Jason Ross

It's one step at a time for me. They're within a game of .500. Let's get to that watermark first. Then you worry about jumping some of these teams in front of you, like the Giants and the Cardinals. Then you start worrying about the playoffs. This year has been an odd mirror image of last season. Last year it felt like most of the first part of the season, things were going as good as you could have hoped. Players were generally healthy, guys like Bellinger landed on their feet, and come the end of August, the team had a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Bad injury luck, coupled with negative variance and the team fell apart. Maybe this year we continue the inverse; we had the injuries early, the negative variance and the >10% chance of making the playoffs. We're starting to see guys come around. We're getting healthier. Who knows what the rest of the year brings?

Trying to get O'Hoppe was the right move. Bummer they couldn't get that over the line. I'd be surprised if some smoke with that in the winter didn't pop back up, even if just a token reference because the Cubs had previous interest.

As stated, I wasn't saying anything about Robert being cooked or not. The previous poster mentioned they didn't know his injury history exactly. I provided it with context that it *is* a good amount of injuries. Nothing in that post was to be taken further as I was not entering into this debate. Only providing the details someone asked for.

https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/luis-robert-player-injuries His injury history is extensive. I'm not saying he is or isn't toast, but Robert isn't a typical 26-year-old in terms of his injuries. Some of those are more nagging, others are 60-day IL trips, but Robert has a long history.

The trade deadline and the draft tend to grab most of the headlines in July, but that doesn't stop the MiLB side of things from stopping altogether. Which pitcher in the Cubs system stood out in July? Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo The Cubs minor league system has an "offensive" slant; most of the top ten (outside of Jaxon Wiggins) are hitters, and the Cubs spent most of their high-profile draft selections this summer on bats again. There are still a lot of really exciting and fun pitchers in the Cubs' system - many of them saw promotions to new levels in July, making this a strange month for starting pitching across the board as many had up and down months. However, it's important to always look at the forest through the trees. Honorable Mentions: Jaxon Wiggins - 6.59 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 26.7 K%, 11.7 BB%, 13.2 IP The ERA is rough, but Wiggins earned a promotion to South Bend mid-month and remains one of the better prospects in the system. He's learning how to pitch against High-A hitters, but the promotion of a top prospect alone earns an HM from me, regardless of how those starts went. Nazier Mule - 3.00 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 11.1 IP Mule is the opposite of Wiggins in that his ERA was great, but his FIP was not. Mule has great stuff, but controlling and commanding it remains an issue, as he struck out 11 in 11 innings pitched but also walked 11. The young pitcher hopes to continue to work on this aspect. Sam Armstrong—4.76 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 21.9 K% 11 BB% 17 IP Armstrong is the latest in a line of late-round finds in the draft. By joining players like BJ Murray, Haydn McGeary, Jonathon Long, and Brett Bateman, who have had success in the minors, Armstrong has already earned his way up to Double-A. While his transition to Double-A hasn't been perfect, getting the jump earns an honorable mention, and I think he'll eventually settle in. 3. Brandon Birdsell - (Double-A & Triple-A) 5.31 ERA, 2.31 FIP, 24.4 K%, 5.6 BB%, 20.1 IP Birdsell also earned a big promotion, moving from Tennessee to Iowa. It was a story of "great" and "rough" for Brandon, as two of his starts he was fantastic (one in Tennessee and another in Iowa) and two that were clearly "learning processes," which gave him a bit of a leg up on someone like Armstrong, who also leveled-up but didn't have the same peaks (or valleys, however) at his new level. If injuries pile up post-deadline, Birdsell could make an appearance or two in Chicago, so keep an eye out on his process. Birdsell is a strike-throwing machine, and if he can keep his velocity in the 92-94 mph range with funky arm action, he could make himself an interesting back-end arm. Regardless of his prospect status, I think he had a pretty decent month. The ERA looks worse than the under-the-hood stuff and, in a month of transition, he deserves to find himself here. 2. Juan Bello - (Low-A) 2.75 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 25 K%, 2.6 BB%, 19.2 IP Juan Bello has come out and had a really solid first year in Myrtle Beach. While not a velo king, Bello uses deception, some funk, and solid pitch ability to get around lower-level pitchers - it's not out of the norm to see him "Nester Cortes" a bit on the mound playing with his delivery. July was the first month all year; however, Bello put this with improved strike throwing and walking just a pair of hitters all month. He's going longer in games (reaching five innings a few times) and looks to be on the cusp of a promotion if this keeps. A cup of coffee in South Bend wouldn't be crazy to see at the end of the year. 1. Connor Noland - (Double-A & Triple-A) 1.82 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 25.5 K%, 5.1 BB%, 24.2 IP As a prospect and a prospect alone, it's hard to gauge where he sits: Noland's velocity sits in the low 90s, topping around 92-93mph, but that's neither here nor there for how well he's done so far since turning pro. Showing improved K% in Triple-A so far while also generating a ton of groundballs, Noland is doing everything he can to make himself a prospect and show evaluators that there is more than fastball velocity. While I think he's probably behind Brandon Birdsell in terms of "right-now" pecking order if an injury were to happen (simply because of track record mount), it's getting neck-and-neck in terms of which lower-velo-strike-thrower the Cubs would turn to if need be. Overall, an awesome month from Connor. View full article

PCA's starting to look more comfortable.

