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Jason Ross

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  1. Jason Ross
    I really want to root for him. I think he's gotten a bit of an unfair wrap since draft day. Not only was the 2020 draft nearly impossible with all of the added hurdles in an already difficult draft, he's had so much bad luck that is none of his fault. Howard seems like a good kind of a dude and hope he finally stays healthy and figures it out.
  2. Jason Ross
    Major League Baseball's Spring Breakout will provide fans a chance to get a glimpse of their team's best and brightest prospects. For the Cubs, the inaugural event couldn't be coming at a better time. What will the lineup look like? And for whom should you watch? Predicting the Cubs' Breakout Lineup: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF James Triantos, 2b Matt Shaw, 3b Owen Caissie, RF Haydn McGeary, DH BJ Murray, 1b Moises Ballesteros, C Jefferson Rojas, SS Kevin Alcantara, LF Starting Pitcher: Cade Horton While the game is ultimately a mere exhibition, creating an "all-star" lineup of Cubs prospects was a fun project. A few of these players feel like locks in the above slots, as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, Jefferson Rojas and Matt Shaw are all in camp as non-roster-invitees, and are among the best in the entire system. I did consider starting Shaw at second, but with how much he's been working at third base, figured the team would want to keep him working there. I could see a situation wherein Murray gets the nod at third and Shaw at second, or even shortstop, but think the Cubs will give Triantos a start and this was the best way to make that happen. When and where possible, as well, I also tried to defer to players expected to start at higher levels of the system. On the mound, Horton is the logical start. He's the best prospect in the system (and arguably the best, period), and deserves the honor to lead the Breakout team onto the field. Horton won't pitch long, however, and I expect the Cubs to give as many players as possible a chance to play in the game. That goes for the offensive players, too, so even though prospects like Pablo Aliendo and Christian Franklin may not start, they should all get appearances. What to watch for: This section could really just be all about the top prospects, but instead, I'm going to try to focus on some of the second- and third-tier players. I'm really interested to see Porter Hodge, whom I wrote about earlier this offseason, on the mound. His breaking stuff is some of the best in the system, and hopefully he shows some improved control. In the same vein, former third-round pick Drew Gray, who could be in line for a real breakout season, should get into the game. The lefty has mid-rotation stuff, but still is working through control and command issues after his professional career essentially started with Tommy John surgery. We're getting to a point where it's "sink or swim" time for Kohl Franklin; who absolutely looks the part but just hasn't found enough strikes. With a strong spring and start to his 2024, perhaps Franklin can finally cash in on the promise he flashes. Moving away from the mound, someone like Pablo Aliendo, who like Gray has "2024 Breakout" written all over him, will be fun to see in the game. Likely catching the second half, watch for Aliendo's impressive raw power to show itself. Speaking of power, I'm thrilled to see a late-round selection like Haydn McGeary get into this game. From a personal standpoint, McGeary had committed to my alma mater (Kentucky) out of Colorado Mesa University. His story of being a D-2 prospect-cum-draft success story has been really fun to watch--almost as fun as when McGeary sends baseballs into orbit. Lastly, Christian Franklin has apparently been putting in a lot of work and time in the weight room. There's always been fourth-outfielder upside in his game, and he has the makeup to stick in that kind of role even if it's all he can be, but this could be the year he really busts onto the scene. He might not have the upside of Crow-Armstrong, but could be a sneaky useful option for the Cubs in 2025 and beyond, off the bench. With the Cubs Breakout Team set to take the field in around a week's time, who are you excited to see take the field? Did I forget to talk about someone? And what do you think the lineup will be? Let us know in the comment section below! View full article
  3. Jason Ross
    More information about "Previewing the Chicago Cubs' Spring Breakout Game: Roster, Lineup Prediction, Favorites"
