Jason Ross

I'll admit, missed the injury on Kirk! I saw the gamelogs, didn't check the injury history. Will admit my misses. Beyond that, nothing is "gibberish". His defense was incredibly poor between ages 21 and 22. And he barely played in his age-21 season, he played a whopping 7 games. To date, he's caught 7 more games than Ballesteros has at the MLB level at this age. 7 games. Secondly, a screen grab is even less good than an actual picture! At least a picture would be a bump up in quality. MiLB streams are on their best of days described as "potato quality" to begin with, when you add in a screen grab it becomes even less in terms of picture fidelity. All of this is because from a random screen grab you think he's too fat? C'mon dude. That's the lowest level stuff. You have to know that, right? This is a seriously horrible leg to stand on. Again, there are almost no catchers who catch games at the age of 21. Every year there is like, one maybe if you're lucky, two guys. This year there is two. Last year no catchers aged 21 caught an inning, and only two were 22 (one of whom is Francisco Alvarez, this will be important later). In 2022, only two caught an inning below the age of 23 - and an important note, Francisco Alvarez was a data point in 2023 and the year prior 2022. This means that in the last three seasons, five different catchers in MLB baseball have caught innings below the age of 22; one of whom was Tyler Soderstrom who is not a catcher, and the others are superstar prospects like Carter Jensen, Francisco Alvarez and Samuel Basallo. Do we not yet see what a ridiculous standard you're setting off of a screen grab? Again, if you want to worry about his defense, I think there are things you can point to: he's thrown out a shockingly low number of runners this year and it's not because he has bad arm strength but because his footwork is bad. This plays out on balls in the dirt. But he's also 21 and MLB catchers are notorious for taking a long time as evidenced by his contemporaries. Other people his body size have shown recent success in the MLB level. So please, if you want to worry about his defense, make it about things that matter; discuss his footwork, discuss his blocking. Stop taking poor quality screen grabs and making a mountain out of it. It's lazy stuff and you're better than that. I don't mean that in a rude way; I mean it that we are all better than using a screen grab of an MiLB game to make a point. Let's discuss his baseball and not make random assumptions about his weight because a screen grab made him look a specific way. Look, here are two more screen grabs from a week ago. The first makes him look much worse than the second and both come from the same HR trot. But again, notice how you can barely make out his face! If this is what we have to say whether or not he will or will not make it as an MLB catcher, than we need to do better.

You must have a scale of you can definitively say he is bigger than the spring. Can you provide more evidence other than "look at this one photo!"? We know that camera can make people appear bigger than they are, as well, awkward running photos can distort a body. You're making a lot of claims here and there is a large difference from vibes and proof. If it's the photo thing, I think we should stop making those claims. What we *think* we see is below the burden of proof here, IMO. On the Kirk thing; Kirk caught 7 games at age 21. Then got sent back for another full Triple-A season at age 22 when he was called up for 40 games at the end of the next season, his aged 22 year. You sure that's the hill we want to die on? 7 games? Using OAA he was not a positive defensive catcher in either 2020, or 2021, grading our poorly in every category except pop time. His first positive defensive grades comes in 2022, his age-23 season. So once again, I feel like you're being incredibly harsh because he isn't photogenic. Alejandro Kirk has proven that awkward shapes can be successful, and we know it takes a long time to develop catchers. Ballesteros value does hinge on his defensive ability, but he is not at an age where anything definitive has been said about his defense. Once again, he could not catch an MLB game for another year and a half and he would still make his catching debut prior to Adley Rustchman, who has been seen as the most ready-made college catcher in a decade.

I would be a little surprised if Pat's replacement wasn't Len, honestly. The Cubs love to use sentimentality and good will to hide overall spending patterns. And buying out Len Kasper from the White Sox (as well as him not having to supplant his family) feels like a really easy way for the Cubs to eventually not spend money on payroll one offseason.

I would guess that it probably hasn't most years. But do wonder how the wind is playing with that this year. The Cubs have had one of the highest pull% in baseball this year and the wind at Wrigley has been brutal. So on days when you're hitting into the wind, and add in a little extra distance, I think the Cubs are probably getting dinged more than normal. I doubt it's a massive reason on it's own (distance) but when you start adding in other factors (wind) I suspect it's somewhere in that data set hiding as a factor itself. In terms of pull/not-pull with xData, the Nationals have the fewest pull events are are underhitting their xData by .20 points, Pittsburgh is 2nd worst and is under hitting their xData by 20 points, and the Angels are under hitting theirs by .20 points and are 3rd lowest. In terms of highest pull, the Royals, Astros and Diamonbacks are all over hitting their xData by .5+ points. These teams are 2nd, 3rd and 4th in pull events. Only the Cubs, at the top, are under hitting theirs.