Throwing a lot of strikes and the stuff looks good. Still an issue with swing and miss, though. Obviously in small sample size but his chase% is sitting around 20% or so compared to Triple-A average of 29% or so. In-zone whiff is sitting around 10% compared to league average just under 19%. I'd really like to see those get to at least Triple-A average as I just don't trust numbers that low and fear him getting BABIP'd to death with balls in play. If there's a positive it's that the GB% remains super high, so there's a FIP beater profile in there that could suggest an ability to control the runners more with added ground balls and double play chances. Regardless, not shitting on him, at 27 and with the injuries and the struggles if the Cubs can get anything out of him at this point it's a win and I'd like to get a look at him out of the pen at some point in 2024 to see how it plays at the MLB level.

They don't have a lot of value already and it's unlikely to change much between now and the winter. I think we need to remember; the guys we don't really want, other teams don't really want. We don't really want Mervis or Canario because both are flawed players who probably aren't starting MLB potential if they are even MLB players. Other teams probably value them just the same. You don't get much for that.

First, both have been hurt. Mervis broke a hamate bone and Canario has been out for a bit. Secondly, they probably don't have much value. Everyone has access to Mervis' MLB data and while Canario is interesting enough, the injuries are piling up. Both are types that, at best, you use to buy the exact kinds of players the Cubs said they had little/no-intetest in; expiring contracts of mediocre players. They'd get you more Jose Cuases. We already did that with Nate Pearson. They'll still have some value in the winter. I'm sure they will once again be shopped. But they really don't have a ton of value at the moment.

I like Neely! He's got a weird slider profile; really low RPM's. Creates the gyro motion. Think he's an interesting guy. I think he'll fit in as a solid mid inning guy with some potential setup stuff.

Yep! Tommy Birch, beat writer for Iowa, confirmed that.

Moving! We bought a house in early June, so this entire summer has been a combination of: 1. Dealing with this brutal housing market 2. Dealing with all the nonsense of buying. 3. Packing. 4. Moving. 5. Having the internet set up a week after we moved. 6. Unpacking We are finally in, have internet and am decompressing. Good thing I go back to work Monday haha

Me either! When you see AAA in front of AA you just immediately assume "oh, this dude repeated!" I had to go back and look myself. And yeah, exactly what I think happened. He took 9 PA's in three games at the end of the year in Triple-A straight from A+.

Had a little edit. Interesting note: he's not a repeater! Caught me off guard too. This is his first try at Double-A. He skipped Double-A last year and went to Triple-A. So I think that makes me feel even better about the data. He's had a circuitous path! Maybe it's shiny new toy syndrome, but I think I'd like him a bit more than Franklin if the statcast data is good because he's a capable SS. Without the statcast stuff, I think they're on par with each other with what I can see on quick glances.