    On Fri., Mar. 15, the Chicago Cubs' Breakout Team will take on the future stars from their crosstown rivals, the Chicago White Sox. The game will be broadcast through ESPN+ and the Marquee Broadcast Network, next Friday at 4 PM Central. This will be a great chance for everyone to get to see the best prospects from each team. First, let's talk quickly about who might stand out for the South Siders. Chicago White Sox Preview: Entering the Breakout games, the White Sox farm system has not received many plaudits, generally being ranked among the bottom five in baseball. Recently, Keith Law of The Athletic ranked them as low as 28th. Despite their low rankings as a system, the White Sox Breakout roster does have a few interesting players expected to play, headlined by 2021 first-round selection and current top prospect, shortstop Colson Montomery. Sox 2023 first-rounder Jacob Gonzalez and switch-hitting catcher Edgar Quero (the jewel of last summer's Lucas Giolito-and-Reynaldo López trade) will also highlight the roster. Chicago Cubs Preview: The Cubs' system, unlike that of the Sox, has been on the rise in recent years, being ranked as high as number one by FanGraphs's Eric Logenhagen. The Cubs have drafted and traded well in recent years, and their Breakout roster will showcase many of their top prospects, featuring 11 of NSBB's top-20 prospects from this spring. Included on the roster are the top four prospects in the system: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Owen Caissie and Matt Shaw. The game will be a fun way to view the Cubs' prospects all in one game. Predicting the Cubs' Breakout Lineup: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF James Triantos, 2b Matt Shaw, 3b Owen Caissie, RF Haydn McGeary, DH BJ Murray, 1b Moises Ballesteros, C Jefferson Rojas, SS Kevin Alcantara, LF Starting Pitcher: Cade Horton While the game is ultimately a mere exhibition, creating an "all-star" lineup of Cubs prospects was a fun project. A few of these players feel like locks in the above slots, as Pete Crow-Armstrong, Owen Caissie, Jefferson Rojas and Matt Shaw are all in camp as non-roster-invitees, and are among the best in the entire system. I did consider starting Shaw at second, but with how much he's been working at third base, figured the team would want to keep him working there. I could see a situation wherein Murray gets the nod at third and Shaw at second, or even shortstop, but think the Cubs will give Triantos a start and this was the best way to make that happen. When and where possible, as well, I also tried to defer to players expected to start at higher levels of the system. On the mound, Horton is the logical start. He's the best prospect in the system (and arguably the best, period), and deserves the honor to lead the Breakout team onto the field. Horton won't pitch long, however, and I expect the Cubs to give as many players as possible a chance to play in the game. That goes for the offensive players, too, so even though prospects like Pablo Aliendo and Christian Franklin may not start, they should all get appearances. What to watch for: This section could really just be all about the top prospects, but instead, I'm going to try to focus on some of the second- and third-tier players. I'm really interested to see Porter Hodge, whom I wrote about earlier this offseason, on the mound. His breaking stuff is some of the best in the system, and hopefully he shows some improved control. In the same vein, former third-round pick Drew Gray, who could be in line for a real breakout season, should get into the game. The lefty has mid-rotation stuff, but still is working through control and command issues after his professional career essentially started with Tommy John surgery. We're getting to a point where it's "sink or swim" time for Kohl Franklin; who absolutely looks the part but just hasn't found enough strikes. With a strong spring and start to his 2024, perhaps Franklin can finally cash in on the promise he flashes. Moving away from the mound, someone like Pablo Aliendo, who like Gray has "2024 Breakout" written all over him, will be fun to see in the game. Likely catching the second half, watch for Aliendo's impressive raw power to show itself. Speaking of power, I'm thrilled to see a late-round selection like Haydn McGeary get into this game. From a personal standpoint, McGeary had committed to my alma mater (Kentucky) out of Colorado Mesa University. His story of being a D-2 prospect-cum-draft success story has been really fun to watch--almost as fun as when McGeary sends baseballs into orbit. Lastly, Christian Franklin has apparently been putting in a lot of work and time in the weight room. There's always been fourth-outfielder upside in his game, and he has the makeup to stick in that kind of role even if it's all he can be, but this could be the year he really busts onto the scene. He might not have the upside of Crow-Armstrong, but could be a sneaky useful option for the Cubs in 2025 and beyond, off the bench. With the Cubs Breakout Team set to take the field in around a week's time, who are you excited to see take the field? Did I forget to talk about someone? And what do you think the lineup will be? Let us know in the comment section below!