I like xData in that I think it can help us identify weirdness. Where my issues with xData is in that it treats all balls the same. I had recently done an article on Shaw and the importance of pulling balls, and used his 377 foot flyball to CF off Clase as a framing device. Similarly hit balls to CF saw 0 HR's league wide and just 5 hits. IF you hit the same distance and EV to LF, you find 16 home runs and 5 balls in play. xBA will treat both the same, but we know pulling the ball gives you a far better outcome. I'd hope that sometime we can get some directional expected data thrown in and I think it would help parse out some of the weirdness. For the Cubs, I think it's also important to note that pulling the ball is very good, but they have the deepest LF/RF down the line at Wrigley. Which also throws a wrench into xData.

There isn't a single Cub player who is actually out performing their xwOBA on the season. Which is weird, the Cubs pull the baseball a lot and hit enough in the air. My guess is that this is a product of Wrigley Field and the issues with the wind, but it's simply a guess. The best way to out play your xwOBA is pulling the baseball in the air. So I'm guessing league wide there is enough shift in this thought that they are doing between that expected data says they should. But again, mostly guessing.

A few weeks ago I would have told you no way. Today, I think he's got the inside track as of today because he has this historic run of run prevention on his side. When you have "first since" or something historic attached to your name, it really sways voters. He can't keep up a sub 1.5 ERA much longer - it's nearly impossible, but he's also been so good (18th in the league in shadows RV, for example) that he can probably be just "good" and have a good shot.

Yeah, came out last night he'd take today off, they have a scheduled off day tomorrow and then will re-eval into Friday.

Busch is nearly 40% worse than league average against LHP. Only 6 1b in the entire league who have at least 30 PA's against LHP have been worse than Busch. He is 41st of 47th. By starting Michael Busch against left handed pitching, you would be starting one of the worst options in the league against LHP while playing meaningful games in September. That is an objectively bad idea. Even if you want to play the "he'll never get better if he doesn't try" card, not only is this not the time, exactly how much better do we think he's going to get? Do we think he's going to go from "one of the absolute worst" to "above average?" That seems pretty unlikely. Even if he gets to "average" he will still be generally a platoon case, as platoon hitters are better than average.

This reddit thread explains it with included references and citations. The TLDR however is that it uses historical data and historically HBP's correlate higher with runs scored regardless of luck. As the thread explains, it's similar to a bloop single; sure the xBA may have been low and you may consider that luck based, but a single still weighs more than other categories in run scoring historically. Whatever we assume is luck based is immaterial to wOBA.

They all count the same.

Good attempt from Nico. What an annoying hit from Kim that was.

I'm the same dork I was 20 years ago when I signed up for PSD. Just one who better understands his horsefeathers. Also, far more chill; old me was bit too much fire for my own good. There's nothing like a gaggle of middle schoolers 8 hours a day to chill you the horsefeathers out.

Nice pitch to Albies.

I'll delete this if he blows it, but if there's a positive, it's that since August 3rd, despite some base runners, he's running a 2.07 xFIP. So I think the scuffle only seems worse than it really is.

Appreciate it! This was a fun PA to dive into this afternoon. I find more and more than my favorite plate appearances aren't *the* at-bat of the game, but the little ones that lead up to the moment. I can't tell if that's baseball-hipster of me, equivalent of being *that guy* who tells you he doesn't like a bands' best known work but likes their before-stuff when they hadn't "sold out" and were just some underground indie group, me being a bit of a discerning baseball nut, or some combination of the two, but I really like those small little building blocks and the stories that kind of go missed.

Appreciate it! I was actually surprised when I dove into the numbers. You are just so accustomed to thinking "why the hell would you bunt with two strikes?" that I never thought I'd come to the conclusion I did. It's not something that I think should happen often, but there's more than enough data here that suggests...maybe it should happen just a little more often for a few guys.

I like it better when the Cubs score the runs and the Braves don't score the runs.

Yeah he's a cool dude. Plays in our sister league (or at least did, it's been a hot minute) in Kentuckiana. Short jump from Lexington - there's a handful of guys who have moved between the two areas.

I've played adult league with Rusch.

Just my random former Cubs. No rhyme or reason.

Yeah, I thought so too. Age 22 season in Iowa, 25% K%, 128 wRC+, .230 ISO. No batted ball data, but those are some good numbers.

All Hail!

This is blatantly untrue. League SP: 21.6 K%, 7.8 BB%, 89. 6exit velocity, 41.5 hard hit%, 8.9 barrel%, 94.1 velocity, 12.3 HR/FB League RP: 22.6 K%, 9.3 BB%, 89mph exit velocity, 39,5 hardhit%, 8 barrelt%, 94.7 velocity, 11 HR/FB The *only* thing it is easier to do against relievers is take a walk. Hitters are doing everything else worse against relievers than starting pitching.