appears LaRussa has been with Carpenter at times. Ahh, I knew there was a reason I watched every game this year, save a few! Given that criteria, I can tell you that Marquis has definitely been abused this year, Morris not too far behind him. The last time I saw Carp fatigued, working slowly, or laboring was his blow up against Philly in April. I only trust my eyes in this regard, I put my trust into a PC if I'm unable to watch the game. But, I've seen so many pitchers abused at the HS level in cold weather.

No, it means he is efficent with his pitches throwing deep into a ballgame that doesn't equate to him not being abused. The only way you can tell if a pitcher is or isn't being abused is thru sight. I haven't watched all of his starts, so I can't you tell if he's been left put there while fatigued, the low pitch counts decrease the odds but guarantee nothing. You can tell if a manager/PC is being careless by leaving a pitcher in there despite the score. Baker was terrible with this w/Zambrano last year and it appears LaRussa has been with Carpenter at times.

The Horny wagon will cont. to march on. It is now adapt to cold climates.