  4. Jason Ross
    The Cubs have multiple pitchers who can hit 95+mph on the gun in Triple-A this year and they're not an outlier. The reality is that MLB velocity can be found pretty regularly across the leagues now a days from Low-A through the MLB. A lot of the deciding factor is how well they control it. Regardless of what his issue is, Triple-A stuff wise will almost assuredly challenge him enough for where he's at. He made contact 67% of the time in Triple-A last year. It isn't like it wasn't an issue there, too.
  5. Jason Ross
    Prospect L:ive 100 dropped today PCA - 16 Horton - 17 Shaw - 29 (outside of Langford, Skenes and Crew he's the 4th highest in last draft) Alcantara - 59 Busch - 65 Caissie - 68
  6. Jason Ross
    Honestly? I doubt much. When we're talking about hitting, and specifically power, the arms are really along for the ride. You're going to get the power from things like your hip explosion, your weight transfer, your angle of attack (or launch angle), wrist rotation... It's got to be a weird experience learning to hit and throw that way. I'm righty-righty and I look like a new-born dear learning to walk if you have me throw left handed or hit left handed. But especially when I swing left handed, where I notice my issues are things like weight transfer on the lower half. My arms don't struggle to swing the bat so much as I mentally can't keep my weight on my lower half straight (for example, when I swing, I drive my right leg into the ground for my load and then explode out of that. When I swing left handed, I notice I'm still loading into my right leg...which is now my front foot).
  7. Jason Ross
    I think Busch is a rookie, thus, there are no guarantees but I'd consider him among the safer types of prospects. He shows improved processes and bat to ball skills in Triple-A that should inspire confidence. He doesn't have brutal splits, and while he's clearly better at some pitches over others, his general plate approach of being picky about what he swings at should mitigate that. First base is a hard position to succeed at because so much is wrapped up in the bat, and I know he didn't light the world on first his first 100 PA's, but generally speaking, I'm actually fairly confident he won't up and flop. He may never be an all-star, but that's another discussion, IMO.
  8. Jason Ross
    Same. I've been really encouraged by how often he's pulled the ball. One of the biggest things I think I'd like to see him polish on is his hit box. He's a very patient hitter, and sometimes to a fault. When he was younger, he'd really wait out pitches. To the point where his hit box was very deep on the plate, making pulling the ball very hard. He was losing some power (he's strong enough to where he can hit opposite field home runs, but I think he was losing power because of it, too). It's also dangerous as stuff ramps up, you just can't wait that long without upping your swing and miss. He's been getting better about being a bit more aggressive, and getting the bat head out on the ball at the front of the plate; where his power will really take off. I try never to read much into ST numbers, but I think processes matter (god, I'm a broken record) here to me. Seeing him pull the few doubles has been really nice, regardless of who it's against, IMO.
  9. Jason Ross
    In terms of swings and misses, yeah. Happ really struggled up top. Look at how his swing and miss profile kind of mirrors PCA! Process wise I think they're different; Happ wasn't prone to chasing so much and was more patient. He'd chase at the top of the zone, but that was kind of it. And his swing decisions were more controlled in counts when he had the advantage. He's even more patient today, but some of those seeds were there early. I think this is in part because swing profile is similar. That launch angle approach: He was controlled in 2017 in that he was generally swinging at the heart. He was bad at those up pitches. Here's him today: He's gotten much better about learning what not to swing at. So PCA is a different breed, He's probably never going to be Happ and I really don't want that for him. Part of Pete Crow-Armstrong, at least, IMO, is the pure electricity he brings, and a bit of that is his aggressive nature (at the plate, in the field and on the bases). One thing I think he can learn from Happ is just to control that a wee bit. Kind of how Happ learned that maybe he just doesn't need to swing at high fastballs and it wasn't for him, I'd like PCA to do that some. I really believe with natural progression, repetitions and some targeted behaviors that's all well within reach for him. Pete Crow-Armstrong has already shown ability to adapt and grow; he changed his entire swing profile upon being traded here.
