Jason Ross

We're in the third round of a draft that is largely felt to have a huge drop off After picks 50+. Cruz offers pretty huge upside. EV of 108 at the combine. Major power. 17, so you get him super young and hope you can work on the approach. Round 3 in the MLB draft is always a risk. I'd rather chance it on a 17 year old than a middling college performer at this stage.

I saw an MLB.com scouting report video that said his power wasn't great. But it was posted in 2023's winter. I think it's just outdated.

I'd agree. Amick is fine, and I can't say I've done huge legwork on Mathis (he was not on my radar here), but what I have done makes me impressed. He's a fun pick. He's a *funky* pick. But fun. I'm excited for Mathis.

Mathis is an oddball pick. Don't get that twisted, that's not bad...but it's odd. They drafted a guy most everyone thinks is a 1b...and announced him at 3b. He's not a big-school kid. Did crush the Cape (they love the Cap). And the Cubs don't like drafting 1b. I didn't see a Mathis type pick. That feels like an underslot pick. But maybe others were really into him too and it's full slot. But that feels like there might be some money left over.

The dichotomy of Rockies picks. Condon might hit 60 bombs and Brecht is looking at that thin air wondering what he did to make people mad.

Have missed the entire draft so far. Between my own baseball game (we lost 16-4 and it was 97degrees. Yeesh) and moving (no internet until tomorrow AM), it's been tough to follow. On Cam Smith; fine pick. He wouldn't have been my pick, but I can't overly argue. Strong Cape performances and I've heard Ty Nichols, who was at the Cape, saw a lot of him out there. So there's your connection. He's among the younger selections. There's a good chance he sticks at 3b. The modeling data loves him. The swing...got way worse. He needs a refresh (or more) to get him to a place where I think hes an upper echelon upside guy, but there's also upside there. So I can't say I'd have picked him 14th if you gave me the keys to the kingdom, but I also can't whing and complain. It's got logic, I trust Nichols and hopefully the Cubs take a kind of bad swing and turn it into a good one!

He's not even in the portal. There's been zero scuttle on that here in Lexington. I'm a big UK fan; alumni and still live in the city. While maybe true, it'd come out of nowhere. Edit; sorry just saw your post above! You're good dude. There's like 10,00 kids. Easy to mix em up!

Looked like forearm to me.

