Jason Ross

Yep! Tommy Birch, beat writer for Iowa, confirmed that.

Moving! We bought a house in early June, so this entire summer has been a combination of: 1. Dealing with this brutal housing market 2. Dealing with all the nonsense of buying. 3. Packing. 4. Moving. 5. Having the internet set up a week after we moved. 6. Unpacking We are finally in, have internet and am decompressing. Good thing I go back to work Monday haha

Me either! When you see AAA in front of AA you just immediately assume "oh, this dude repeated!" I had to go back and look myself. And yeah, exactly what I think happened. He took 9 PA's in three games at the end of the year in Triple-A straight from A+.

Had a little edit. Interesting note: he's not a repeater! Caught me off guard too. This is his first try at Double-A. He skipped Double-A last year and went to Triple-A. So I think that makes me feel even better about the data. He's had a circuitous path! Maybe it's shiny new toy syndrome, but I think I'd like him a bit more than Franklin if the statcast data is good because he's a capable SS. Without the statcast stuff, I think they're on par with each other with what I can see on quick glances.

Today, the Cubs made a move, sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the New York Yankees in exchange for right-handed pitcher Jack Neely and infielder Ben Cowles. Who did the Cubs get back in the trade, and what should we expect from each of them? Image courtesy of Jack Neely When the Cubs signed Mark Leiter Jr. a while back, he was a complete lottery ticket. Already 30 years old and a clear journeyman in the league, the Cubs worked with his pitch and turned him into a fairly deadly 7th—and 8th-inning option, especially using his split-finger fastball against left-handed hitters. Today, the Cubs cashed in that lottery ticket and came away with two prospects on the back end: right-handed pitcher Jack Neely and infielder Benjamin Cowles. Jack Neely Jack Neely is instantly recognizable simply for his 6"8 frame; he's huge. Drafted in the 11th round out of Ohio State, the right-hander just turned 24 years old a little over a month ago. Working with a pitch FanGraphs calls a "plus slider" and a fastball that has averaged roughly 95mph in Triple-A, it's a pretty standard two-pitch right-handed bullpen repertoire. With his size, however, comes the normal caveat of "control" because controlling a frame that large becomes cumbersome (i.e., see the Cubs' own Luke Little). Neely relies on the slider against righties (as he should), throwing it nearly 50% of the time in his 10 Triple-A innings. When he's capable of throwing the pitch for strikes, he gets big in-zone whiffs but does tend to struggle with location on this pitch, throwing it non-competitively nearly one out of every three times. While not amazing, the fastball does play up due to his 6'8" frame and extension (though he doesn't get as much extension as you'd wish you could see!). Regardless, Neely has the look and the profile of a capable back-end reliever if he can dial in the slider more and throw strikes. The size, the velocity, and the slider are a combination that could see a K% sitting well above 25% and make him an intimidating pitcher to hit against. There's a good chance we'll see Neely pretty soon in Chicago, as he's probably right on the precipice of being MLB-ready. The thought of the Cubs going with a 7th/8th of Luke Little to Jack Neely would surely be a fun thing to see; human beings you'd be more likely to see (physicality-wise) at the United Center with the Bulls than on a pitching mound. Benjamin Cowles Ben Cowles was not considered among the Yankees' better prospects in pre-season. Entering the year, the M.O. on Cowles was that he was a capable defender at more than one position but struggled with bat-to-ball skills, which showed with inflated K% throughout his MiLB career. In 2023, Cowles posted a decent 109 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in Double-A but had a K% nearing 28% - that's just not good enough, and there should be no blame that anyone left him off top-30 lists. The good news is that Cowles, a 2021 draft pick out of Maryland (and former teammate of current Cub prospect Matt Shaw), put some work into his approach, and the results are showing. In 2024, thus far, the utility infielder has lowered his K% to 17.7% (a 10% reduction) while maintaining his double-digit walk rates, improving his ISO by .40 points, and seeing no shift in BABIP. This has resulted in a jump from 109 wRC+ to 140 wRC+, among Double-A leaders in average and OBP. Now, it should be noted that he is 24, but he's not a repeater which surprised me. The Yankees moved him from Hihg-A directly to Triple-A at the very end of the year. According to an article from BA, this is when he realized he needed to change his swing. He worked on this during the AFL (where he was a teammate of Triantos and Alcantara) and the results this year are impressive. So while he's "overaged" for Double-A this is his first go at the level. Cowles, however, has shown that there's an MLB ceiling when there didn't appear to be one. He's able to play second, shortstop, and third base, and while all three positions are manned, and some have prospects who project to be better than Cowles at the next level, a role as a bench player capable of playing multiple positions well is on the table. An improved version of Miles Mastrobuoni feels like a realistic and potential outcome. He is also rule-5 eligible, meaning the Cubs will almost assuredly need to protect him come this winter. Sadly, Ben was recently hit by a pitch and placed on the 7-day injured list on July 26th, so it will likely be a bit before we see him at a Cub MiLB affiliate, but he's probably Triple-A ready whenever he's healthy. Overall, I find little fault with the return. I don't think it will be a sexy trade from a prospect ranking perspective. There's no Dylan Lesko shock value here. But I also think it's a solid return. The Cubs lost Hunter Bigge in the Christopher Morel/Isaac Paredes swap and replaced him with Jack Neely. They've also added a pretty interesting player who could be a useful 250-300 PA kind of guy at multiple positions with a bit of upside that maybe there's even more there. And they did so for a player they signed off the scrap heap a few years ago. View full article