  10. Jason Ross
    So, just to be 100% clear: I've said that I "truly believe this can be ironed out" and stated I believe we can find polishes on everyone. Your response makes me feel like you're maybe missing that, or suggesting that I'm overly worried here and want to be sure that it's clear I'm not. This isn't some panic post on PCA; this all started in a discussion to Stratos that I don't think the root of PCA's issue is the swing mechanics but more of a process concern (one that people have had for years on Pete Crow-Armstrong). I'm not trying to suggest any prospect death knell here. The process and the plate approach do need cleaning. Without any statcast data from Castellanos, Robert or Burger (all three were in Triple-A pre-2023), it would appear on the surface that based on chase/swing% that they may be similar to PCA,. but I also think there' are processes that can be hidden past that. What I can say is that looking at all three at the MLB level, they don't have the wild swing and chase rates where they're ahead in the count (or even 0-0) like PCA has shown at Triple-A. All three are more controlled than PCA today (though Burger does chase more than the other two on those types of counts). That's just one area, and these are more developed hitters, both in age, level, and experience than PCA (it's not meant as a single-issue voter here). I just wish I could see their swing decisions on specific pitches, counts and the likes at Triple-A to really compare them with Crow-Armstrong; I don't mean to sound dismissive if that's how you're taking it (please don't!), just that I really would love to compare those things and with out it, it's hard to really say if they had similar things going on deep under the hood. To sum it all up with a TLDR: I don't want anyone to think I hate Pete Crow-Armstrong. Just a deep dive finds a few concerns with his swing choices. All of these are things you can't be fully shocked to see from a 21 year old making his debut at Triple-A. All are solvable issues and rarely does a 21 year old not have a polish. This is where I'd really like to see PCA slow down a bit and mature as a hitter.
  11. Jason Ross
    On its own, it's not a death sentence. Hitters can work around approach issues. With that said, PCA turned in a 67% contact rate last year when he got to Triple-A and as present, his swing decisions do appear to be a hindrance. Id say its just a new level, but his plate approach had been a question for a while, and im not sure its just being at a new level for him. He's a young kid, and at 22 years old, having polishes is normal (I could find a polish for every prospect in the system. Multiple. So it's not meant pick on him). I don't need to see him become Juan Soto, but improvement in that area seems necessary. It's something I truly believe can be ironed out, and with his glove and speed, value will be there anyways, but I'd like to see him be more selective and mature his approach. As stated, I think it's the difference of him Dalton Varsho-ing his way to 2 wins and him being a borderline all star type.
  12. Jason Ross
    My big thing is the swing decisions. That heatmap of PCA on fastballs in a no strike count shows you a kid who just...does. I want to see him make better swing decisions. It won't be an easy button for pitchers, but I think that's the difference between PCA the mid 80's wRC+ hitter, and PCA who's an above 100 wRC+ hitter. Better swing decisions, better plans at the plate and you'll get the guy you want. I tend to preach patience with prospects as much as possible. I'll trade some now-time, for more development if possible. If he can show me improved swing decisions consistently, I'll let him work on the rest, as you said. But that's my issue with him; he doesn't know a good strike from a bad strike right now. And I doubt he's ever as good at that, as say, like Michael Busch, but he's got to get better.
  13. Jason Ross
    Hitters, in general, have issues with velo up right now. Launch angle hitting, which really is just a better way to get the ball to make contact with the bat at a more favorable plane, does struggle to getting high velocity. With Pete Crow-Armstrong, a decent amount of this is learning when to swing, and when not to swing. I've included a heat map of his swing and miss rate below, as well as his chase rate, specifically on fastballs, during his time at Triple-A I think these two paint the picture of where I think his approach needs to mature. PCA cannot lay off high and inside, nor can he effectively hit that up and out pitch. He does make enough contact up and inside, however. This is a decent way to visualize his approach issue; he's just too aggressive as of now, unable to lay off up and way in, in hopes it's up and in the zone. I've also included PCA's swing rate with no strikes. He's all over the place. Compare that to Michael Busch's Triple-A swing rate with no strikes. See how much more measured it is? Now, Michael Busch is older, with a very different approach; he's very patient and waits for his pitch (this is one of the reasons why I'm really high on Busch being good at the next level...he's got great swing decisions). But PCA is just swinging wildly right now. If it's a fastball, and it's no strikes, he's just going to swing if it's in the zone, or, if it's high and inside. What I'm really hoping is that if he's looking slow to diagnose fastballs right now is that it's a symptom of him working to refine his approach. He's fighting his instincts right now to swing, and his mental processes will take some time to adjust. Now, I have no idea if that's the case, but what I hope. He's going to have to crawl before he can walk, and walk before he can run here. But I'm hoping this is the first step in a more measured, mature approach.