As we round third and head toward the 2024 draft, it's a good time to take stock of how the Cubs' minor league system is doing overall. We've looked at rising and falling prospects, but how does the entire system look today? Are they headed in the right direction? Image courtesy of © Lily Smith/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK A week from now, the Cubs system will look different, and regardless of whether the Cubs start winning, keep losing, or just tread water the rest of the month, more changes are coming. They will draft at least one player who will immediately vault into the top 10 of the system, and the range from 11-20 will likely have some re-shuffling, either trading a few prospects out (like Alexander Canario or Matt Mervis) or adding a few prospects in sell trades... or both! With that said, it's essential to reflect on how the first half of the season went for the Cubs' system. What's gone right? What's gone wrong? And where the Cubs could go from here? What Went Right Overall, it has been a good year for the Cubs' minor league side, though the Chicago squad's overall season has been poor. Still, it'd probably have gone significantly worse had the player development side not churned out a handful of useful players. Ben Brown is probably the biggest surprise in this regard; a pitcher who was maligned for the way his 2023 season ended (issues with controls and walks) turned into one of the Cubs' unsung heroes, filling in for ace-of-staff Justin Steele and providing valuable innings out of the bullpen before a freak injury has taken some time away from him. Past just Brown, the Cubs have gotten contributions from a handful of other young prospects. Jordan Wicks looked sharp before he went down with an injury, posting much-improved strike-out numbers and looking like someone who belongs in an MLB rotation. Porter Hodge has been lights out in 13 innings so far. Pete Crow-Armstrong has provided positive value despite the horrible hitting. We will have to be quite patient with the bat, but you can see how he will be a useful roster player if he can go from "unplayable" with the bat to simply "bad." A good point of reference here would be Brenton Doyle. Beyond the Cubs' MLB contributions, almost all of the Cubs' top prospects have had good seasons. Owen Caissie has had a great season in Iowa, posting improved strikeout numbers while maintaining a 117 wRC+ as a 21-year-old in Triple-A. Matt Shaw and James Triantos have torn up Double-A and look to be on the precipice of call-ups as both have made progress in trouble areas. Speaking of tearing up Double-A, Moises Ballesteros posted one of the best wRC+ seasons for a 20-year-old we have seen in two decades! He might never be a catcher, but there's no question Mo Baller can hit. Even prospects that had been more-or-less written off, like Cristian Hernandez, have seen themselves have a strong rebound and look back on track. And don't forget about the breakout of Alfonsin Rosario, too. The strikeouts are an issue, but past that, he's been an absolute monster. If you can get these anywhere near acceptable, the Cubs might have found a dude. On the pitching side, the Cubs have seen recent draftees such as Brandon Birdsell, Sam Armstrong, Will Sanders, Jaxon Wiggins, Nazier Mule, and JP Wheat have positive seasons, either due to strong performances or simply coming back and showing that they're moving beyond their injuries. Pitchers like Mule and Wheat still have major control concerns, but given their age, it's more important at this stage of coming back from Tommy John to see them healthy and throwing hard...hopefully, the control comes later. What Went Wrong Nothing is perfect in prospect land, and the Cubs' system has seen their fair share of disappointments, mainly due to injuries. Brown and Wicks have missed being hurt in real-time, as has Cade Horton, the Cubs' top prospect. After cruising through Tennessee, the Cubs' 2022 first-rounder struggled in Iowa, showing lower-than-expected velocity, control issues, and a lat strain. The hope is that he's been working on changing the shape of his fastball, which created new mechanics and led to a minor injury that the Cubs are being overly cautious about, but that's the rose-colored answer, too. The Cubs have also seen injuries to many other arms. Brody McCullough, Kohl Franklin, Richard Gallardo, and a handful of other interesting arms have gone down with injuries derailing the totality of their year. Moving past the pitching injuries, the Cubs' have seen injuries hit their position prospects. Brennen Davis can't catch a break as he was hurt during spring training and most recently has been discovered to have another injury in his back. Jefferson Rojas was hit in the face with a baseball, amiss a bit of a slump, himself. On top of posting a middling 106 wRC+ in the year, Kevin Alcantara has missed time due to various ailments. Even Matt Mervis, who didn't hit in a second chance at the MLB, recently broke his hamate bone. We also couldn't talk about the system without mentioning a few prospects who didn't have it. Drew Gray's struggles. While he's been healthy, he's been terrible, walking more than he's struck out on the season. Gray was tabbed as someone who could have real breakout potential, and he's simply gone the wrong way in 2024. BJ Murray has struggled to hit in Triple-A, a bummer as he could have been a potential 2024 call-up. Hopefully, he finds his swing. McGeary hasn't hit like a first baseman either. These weren't consensus top-10 or top-20 prospects, but they were all interesting enough to garner attention, and they haven't had the kind of seasons you'd hope. Where Do the Cubs Go From Here? As we look at the overall positives of the Cubs' system, most come at the higher levels. Iowa and Tennessee have easily been the most interesting areas for the team in 2024, and entering next year will likely provide a host of call-up options. That also means the lower levels have been...less encouraging so far. That might not keep; with interesting arms like Wheat and Mule getting back up and moving and Derniche Valdez missing most of the year so far, a handful of interesting prospects could jump back into action in the lower levels soon. In the 2024 draft, I suspect that the Cubs will look to refresh the pitching side of things the most. A draft that looks more like 2022, where the Cubs went extremely pitcher-heavy, feels like it's on tap here. They could use more interesting arms throughout, even with interesting arms starting to see their careers take off. The Cubs' top-10 is heavily skewed towards bats, with Horton and Wiggins the only two prospects who would make most of the industry's top-10 today. Generally speaking, though, this feels like a successful top nine for the Cubs' minor-league system. The top bats have progressed outside of Alcantara (and possibly PCA, but it's hard to tell with his lack of Triple-A time). Recent 2021, 2022, and 2023 drafts are producing interesting prospects that could be useful for the Cubs. What's more interesting is that the Cubs are finding prospects who stand out at the top of the draft (Wicks, Shaw, Horton, Triantos, Wiggins) and prospects who stand out in later rounds (Birdsell, Murray, Armstrong, McCullough). Nothing can ever be perfect in prospect land, but I think it's been a solid "B" of a year; most of the things you'd hoped to have happened have so far, and the bad things aren't devastating. Knock on wood, the back nine is just as good. View full article

Colazzo from BA had Tibbs at 14 for the Cubs but I'd agree, I think he's going before 14. I still think the likely group is: Yesevage, M. Moore, Waldschmidt, Benge, Cijnte, Smith as of now. I don't think Christian Moore and his in-zone whiff is going to be a Cub pick, myself. And I think he's before 14, too (he feels so desperately LAA, IMO).

This is fun. We should just do this series all the time.

Well, the last two nights were fun.

Hopefully Moore has an 80 grade pop-time...

Moore came on really hot on the back end of the year. If there's flags, it's that I've seen 45 grades on his in-zone-whiff and some bat path issues. As well, being that he's already at 2b, there isn't many places to move him defensively if for some reason he's not great there as we get more and more data on him on top of 2b just not being a premium position. If there's a positive, it's that the barrier to entry on the bat at 2b is low. I think he's a good prospect and another one of the "fine" picks the Cubs can make at 14.