Welcome Tank!

It sounds like he's been hitting the ball really hard. I can't see his EV on my own, but there are multiple videos of him hitting balls around 100+ mph off the bat. The K% dropped 10%, the ISO rose .40 points. I really like what I'm seeing on Cowles. There's a reasonable upside of "guy you really like on the bench for 350 PA's" and an upper-end-bell-curve of "this guy could probably start", IMO. He feels really underrated and I suspect he's a large part of why the Cubs made this trade. Neely is a near replacement for Bigge, but Cowles feels like a guy you can find a lot to like. We know they love modeling, so wit the anecdotal EV's I'm seeing doing video scouting, I'm guessing they're getting good model data on him. EDIT: Per BA, he realized when he went to Triple-A his swing was a problem and took it upon himself to change it. Also interesting to note: he's NOT repeating. He skipped Double-A at the end of last year. This is his first rodeo. I just caught it myself.

HBP. Trying to figure out where. July 26th was when he was placed on IL

I'd assume with his length/size that his extension plays that FB velocity up. Not like, 100mph up, but up.

Not mad at the return. Neely could come up in August if the Cubs wanted and be an immediate replacement in the bullpen. And Cowles has done a good job reworking his approach. Could be a good utility guy on the bench who can move around.

1. I think if the Cubs expected to trade him, he'd have been scratched. So for whatever reason; either teams not valuing Taillon or the Cubs uninterested in really trading him, that doesn't seem to be happening as of now. 2. I fully believe the people who run MLB teams understand sample size and that outliers happen. If you liked Taillon at 5pm you like him at 10pm because his arm didn't fall off despite a not great start. One good start won't make a team jump and a bad one won't scare a team off barring health issues.

Not doubting you, just curious; did they mention a specific source?

Exactly. Even if there's some hesitation on just how good Parades will be with the Cubs (will it be 130, 30 HR wRC+ guy? Or like, 118 wRC+ guy who hits 25 home runs?) this trade feels like a great utilization of assets. I really liked Morel as a dude, and I think there's a realistic world where he hits 35 home runs and is a really good middle order guy...but I think the Cubs did great here. They turned a guy they didn't need as much (a DH) and turned them into a dude they did need (a 3b). That 3b is 25. Controlled. I'll miss Morel. I'll wish Bigge and Johnson the best. But I feel pretty happy with how they did this. It's a far departure from the last major Cub/Rays deal for Garza, IMO.