  14. Jason Ross
    I mean, his second half was worse than his first, but I'm not so sure he really ran out of steam. He did have his worst month of the season in August, then posted a 133 wRC+ in September. August sucked on ice, but he's probably going to be a bit streaky because of the power. His K rate dipped significantly in September, likely a blip, but probably as much of a blip as say, a 33 wRC+ in August, too. Reality is, it's hard to fWAR as a DH. He was just .,5 fWAR off of Jorge Soler, a DH who had a wRC+ of 126 last season, but also 150 PA's away. Soler was a 1.9 fWAR, and the 8th highest fWAR of any DH In baseball. I'm less worried about fWAR when it comes to a DH, similarly akin to how RP fWAR runs. It's a bit funky and prefer to look more at things like wRC+ when speaking of DH's. Overall, I think Morel had a really nice offensive season, though one I agree is less than ideal with concerns about K% and contact rate. With 800 PA's under his belt, however, it's also fair to point out the fairly stable sample size we have to suggest that he's shown the ability to out power that, too. Main point: I understand why people are talking up Morel as a 3b option. If he can figure it out defensively to even be just "below average" he's going to be a nice player. I still have major reservations.
  15. Jason Ross
    I think it's fair to point out his OBP and his K issues (with that said, his OBP last year was .313, pedantic and all). His fWAR, maybe a little less. DH is going to do a lot of work there, and the hope with the Morel at 3b is that he's a capable enough 3b. Where I think people are hopeful is that despite the K's and the OBP, he's a 114 wRC+ hitter over 800 PA's and fresh off a 119 wRC+. This is a not-insignificant sample size over two seasons. A 119 wRC+ at 3b puts him in the conversation next to Max Muncy offensively in 2023. I don't know if I have much hope for Morel to make that transition. There's plenty of athleticism to make you think he doesn't have to be a DH, but that doesn't seem to be translating. Clearly there's hurdles, from questions over his footwork and his arm slot, and his history at the position in the minors...it doesn't seem likely. With that said, I understand why people are excited about the prospect; even if Morel is like, a -5 or -6 OAA at third, if he's a 114 wRC+ hitter...he's likely a 2.5 fWAR third baseman, a clear upgrade over the guys we have. There's enough there that it's possible, however likely or unlikely you personally believe in it. I know I want him to figure it out there; that's the best outcome for all, really.
  16. Jason Ross
    It wasn't a direct comparison, but the idea that the Cubs aren't going to look at an age-24 season and entirely discount it like fans are. There's a reason why Brennen Davis won't be a top-50 prospect next season, almost, regardless of whatever kind of season he has and Busch is. But I also don't think the Cubs are going to ignore anything he does because he's 24, as was alluded to. No one should "force" anything, either, but the route to relevancy in Chicago in 2024 is not very likely. The first hurdle he has to clear is health, the second is showing that he's not only fixed, but improved on all of the issues he's had. He can't do that in 45 days barring some immense 45 days that we'd still have to wonder "how repeatable is this?". Then he has to clear the hurdles in front of him such as Mike Tauchmann who will be given first shot at 4th OF'er, Alexander Canario who's out of option years and ahead of him today, and Owen Caissie who's the better prospect and may be hitting well at Triple-A to even make the MLB roster in a way that will matter. For a player such as Davis who's basically been averaging roughly 50 games a season over the last two, the Cubs almost assuredly would rather he play versus sitting on the bench behind Suzuki and Happ. He really needs games, reps and the like. Being the 5th OF'er in Chicago is probably less interesting to the Cubs than him being the starting option in Iowa. It just a very long route for Brennen Davis to become Cub-relevant this season. Maybe it happens, but it probably requires a confluence of multiple injuries to others or high incompetence, plus Davis' health, plus Davis' progression. Any one of those at this point seems at best a coin flip, and all three seem unlikely. It's probably a better bet he's an option as a 4th OF'er in 2025 with a successful season, or even yet, he's a useful tradechip come July, than him really making any impact on Chicago Cubs on his own in 2024. I'm certainly rooting for him, it's just unlikely.