Another day and another mock! Keith Law 3.0 has the Cubs taking Christian Moore at 14. Mentions Malcolm Moore as another possibility. Where I think things get interesting is in the last sentence where he connects the Cubs as "possible dark horses" on Carson Benge and Jurrangelo Cijinte. What I can't tell is if this is Keith Law hearing things, or if this is Keith being...well...Keith. Keith has a tendency to get a bit "personal" in my opinion when he does things; he doesn't love Christian Moore (ranking him in the 30's) but does really like Benge and Cijinte. So hard to tell if this is him saying the Cubs could be dark horses because...he thinks these guys are good enough to go there. On the surface, Cijinte makes Cub-sense. He's funky (throws RHP and LHP), he's got sweeper/slider/cutter profiles, and would be underslot. These are Cub hallmarks. So perhaps dark horse here is earnest!

Entirely. No one at the time thought Vitters was an off the board pick. Like looking back, yeah, totally a bummer that he didn't work out. In his defense he had a good offensive MiLB career. He was really good at low-a (133 wRC+ at 18), A (146 wRC+ at 19), and high-A (131 wRC+ at 20...he did struggle at double-A). Triple-A by 22, with a 17 K%, 6.6 BB%, .200+ ISO and a 121 wRC+. It's not super-studly, but that's a good line for a 22 year old in Triple-A. Sadly, it's pre-statcast era, so I suspect a look at that data would show the swing decisions were always rough. I think we looked at the time at the OPS and stuff and were more "whelmed" than anything, especially as defensively he wasn't good at third. But looking back he was pretty alright with the bat in terms of most of the data we could have seen (on top of things like wRC+ now). That's just the prospect game. Sometimes guys bust.

Go to a player's page - then splits - then scroll down.

I just started to get into the entire draft process around the Tim Wiklin Tyler Colvin/Hayden Simpson/Brett Jackson era. Those were bleak years. Ugh. I can safely look back and say I hate all three picks at the time, and I feel justified in that disgust using hindsight (though you could argue Colvin was a win in that he had a few fWAR here or there, but I refuse to accept my own logic this time and I don't care!). It's amazing to see how much more I enjoy how the Cubs do things under Kantrovitz versus Wilkin. McLeod had his ups and downs (and I think his downs were more in "development" than "scouting", IMO) but Kantrovitz feels like he "gets it". Or maybe he just "gets me". Ugh it sounds like I want to date Dan. Brb, going to go draw a red heart around my headshot of Danny.

We had a guy on PSD who was clearly connected with the Cubs FO at the time of the 2010 draft. He called the Simpson pick before the draft. Not like "moments before" twitter style now, but well before. Still miffed at that one.

In an odd sense, I felt the same way, too. I sat down a week ago and I came up with a five part article series; Hitters on the rise/decline Pitchers on the rise/decline Overall health (spoiler alert!!) When I came up with it, I really went into the "pitchers on the decline" with the idea that it'd be an easy article...pitchers tank more than any other prospect. Then I sat down and begin writing this and I came to an odd conclusion...outside of like, Drew Gray, there wasn't a "good" Cub pitching prospect that was just having a "bad" year. Now, part of that is that the Cubs' pitching depth has largely been promoted lately; Brown, Wicks, Bigge, Roberts, Little, Palencia...so there's a weird bit of "fog" on the Cubs pitching. There's guys who have struggled with control, like JP Wheat or Nazier Mule, but they're in their infancy as a prospect and I couldn't throw them on this list yet. But most of the Cubs prospect depth left has had neutral seasons (like Cade Horton, who cruised through Tennessee and has struggled with Iowa a bit and a lat injury) or objectively solid seasons. The only real attrition has come through injury. And even then, guys like Franklin started off the year good! It was six innings, so infancy of the season, but it was good! And then TJS. It was somewhat...refreshing?

