.jpg.900f6d1bc80a5a156f3ba09ea0e4b3d7.jpg)
Jason Ross
-
Posts
6,574 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
49
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Jason Ross
-
Absolutely. From an Astros standpoint this is a terrible contract. They have to pay the posting fee on the entire contract and have almost no upside - they either assume the entire deal if Imai is bad and if he's great, he's gone in a year. It's money and MLB orgs shouldn't care, but just logistically speaking, it's a bad contract from these aspects.
-
And they might. But they aren't likely signing most of those players. Unless yuo're interested in Shota Imanaga for the next 5 years? Maybe 38 year old Jameson Taillon?
-
The team is currently losing: Nico Hoerner (2b), Seiya Suzuki (RF/DH), Ian Happ (LF), Jameson Taillon (SP), Matthew Boyd (SP), Carson Kelly (C) and much of their BP. How many more starting players do you think the team can replace in a single offseason?
-
The Cubs traded a Christan Franklin and a lottery ticket for Soroka. They didn't overpay.
-
When have the Cubs overpaid in picks and IFA money under Hoyer?
-
Far closer to Shota than I expected.
-
There is no chance that the Cubs viewed this as "Imai or bust". So I don't think you'll have to worry. It might be Zac Gallen whom you may not feel is a high-end starter, but I think the Cubs will bring in a starter they view as a high-end guy.
-
It's not the AAV. They have the AAV. Its the opt out. They can't handle another FA next year.
-
This is an insane contract structure - the Cubs couldn't match it and I don't blame them. Much like Michael King - an opt out next year has to be a non-starter.
-
-
Good for the Astros. Good evaluation team. Bummer it's not the Cubs - lots of options remaining but that one stings from a personal level because I really liked him.
-
I'm not super worried about where he ranks league wide, myself. League RHP SP's were at 94.6mph last year. It was 94.3 mph in 2023 when he was the 6th best SP based on fWAR. It's pretty moot. His issue is shape.
-
First off, no, Zac Gallen's velocity wasn't the "lowest of his career". He was at 93.0 in 2019, 93.2 in 2020, and 93.4 in 2021. Last year's 93.5 is the exact same it was during his best season in 2023, when he was the 6th best SP. His velocity has been shockingly consistent, never deviating a full MPH from highest high to his lowest low. It's a bit on the below average side but velocity isn't king as much as you're acting. Velo can be nice, but velo does not equate K's or whiffs. We'll get a good look at that with Phil Maton who throws well below average for a RP and yet was in the 100th percentile in whiff rate. Yes. My opinion on Imai's contract has not changed. He'll get $20+m aav. I do think it could be a sliding contract like Shota's, but it'll be a supersized version of it, like Zumach had the other day were 5/$100m could be a 3-year deal with an opt out or an 8-year deal type of a thing. It won't be the closest. Kikuchi was slated to sign by January 2nd when he came over and signed on the 2nd.
-
Valdez is a much better pitcher now, and with his ground ball tendencies, likely has FIP beater profiles that will extend him longer into his contract. Gallen could be good again, Valdez already is good, so I don't think they belong in the same tier. My concerns with Valdez are a lot around how much of a turd move it was to throw at your own catcher mid-game (I don't buy the explanation) and what that might mean. I don't know the guy, and I don't know how teams will rate that, but it raises from red flags for me.
-
Zac Gallen was the 6th best SP based on fWAR two years ago - we have to be holistic - Savant is awesome but there's a lot of things we should look at. He fell off recently, but that seems to be a shape issue; his velocity has been fine. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Gallen isn't my top-of-the-list guy, but it hasn't been very long since the guy was elite-elite and it seems very possible a good pitching team can snap the fastball shape back through biomechanics and pitch development. From a Cub perspective what Gallen does well is exactly what the Cubs do well in terms of teaching. I'll also say this about Imai and the high-guy here - we don't have to land Imai. There are a bunch of really good SP's the Cubs can get; Imai isn't a savior. He's got a good look to him, but it might not land.
-
Not really. Imai isn't really a pitch lab guy; he has pitches and I don't think there's a ton to add. Maybe you get a cutter in there, tweak the changeup and keep it developing but he's mostly got the mix down. This is a question of eval. How do you evaluate the reverse slider? What will his fastball do at the MLB level from that arm slot? If you're a strict pitch model team you'll probably hate the slider as modeling as we know it will hate that pitch. His fastball won't be entirely overpowering at 95mph and hasn't been a big whiff pitch. Flip side, the fastball is close to Joe Ryan with extra velo and the slider has great whiff data on it. It's not far off from Yesevage's breaker and it was great in short sample.
-
From Lance Brodzowski's Substack Email:
-
I would guess that this puts the Giants out. They have been saying they wouldn't be punching at the top of the SP market for weeks and getting Mahle seems to affirm that.
-
I'll preface this with saying that I know this is a conspiracy theory and I have nothing to back it up but: I kind of wonder if the Cubs and Boras have a little bit of an agreement here that the Cubs interest in Imai/Okamoto won't really be leaked by Boras in his normal thing and in exchange for that, they're being allowed to be played up for other Boras clients (Gallen, Alonso, Bregman). I have no idea how these things work on the back end, but their interest in some of these guys feels spotty when Imai and Okamoto always felt more likely in terms of fit and finish. And with their posting dates so close, the Cubs could concievably announce both at the same time which would probably cause a pretty major buzz. Like I said, conspiracy theory. It's a tin-foil hat thing that I know remains far-fetched and I don't think it's really what's going down.
-
Eh, it is what it is. In the end, the off-season isn't the entertainment, so it's whatever for me. They can take as long as they want; I'd rather they not add in artificial deadlines. With NPB players I kind of get it because their teams need to know what's going on if they're leaving. But again, I don't think "want" is the word Id go for. "Has to". These guys have to sign before those days.
-
Not sure it's always about want. Cease and Alonso have signed. These two just have deadlines and the other two dont. The market is slow.
-
2nd. Okamoto the 4th. Both are Boras clients.
-
-
I'll remain on the record that I think Tatsuya Imai is one of the best SPs on the market. I do think there is some inherent risk in his control and his pitch mix, but I'll remain bummed if he isn't here, regardless. So you wont catch that from me. I've been the high-man here and I'll remain that if he's in Chicago or Philadelphia or wherever.
-
Bingo. His fastball shape has taken some gut punches recently. Arizona isn't known as a great organization when it comes to pitching, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him regain most of what he was with an organization who is much better in that aspect. He's not on the top of my list at all, but I also can see the arguments for why the Cubs would like him.