  17. Jason Ross
    Hard to not just feel awful for Davis. It's incredibly hard to make the MLB when you're healthy. Sometimes there are prospects who it feels like the house has stacked the deck against, and damn, does it feel that way for him. Hopefully it's a small one and he will get back in a week or 10 days.
  18. Jason Ross
    Well, I think you're imparting how fans may interpret a full 2024 season in Triple-A versus how the Cubs internally would view this. I don't doubt that fans on twitter, reddit, and probably some here would discount any season Davis put up in Triple-A at age 24 due to his age. Personally, I think that's silly; plenty of prospects don't have success until age 24 at Triple-A and Davis has a strong argument due to injury, a lost covid-season and the like as to why age-24 would be "his year" finally. I also am confident the Cubs wouldn't. Let's not forget, we're one month removed from the Cubs trading Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope for 26 year old Michael Busch. Now, they may look past something such as a strong wRC+ (or a weak one) and spend more time concerned about processes (much like why I think despite the solid wRC+ the Cubs are seemingly less excited about Matt Mervis). But I don't think the Chicago Cubs would think that a healthy and productive 24 year old campaign in Iowa was not proving anything, either, based solely on his age the way some fans may.
  19. Jason Ross
    I think TT is suggesting is that there's really little reason to rush Brennen Davis to the MLB at this point. He really does need to show that he can finally blend quality with quantity. He's struggled with that since, if we're going to be real with ourselves, the Futures Game. He's had moments, but Triple-A has exposed him to not being able to hit high-hard stuff. That's pretty normal for guys with his body; he's a tall and lanky build and he has long levers...that's a typical weakness (Alcantara struggles with this too). Davis finally showed he could make contact a lot, but he traded that for all of his quality of contact. Unless there's a pressing need for a corner, Davis needs a while in Triple-A to actually develop. He's missed the better part of the last two seasons. He's young enough he's not an entirely written off prospect, but he's struggled long enough that he has to actually prove it. Let him cook in Triple-A for a bit and prove he can both hit high-and-hard while gaining back some confidence before you just decide that despite not showing that ability at Triple-A for any extended amount, that he will just do it at the MLB level.
  20. Jason Ross
    I think most of this is fair. Not sure I think Wisdom is capable of getting near 110 wRC+ in full time (I think in very curated PA's he can get there but given more run, Wisdom tends to fall off, from what I can tell). Morel/Busch feel capable of getting somewhere between 110-120 wRC+ if things go well, though I can see situations where both struggle. I love some Owen Caissie but still think he's going to be developing come June. His last three levels (Low-A, High-A and Double-A) he's started similarly in all: struggling for the first ~45 days or so, then finding his footing, starting to really take off around July-ish. Excpect Triple-A will really work on hitting him up and in and think we will see a similar pattern. I think he's the best bat in the system up and down, and has the biggest upside, but even I'd be shocked to see him come up in June and tear it up; as much as I don't think Morel or Busch would be All-Stars in 2024, I think that's still a shade more likely.
  21. Jason Ross
    I suspect we're going to look back on our lower levels and be happily surprised come the end of the season at some of the fun pop ups that come out of it. It's fair today to wonder where those prospects will come from, but there's a host of guys who have interest. We'll likely get our first extended (or even, for some, their first) looks this season at some recent draft picks like Paciolla, Mule, Wiggins, Carico, Sanders, Rosario who are very young but have some loud tools. As well, guys like Rujano, Arias, Rojas, should be a year further in their developments. The Cubs have also had some recent success finding college bats in rounds 12-20, so it wouldn't be surprising to see like, a Carter Trice, Brian Kalmer, or Jonathon Long to really break out at South Bend. The low levels lack the super-high draft picks right now that you're just jazzed at (thanks to guys like Shaw and Horton speed running those levels, and the recent trade of Ferris), but I think there's some real breakout candidates down there. I can't tell you which ones will or won't, but I really trust the Cubs developmental system right now and am confident we're going to find some guys to watch down there.