There's an old saying: "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect." Why? Because, well, pitching prospects appear out of nowhere, and conversely, they disappear just as fast. Due to a combination of attrition, control problems and the high floor for sheer stuff in the modern game, pitching prospects just tank sometimes. Sadly, as much as we'd hope that every Cub pitching prospect was on the upswing, many aren't. Who landed themselves on the fallers list in the first half of 2024? Image courtesy of © Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports The reality of pitching prospects is that for every guy on the rise (like Porter Hodge or Hunter Bigge), you're probably able to find two or three who went the opposite way. Due to the stress put on pitchers and the amount of variance that is possible, pitchers come and go freely, often, and unpredictably. This year has been no different, with a handful of Cub prospects who haven't had the kind of year you'd have hoped for at the outset. Caleb Kilian, SP/RP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) Kilian isn't really a "prospect", at this point, but he's also not a major-league player, or a consistent... anything, right now, so I'm going to include him here. It's been rough sailing for a while for him--really, since he came up and made his MLB debut. Working through issues with generating in-zone whiffs, then control issues, the hope was that the big righty would figure it out this year in Iowa and maybe be a bullpen arm. Instead, Kilian got hurt and has missed the entire year. At the age of 26, being rostered on the 40-man, this is the kind of season he couldn't have to keep his MLB future alight. The good news for KIlian is that, reportedly, he's been hitting near 100 mph on his rehab assignment, and maybe (just maybe) a switch to the pen can unlock something. I still fear that there's no chase pitch, even if he's throwing insanely hard. He's struggled to find any sort of breaking ball that induces strikeouts and chases, with a failed spike-curve and changeup in his wake. Kohl Franklin, SP, Iowa Cubs (Triple-A) My heart hurts having to put Franklin on this list, as I've been a big fan of him since his draft year. Franklin has always had almost everything you want in a pitcher: He had the size, he had the stuff, he had the look. He just never had the health or the control (two major parts of being a quality pitcher). Entering 2024, it was a big "make-or-break" year for the righty, as he was 24 and starting to enter the range where you'd have to move on from him if he couldn't put it together. Through his first six innings on the season, Franklin looked great; striking out five, walking none, and even earning a promotion after one start! Then... Tommy John. Franklin will miss the entire 2024 season, and likely most of 2025, rehabbing and getting his strength back. That means he'll be almost 26 years old when we see him next. Now, that's not the complete end of him. Bigge made his debut at 26, to a chorus of cheers. But Franklin will have used up most of his prospect slack by then, and may never really be a starter. I'm bummed out. There was a truly good pitcher somewhere in Franklin. It's almost assuredly never going to be found. Brody McCullough, SP, Tennessee Smokies (Double-A) This one feels a bit harsh, because when he was pitching, he looked really good again, but his season has also been derailed by injuries. Much like the aforementioned Franklin, his age puts him in a weird place as a prospect. The good news is that McCullough had done enough to get promoted to Tennessee; looked great in his debut with the Smokies; and was looking like he might have been a real find as a 10th-round pick. The bad news is that the 24-year-old has logged just 14 innings on the season, and is just nine months younger than Franklin. Given all that, if we're being fair, he belongs on this list. I don't think it's really his fault. Pitchers do this. They get hurt. We don't really know what the extent of his most recent injury is, only that he hasn't taken the mound since May 10. But considering there isn't news of him throwing or rehabbing out there, it's safe to say that his return isn't imminent, either. The hope is that it's not arm-related, and that McCullough can still get two months or so of action in Double-A for the season, but as of now, he's trending the wrong way--despite the impressive results when he's on the mound. A healthy turnaround could make this placement look bad in the future, and I'd happily own it if he can look more like the healthy guy we've seen at times. Drew Gray, SP, South Bend (High-A) When the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris this offseason, Drew Gray became the de facto top lefty in the Cubs' system. With strong draft pedigree and stuff, the lefty was considered to be a potential breakout candidate, assuming his control came around. Considering he's on this list and not the other one, you can figure out quickly that the control didn't come around. Gray has walked more hitters than he's struck out this season, and has walked three or more hitters in his last eight starts. There's simply no feel for his mechanics right now. The positive is that he's still just 21 years old and left-handed; he's going to get more chances. And while this latest run is terrible, the handful of starts before that were more encouraging (though still problematic, with a 20% walk rate in those 19 innings). Luis Devers, SP, South Bend (High-A) Coming off his MiLB Pitcher of the Year Award in 2022, Devers looked like he might have a future in the Cubs system. There were always issues in his profile: Devers only really had one plus offering (his changeup) and everything else was fairly middling. Sadly, Devers has not been able to use his one good offering to overcome his shortcomings, and coupled with injury and rehab, the prospect light on Devers is very dim right now. Back in South Bend, where he won his award in 2022, the 2024 season has been far less kind. In under 30 innings, Devers has been shelled when he's thrown strikes, sporting an ERA north of 7, and when he's not throwing strikes, has walked almost 15% of the hitters he's faced. At the age of 24, it's looking unlikely that Devers is going to have enough juice to be an MLB arm down the road. Further complicating things is that his profile just doesn't look appealing as a reliever, either. Devers is a cautionary tale of how numbers at lower levels can be deceiving at times, hiding major prospect red flags under the surface. This is why you can never stop stockpiling young talent. it's why, even with one of the most highly-rate farm systems in baseball, the team needs to enter the second half with a focus on bolstering it. Detours are more numerous than direct routes where pitching development is concerned. View full article

Yeah, that's where I'm at. If you think Moore is a catcher at the next level, then he's 1b for me (Waldschmidt remains my 1a). If you don't believe in the glove, I'm a pass.