Chicago Cubs 2025 Offseason Top 20 Prospects: No. 5 Kevin Alcantara

I've been really surprised at the lack of trade buzz around Alcantara this winter.  He's nominally blocked by PCA, the most exciting pure talent at Iowa (moreso than Shaw even), and a true CF in a winter where the options on the market there are quite sad. 

I'm wondering if the industry is softening on him, or the total opposite where he's played himself into something approaching untouchable status in the team's eyes.  The surprising late season callup plus the team not adding a true bench CFer this winter (it appears that will be covered by Canario and/or Brujan?) would seem to point to the latter.

When Jed talks about clean books, he’s tangentially talking about Alcantara, OWNKC, and PCA. Happ is on the last year of his contract and they already explored trading Suzuki. I’d like to see them extend Tucker, but I think we al know that’s going to be a challenge. 
 

So, if all goes well and they can’t retain Tucker there is room for all three of them. All never seems to go well though. 

24 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Happ is on the last year of his contract

Happ is signed through 2026

23 minutes ago, grassbass said:

Happ is signed through 2026

I thought he signed a three year contract in 23. That would make 23, 24,, 25?

31 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I thought he signed a three year contract in 23. That would make 23, 24,, 25?

Nope, Happ is signed thru 26’. 

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I've been really surprised at the lack of trade buzz around Alcantara this winter.  He's nominally blocked by PCA, the most exciting pure talent at Iowa (moreso than Shaw even), and a true CF in a winter where the options on the market there are quite sad. 

I'm wondering if the industry is softening on him, or the total opposite where he's played himself into something approaching untouchable status in the team's eyes.  The surprising late season callup plus the team not adding a true bench CFer this winter (it appears that will be covered by Canario and/or Brujan?) would seem to point to the latter.

Ive been surprised as well to see him not be mentioned more. He feels like the guy the Cubs would be more willing to move and others should likely covet. AX Phil has him as very likely to get anothet option year as well (and he's usually spot on for those valuations). Youd think someone would be super enthused with him. 

Ive kind of viewed the team as pretty damn high on Caissie (just based on how they've moved him) and I guess I struggle to see a future with both as definitely finding a home in a Cubs OF with PCA. But maybe I'm just missing this and they viewed both as the future. Which is probably a good thing and somewhat of a bad thing (with how the Cubs are more tight pocketed than I think remains necessary the prospect hugging is a bit of a bug and a feature).

30 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ive been surprised as well to see him not be mentioned more. He feels like the guy the Cubs would be more willing to move and others should likely covet. AX Phil has him as very likely to get anothet option year as well (and he's usually spot on for those valuations). Youd think someone would be super enthused with him. 

Ive kind of viewed the team as pretty damn high on Caissie (just based on how they've moved him) and I guess I struggle to see a future with both as definitely finding a home in a Cubs OF with PCA. But maybe I'm just missing this and they viewed both as the future. Which is probably a good thing and somewhat of a bad thing (with how the Cubs are more tight pocketed than I think remains necessary the prospect hugging is a bit of a bug and a feature).

If I have to choose between Alcantara and Caissie, the choice isn't particularly difficult and it's not Caissie who may not be able to play an OF position at all.

But with the DH and whatnot, It's a lot easier to fit both on the team. Kevin can spell PCA on tough lefties and/or play all three OF positions (not at the same time). 

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If I have to choose between Alcantara and Caissie, the choice isn't particularly difficult and it's not Caissie who may not be able to play an OF position at all.

Is Cassie that bad an outfielder? I thought he was actually decent in right with a good arm. I know he can’t play center and Alcantara is a solid centerfielder. But I didn’t think he was viewed as someone who can’t play a corner outfield spot. 

34 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Ive been surprised as well to see him not be mentioned more. He feels like the guy the Cubs would be more willing to move and others should likely covet. AX Phil has him as very likely to get anothet option year as well (and he's usually spot on for those valuations). Youd think someone would be super enthused with him. 

Ive kind of viewed the team as pretty damn high on Caissie (just based on how they've moved him) and I guess I struggle to see a future with both as definitely finding a home in a Cubs OF with PCA. But maybe I'm just missing this and they viewed both as the future. Which is probably a good thing and somewhat of a bad thing (with how the Cubs are more tight pocketed than I think remains necessary the prospect hugging is a bit of a bug and a feature).

I do not want to "masterful gambit sir" having Colin Rea as the 5th starter, but if the team thinks they are sufficiently better than the Brewers there's a lot of logic to pushing the inevitable Alcantara/Caissie for a SP trade to July.  Especially now that we know Alcantara has an extra option.  AZ Phil's opinions are dumb meatball radio caller stuff, but he is legitimately an expert at the administrative aspects of minor league rosters.  I trust him implicitly there.

43 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If I have to choose between Alcantara and Caissie, the choice isn't particularly difficult and it's not Caissie who may not be able to play an OF position at all.

But with the DH and whatnot, It's a lot easier to fit both on the team. Kevin can spell PCA on tough lefties and/or play all three OF positions (not at the same time). 

Caissie's defense is much better than youre giving it credit for. He's got a legitimately plus arm and the athleticism isn't bad. Might he DH down the road? Sure. I don't particularly think it's imminent. But between the two, I'm choosing Caissie, myself. More on that, later. Don't want to give all of my secrets away.