  22. Jason Ross
    I'm not sure I agree with that. The Cubs have Busch, with Bellinger as a fall back once Pete Crow-Armstrong is ready. There's good reason why Busch has been ranked top-50 by a few industry rankings, and it'd be hard pressed to find better coverage than Bellinger. There's options as well internally like Matt Mervis, Garrett Cooper, Patrick Wisdom and even Dom Smith has a smear of appeal if the Cubs can find/change something. I'd say most teams don't have as promising as a 1/2 as Busch/Bellinger. Once you get to third in any depth chart, for any position, you start finding questionable options...mostly because if they weren't questionable, they wouldn't be third, ya know?
  23. Jason Ross
    More information about "2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: First Base"
    Even before bringing back Cody Bellinger on a deal lasting anywhere from one year to three, the Cubs made a bold move aimed at shoring up first base, acquiring Michael Busch in a four-player trade with the Dodgers. The Starter: Michael Busch 2023 Stats: 9.9% BB%, 33.3% K%, .167/.247/.292, 49 wRC+, -.5 fWAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS: 9.8 BB%, 25.6% K%, .251/.336/.453 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR Scouting Report: While he will likely see some time at other positions throughout the year, the Cubs have signaled that Busch will likely be the team’s first baseman for most of the season (at least to start). The former Dodger may see time at second and third here or there, but first seems like his home. Busch struggled at times in 2023 in his first run at the MLB level, but the industry remains fairly high on him, with consensus rankings in the top 100 and a top-50 ranking by both MLB.com and Baseball America. Busch has an impressive combination of bat-to-ball and power skills, which means even if he’s “only” a first baseman, he has enough tools in his shed to be an above-average bat at an offensive driven position. Approach-wise, he’s patient, almost to a fault, forcing pitchers to come into the zone. Traditionally, Busch does not have terrible platoon splits in the minor leagues, and really feasts on fastballs. The best development in his game from a somewhat lackluster 2022 to 2023 was Busch’s ability to make adjustments and get around on high-velocity fastballs. As the Cubs ranked in the bottom-10 last season against fastballs in general, a fastball-feasting Busch would seem to fit right in. I wrote more in depth about what we can expect to see from him in 2024 in another article, which goes into a lot of the improvements that Busch made, and just why I'm so excited about him. Other Options: Bringing back Bellinger has made the Cubs positively awash in good alternatives to Busch. While the slight lean right now must be toward Bellinger starting the season in center field, it's not hard to envision Pete Crow-Armstrong forcing the issue and Bellinger ending up spending time at first, with Busch shuttled to the DH spot. Meanwhile, a player like Patrick Wisdom goes from an iffy platoon option and first fallback plan to an enviable secondary fallback guy. The Cubs also have another young player in Matt Mervis on the 40-man roster who could step in if needed. While both Mervis and Busch struggled in their initial stints in the show, I have much more confidence in Busch. I also wrote, recently, about Mervis and his second-half-2023 struggles. Long story short: the swing decisions got worse with time, and that’s just not good. Could Christopher Morel provide coverage at first? Earlier in the offseason, the Cubs spoke about giving the powerful right-handed hitter some looks at first. Morel’s position is in flux, and the Cubs are clearly looking for a way to get his thump into the lineup when they can. While he’s more likely to see time at the designated hitter position, there’s a chance that the Cubs will give Busch some time at third, or that Morel will take to the first base position, and could see time here. At the moment, he seems to be in the driver's seat for the third-base gig, instead. The Big Question: Is Busch the answer at first base? The Cubs didn’t get Busch for free, and had to part with two pretty interesting prospects to get him in Jackson Feris (whom Northside Baseball ranked their ninth-best prospect in the fall) and Zyhir Hope, a relatively big-money 11th-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. This would both suggest that the Cubs really believe in Busch, but also remind us that the Cubs should hope they have read the situation well. The good news is that, with Bellinger in the fold, the Cubs have some cover internally if they feel as though they need to pivot. Moving Busch to the DH spot wouldn't be ideal, but platooning him there or at first would be palatable. The Cubs have tremendous depth at first base now, so regardless of how well Busch does, they should have options in 2024. Long-term, however, the Cubs really should be hoping that the former Dodger pans out. If he does, it will be hard to argue that the Cubs didn’t win their end of the trade, getting the first base position locked down for the better half of the next decade, at the very least.