Mo Baller with a pinch hit grand slam. Ho-hum.

Oh yeah, the Rays *can* lose trades. But they're also among the best, if not the best, when it comes to player evaluations. When you feel like you've fleeced the Rays is exactly when you should wonder what you're not seeing. In all honesty, I like this trade from both sides. The Cubs get a 3b they need, maintained their prospect depth by dealing BP arms and gave up from positions of strength (DH). The Rays have a top-prospect they love at 3b, so losing a 3b is bearable, while also getting back a hitter the underlying data loves and a couple of risky, but upside-BP arms. I think both teams win here.

I generally dislike BBTV. But if it thinks we ripped off the Rays, it's greatest thing I've seen.

Parades opposite field home runs in the MLB: 0 1908's opposite field home runs in the MLB: 0 The great equalizer.

I wonder if this has any implication on Nico's future. With Shaw, Triantos and a handful of prospects now definitely looking at that path...I wonder what they're going to do there. Not that Nico needs to be on hug watch right this second or anything, just thinking outloud.

That's...shocking.

Take the name out of the equation for a moment. Lesko has been awful. He's walked 52 hitters in just under 70 innings at the high-A level. His fastball is sitting in the low 90's, so it's not a case of "he throws really hard but doesn't know where it's going". There's still something there, but it's not like the Rays just acquired a stud prospect. They got the equivalent of roughly Drew Gray's 2024. For the Rays it's a worthwhile gamble. You hope you can find the control and turn Lesko into a dude. But there's a reason the Padres gave up Lesko, too, so it's far less than a slam dunk return outside of knowing that two years ago Lesko was selected in the first round.

Love that. Two prospects who are well on the outs in the org as Pinango's star had fallen enough he wasn't getting picked for a 40 man spot and Rivera, who I never really liked from jump-street and has struggled. Turn him into a controllable arm who hits 98 and needs work on fastball shape. That's a trade I make every day and twice on Sunday. Worthwhile gamble for a team like the Cubs in the position they are in.

Spencer Jones is broken anyways. His contact and K% rates are absolutely in the tanker. I wouldn't have any interest in him for Nico.

I wonder if the team is waiting to do a mass move of guys once the draft gets under contract and is ready to take spots. With a heavy lack of prep players, and a lot of college hitters who (in theory) could start in SB, waiting a short amount of time and then clearing those spots may make sense.

It's the kind of draft you have in a weird class. The general belief was that this was a very top-heavy draft and that there was a significant fall off in the 2nd-3rd round ranges. I also cannot stress enough that people need to worry less about rankings than they do. Not that you're doing that, but these rankings once you get past the top-top are largely meaningless. It's a lot of "when you saw a kid" because there's just too many kids to watch from a national industry standard. Teams have more specificity in what they're looking at and for and do more legwork on those individuals. I don't think it's a very weird draft when you add that into all of the metric data we have seen on these guys. Most players have been metric darlings; they don't chase and have high EV. Many have previous experience with wood bats and hit at the Cape. Some of these guys didn't play in the SEC, but you hope that one or two of them use these strong tools and they translate to better and better competition as well as take to player development. The Cubs went into a shallow draft, targeted batted ball profile and are hoping that translates. I know the general belief right now in Cub Fandom is that the Cubs can't develop hitters at the MLB level but the tip of that spear is only just hitting that level. They've had strong years from most of their top hitting prospects year over year so I think they're on the right track. They're hoping that helps here, too. The ROI in MLB drafts are low. If they get anything out of a 4th round pick to begin with, it's a win. Even more so from guys in the 7th like Ivan Brethowr. So while the rankings might not love an Edgar Alvarez, 8th round picks fail most of the time. Even a 3rd round like Ronny Cruz...those guys don't pan out most of the time. With everything taken at that level, this is just a baseball draft. I'd far rather the Cubs have a defined draft strategy; target Cape performances and metric darlings than them just shoot from the hip.