Regardless, while you can envision a world where both can find time, there also comes a time when we have to ask the best usage of prospects. Alcantara's best usage is likely in center. And with Busch at 1b, Happ here for at least another 2 years, PCA here for 5...you have to wonder if the best usage for an OFer in the system (with other prospects who could also work as a COF in due time, or other draft picks backfilling some spots) isn't to use combinations of "Shaw or Triantos" and "Caissie or Alcantara" to create a player that the system is more or less missing. 

It's also a numbers game. I love our prospects, but we shouldn't expect them all to be a thing. Moving some for more established players may create a risk of trading the guys who do become regulars but it also mitigates your risk of having your entire future hinged on players you may or may not ever establish themselves, too. There's a push and pull of it. 

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I do not want to "masterful gambit sir" having Colin Rea as the 5th starter, but if the team thinks they are sufficiently better than the Brewers there's a lot of logic to pushing the inevitable Alcantara/Caissie for a SP trade to July.  Especially now that we know Alcantara has an extra option.  AZ Phil's opinions are dumb meatball radio caller stuff, but he is legitimately an expert at the administrative aspects of minor league rosters.  I trust him implicitly there.

Yeah, I've thought about this as well. As much as I don't love Rea, it does allow the Cubs options as the year goes. Horton or Brown or Birdsell could super force action there, or you could jump on a guy at the deadline. 

For 2026, I'd love to see an OF defense of Alcantara, PCA, and Tucker. Or, Happ, PCA, and Alcantara, if Tucker isn't resigned. This would help the pitching quite a bit. This article makes me think again about the Tucker trade. On paper, it would seem that Alcantara would've been a better fit for Houston than Smith in that trade. The Astros acquired two third basemen, even though they also need help in the OF. That probably means at least the Astros aren't very high on the Jaguar. 

That said, they really do have too many quality, upper-level minors/pre-arb players for 2025. Either at the trade deadline, or next offseason, they need to trade one of Happ or Seiya. Their NTCs can be overcome with the right incentives. If Happ likes a certain city, he might be on board if another year or two are added on to his current deal. Seiya might be willing if he was able to play more OF. Also, once Nico proves he's healthy, he should be packaged. I love his glove, but I don't think his bat will age well. He swings from his heels but still has one of the lower bat speeds in the league. Once he loses even a hint of his meager bat speed, his production will fall off a cliff. Once he proves he's healthy, they need to cash in that trade chip. 

I'm shocked Caissie hasn't gotten in reps at 1B at this point, even with his OF defense improving to "average." For his long-term career, having COF/1B on his resume will be important. The Cubs need to sort out a lot of players in the next 1-2 seasons, and a number of trades will have to happen in order to accomplish this.

3 hours ago, G.Krisch said:

I'm shocked Caissie hasn't gotten in reps at 1B at this point, even with his OF defense improving to "average." For his long-term career, having COF/1B on his resume will be important. The Cubs need to sort out a lot of players in the next 1-2 seasons, and a number of trades will have to happen in order to accomplish this.

Yeah I think Caissie's project for early this year at Iowa should be defensive versatility.  Get some real 1B reps in, get some DH reps in (there's a mental component to DH a lot of young guys struggle with). 

If he's playing 6 days a week at Iowa it should be something like 2 days in right, 1 in left, two 2 at first, and one at DH.  He needs to be set up to succeed if any of Happ, Tucker, Busch, or Suzuki go on the IL.

Giving Happ and Suzuki NTC could end up biting this team in the ass, only good thing is both Alcantara and Caissie are just 22 now.

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Giving Happ and Suzuki NTC could end up biting this team in the ass, only good thing is both Alcantara and Caissie are just 22 now.

I'm not exactly going to sweat 2 really good players signed below market value. 

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not exactly going to sweat 2 really good players signed below market value. 

Theyre good players but not great, and having them cemented for the next 2 years now, could hold back the younger OF prospects and also keep them from adding a stud in the OF via FA or trade next offseason.

Only reason they were able to go after Tucker was because they traded Bellinger.

Also, them being below market value hasn't  really allowed Hoyer add a star player at other positions of substantial cost, it just helps keep them under the Threshold with the other low cost players they have.

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Theyre good players but not great, and having them cemented for the next 2 years now, could hold back the younger OF prospects and also keep them from adding a stud in the OF via FA or trade next offseason.

Only reason they were able to go after Tucker was because they traded Bellinger.

Also, them being below market value hasn't  really allowed Hoyer add a star player at other positions of substantial cost, it just helps keep them under the Threshold with the other low cost players they have.

Happ and Suzuki were 18th and 19th among qualified OF last year, You can't do better than that without paying a much higher price(see: Tucker), and Caissie/Alcantara are very much long shots to ever make it to that level, never mind in the next 2 seasons.

49 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm not exactly going to sweat 2 really good players signed below market value. 

True. Also not too concerned about possibly not being able to trade them because maybe Cassie and Alcantara both should play everyday. 

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think Caissie's project for early this year at Iowa should be defensive versatility.  Get some real 1B reps in, get some DH reps in (there's a mental component to DH a lot of young guys struggle with). 

If he's playing 6 days a week at Iowa it should be something like 2 days in right, 1 in left, two 2 at first, and one at DH.  He needs to be set up to succeed if any of Happ, Tucker, Busch, or Suzuki go on the IL.

I like your breakdown for his 2025. He can do all of that while still improving at the plate. 

Love Alcantara, would love him more if he didn't do that awful 'jaguar dainty claw' on his homerun trot. 

I hope he and Cassie survive the offseason as Cubs.