  24. Jason Ross
    The Chicago Cubs have struggled to lock down first base ever since the departure of Anthony Rizzo. Have they finally solved the position long-term with the addition of Michael Busch? Or is Cody Bellinger going to spend much of the coming campaign at the cold corner? Image courtesy of © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK Even before bringing back Cody Bellinger on a deal lasting anywhere from one year to three, the Cubs made a bold move aimed at shoring up first base, acquiring Michael Busch in a four-player trade with the Dodgers. The Starter: Michael Busch 2023 Stats: 9.9% BB%, 33.3% K%, .167/.247/.292, 49 wRC+, -.5 fWAR 2024 Projections: ZiPS: 9.8 BB%, 25.6% K%, .251/.336/.453 115 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR Scouting Report: While he will likely see some time at other positions throughout the year, the Cubs have signaled that Busch will likely be the team’s first baseman for most of the season (at least to start). The former Dodger may see time at second and third here or there, but first seems like his home. Busch struggled at times in 2023 in his first run at the MLB level, but the industry remains fairly high on him, with consensus rankings in the top 100 and a top-50 ranking by both MLB.com and Baseball America. Busch has an impressive combination of bat-to-ball and power skills, which means even if he’s “only” a first baseman, he has enough tools in his shed to be an above-average bat at an offensive driven position. Approach-wise, he’s patient, almost to a fault, forcing pitchers to come into the zone. Traditionally, Busch does not have terrible platoon splits in the minor leagues, and really feasts on fastballs. The best development in his game from a somewhat lackluster 2022 to 2023 was Busch’s ability to make adjustments and get around on high-velocity fastballs. As the Cubs ranked in the bottom-10 last season against fastballs in general, a fastball-feasting Busch would seem to fit right in. I wrote more in depth about what we can expect to see from him in 2024 in another article, which goes into a lot of the improvements that Busch made, and just why I'm so excited about him. Other Options: Bringing back Bellinger has made the Cubs positively awash in good alternatives to Busch. While the slight lean right now must be toward Bellinger starting the season in center field, it's not hard to envision Pete Crow-Armstrong forcing the issue and Bellinger ending up spending time at first, with Busch shuttled to the DH spot. Meanwhile, a player like Patrick Wisdom goes from an iffy platoon option and first fallback plan to an enviable secondary fallback guy. The Cubs also have another young player in Matt Mervis on the 40-man roster who could step in if needed. While both Mervis and Busch struggled in their initial stints in the show, I have much more confidence in Busch. I also wrote, recently, about Mervis and his second-half-2023 struggles. Long story short: the swing decisions got worse with time, and that’s just not good. Could Christopher Morel provide coverage at first? Earlier in the offseason, the Cubs spoke about giving the powerful right-handed hitter some looks at first. Morel’s position is in flux, and the Cubs are clearly looking for a way to get his thump into the lineup when they can. While he’s more likely to see time at the designated hitter position, there’s a chance that the Cubs will give Busch some time at third, or that Morel will take to the first base position, and could see time here. At the moment, he seems to be in the driver's seat for the third-base gig, instead. The Big Question: Is Busch the answer at first base? The Cubs didn’t get Busch for free, and had to part with two pretty interesting prospects to get him in Jackson Feris (whom Northside Baseball ranked their ninth-best prospect in the fall) and Zyhir Hope, a relatively big-money 11th-round selection in the 2023 MLB Draft. This would both suggest that the Cubs really believe in Busch, but also remind us that the Cubs should hope they have read the situation well. The good news is that, with Bellinger in the fold, the Cubs have some cover internally if they feel as though they need to pivot. Moving Busch to the DH spot wouldn't be ideal, but platooning him there or at first would be palatable. The Cubs have tremendous depth at first base now, so regardless of how well Busch does, they should have options in 2024. Long-term, however, the Cubs really should be hoping that the former Dodger pans out. If he does, it will be hard to argue that the Cubs didn’t win their end of the trade, getting the first base position locked down for the better half of the next decade, at the very least. View full article
  25. Jason Ross
    There were a few tweets this offseason suggesting Ballesteros was making progress behind the plate. Perhaps Counsell can bring some of the Brewer magic with him, too. He obviously wasn't the catching guru, but I can't imagine he wasn't in the room or deaf the entire time, either. It's optimistic to think Ballesteros catches in the MLB, but not so optimistic I'm counting it out yet.
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