Today, the Cubs made a move, sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the New York Yankees in exchange for right-handed pitcher Jack Neely and infielder Ben Cowles. Who did the Cubs get back in the trade, and what should we expect from each of them? Image courtesy of Jack Neely When the Cubs signed Mark Leiter Jr. a while back, he was a complete lottery ticket. Already 30 years old and a clear journeyman in the league, the Cubs worked with his pitch and turned him into a fairly deadly 7th—and 8th-inning option, especially using his split-finger fastball against left-handed hitters. Today, the Cubs cashed in that lottery ticket and came away with two prospects on the back end: right-handed pitcher Jack Neely and infielder Benjamin Cowles. Jack Neely Jack Neely is instantly recognizable simply for his 6"8 frame; he's huge. Drafted in the 11th round out of Ohio State, the right-hander just turned 24 years old a little over a month ago. Working with a pitch FanGraphs calls a "plus slider" and a fastball that has averaged roughly 95mph in Triple-A, it's a pretty standard two-pitch right-handed bullpen repertoire. With his size, however, comes the normal caveat of "control" because controlling a frame that large becomes cumbersome (i.e., see the Cubs' own Luke Little). Neely relies on the slider against righties (as he should), throwing it nearly 50% of the time in his 10 Triple-A innings. When he's capable of throwing the pitch for strikes, he gets big in-zone whiffs but does tend to struggle with location on this pitch, throwing it non-competitively nearly one out of every three times. While not amazing, the fastball does play up due to his 6'8" frame and extension (though he doesn't get as much extension as you'd wish you could see!). Regardless, Neely has the look and the profile of a capable back-end reliever if he can dial in the slider more and throw strikes. The size, the velocity, and the slider are a combination that could see a K% sitting well above 25% and make him an intimidating pitcher to hit against. There's a good chance we'll see Neely pretty soon in Chicago, as he's probably right on the precipice of being MLB-ready. The thought of the Cubs going with a 7th/8th of Luke Little to Jack Neely would surely be a fun thing to see; human beings you'd be more likely to see (physicality-wise) at the United Center with the Bulls than on a pitching mound. Benjamin Cowles Ben Cowles was not considered among the Yankees' better prospects in pre-season. Entering the year, the M.O. on Cowles was that he was a capable defender at more than one position but struggled with bat-to-ball skills, which showed with inflated K% throughout his MiLB career. In 2023, Cowles posted a decent 109 wRC+ as a 23-year-old in Double-A but had a K% nearing 28% - that's just not good enough, and there should be no blame that anyone left him off top-30 lists. The good news is that Cowles, a 2021 draft pick out of Maryland (and former teammate of current Cub prospect Matt Shaw), put some work into his approach, and the results are showing. In 2024, thus far, the utility infielder has lowered his K% to 17.7% (a 10% reduction) while maintaining his double-digit walk rates, improving his ISO by .40 points, and seeing no shift in BABIP. This has resulted in a jump from 109 wRC+ to 140 wRC+, among Double-A leaders in average and OBP. Now, it should be noted that he is 24, but he's not a repeater which surprised me. The Yankees moved him from Hihg-A directly to Triple-A at the very end of the year. According to an article from BA, this is when he realized he needed to change his swing. He worked on this during the AFL (where he was a teammate of Triantos and Alcantara) and the results this year are impressive. So while he's "overaged" for Double-A this is his first go at the level. Cowles, however, has shown that there's an MLB ceiling when there didn't appear to be one. He's able to play second, shortstop, and third base, and while all three positions are manned, and some have prospects who project to be better than Cowles at the next level, a role as a bench player capable of playing multiple positions well is on the table. An improved version of Miles Mastrobuoni feels like a realistic and potential outcome. He is also rule-5 eligible, meaning the Cubs will almost assuredly need to protect him come this winter. Sadly, Ben was recently hit by a pitch and placed on the 7-day injured list on July 26th, so it will likely be a bit before we see him at a Cub MiLB affiliate, but he's probably Triple-A ready whenever he's healthy. Overall, I find little fault with the return. I don't think it will be a sexy trade from a prospect ranking perspective. There's no Dylan Lesko shock value here. But I also think it's a solid return. The Cubs lost Hunter Bigge in the Christopher Morel/Isaac Paredes swap and replaced him with Jack Neely. They've also added a pretty interesting player who could be a useful 250-300 PA kind of guy at multiple positions with a bit of upside that maybe there's even more there. And they did so for a player they signed off the scrap heap a few years ago. View full article

Welcome Tank!

It sounds like he's been hitting the ball really hard. I can't see his EV on my own, but there are multiple videos of him hitting balls around 100+ mph off the bat. The K% dropped 10%, the ISO rose .40 points. I really like what I'm seeing on Cowles. There's a reasonable upside of "guy you really like on the bench for 350 PA's" and an upper-end-bell-curve of "this guy could probably start", IMO. He feels really underrated and I suspect he's a large part of why the Cubs made this trade. Neely is a near replacement for Bigge, but Cowles feels like a guy you can find a lot to like. We know they love modeling, so wit the anecdotal EV's I'm seeing doing video scouting, I'm guessing they're getting good model data on him. EDIT: Per BA, he realized when he went to Triple-A his swing was a problem and took it upon himself to change it. Also interesting to note: he's NOT repeating. He skipped Double-A at the end of last year. This is his first rodeo. I just caught it myself.

HBP. Trying to figure out where. July 26th was when he was placed on IL

I'd assume with his length/size that his extension plays that FB velocity up. Not like, 100mph up, but up.

Not mad at the return. Neely could come up in August if the Cubs wanted and be an immediate replacement in the bullpen. And Cowles has done a good job reworking his approach. Could be a good utility guy on the bench who can move around.

1. I think if the Cubs expected to trade him, he'd have been scratched. So for whatever reason; either teams not valuing Taillon or the Cubs uninterested in really trading him, that doesn't seem to be happening as of now. 2. I fully believe the people who run MLB teams understand sample size and that outliers happen. If you liked Taillon at 5pm you like him at 10pm because his arm didn't fall off despite a not great start. One good start won't make a team jump and a bad one won't scare a team off barring health issues.

Not doubting you, just curious; did they mention a specific source?

Exactly. Even if there's some hesitation on just how good Parades will be with the Cubs (will it be 130, 30 HR wRC+ guy? Or like, 118 wRC+ guy who hits 25 home runs?) this trade feels like a great utilization of assets. I really liked Morel as a dude, and I think there's a realistic world where he hits 35 home runs and is a really good middle order guy...but I think the Cubs did great here. They turned a guy they didn't need as much (a DH) and turned them into a dude they did need (a 3b). That 3b is 25. Controlled. I'll miss Morel. I'll wish Bigge and Johnson the best. But I feel pretty happy with how they did this. It's a far departure from the last major Cub/Rays deal for Garza, IMO.